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TOPIC: Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity

Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 1 week ago #37

2 50 bags and 18 bits.

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Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 1 week ago #38

About 180 treasure so far. Only 12 monster bits. One 50 count bag had 0. At least I've managed 1 full set. Jeez, I was hoping I bottomed out last year. I guess not. Do they have rare greaves this year? Haven't seen any of those yet either. Best pull so far = oil of enchantment. 1 more day to go.

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Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 1 week ago #39

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google doc is up if anyone wants to start adding to it
You either discover a star or you don't. You arrogant punk.

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Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 1 week ago #40

I'll add to the doc later. Just wanted to chime in: 110 pulls and 8 monster bits. Still missing fiend talon.
Playing True Dungeon since 2012.

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Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 1 week ago #41

I’ll do my totals after the con on everything but right now it looks like 7 out of 60 pulls with 4 coming out of the same 20 bag

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Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 1 week ago #42

My totals not counting today

Treasure box pulls 4 of 31
50 count bag. 0 of 50
20 count bags 9 of 120

Total = 13 out of 201

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Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 1 week ago #43

jedibcg wrote: I now know the answer to this. 2019 bits....based on what we are seeing at origins. monster bits seem low like 15% low. for me less than 10%. We will have better idea post origins when we can combine everyone’s data.


Your 15% estimate feels very high to me. Based on the numbers people are reporting, it seems more like 10%.

I was going to make a number of beads, but when we increased the requirement for 2019 trophies by 50% I decided to cut my goal in half based, on the number of runs we plan on doing. Because we play enough I don’t feel like we need to be buying bits. But now that supply seems to have been slashed to one-half to one-third of last year, I may be cutting my goal in half again. If so, I’ll be trying to unload a wad of bits. Not 2019s, of course. Those are going to be scarcer that Wertz-bits, and those sold as high as 100 a set, IIRC. Wouldn’t be surprised if people started asking even stupider prices for them.

But then I’ll feel guilty. A lot of people are going to be trying to complete Beads who won’t be able to. It’s an okay Bead at the $100-ish price point, but not worth $300.

I’m sure I won’t be the only one dumping 2016-18s. Maybe they’ll all get soaked up as Fleece for relics-plus.

I was a little disappointed when the blue Shelly cracked turned out to be a Bead vs some other relic. Not so much after this development.

I hope this was just an unfortunate mistake, but I have a feeling it isn’t.
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Last edit: by Brad Mortensen.

Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 1 week ago #44

Brad Mortensen wrote:
I was a little disappointed when the blue Shelly cracked turned out to be a Bead vs some other relic. Not so much after this development.


Congrats on the awesome pull!

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Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 1 week ago #45

Arnold wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:
I was a little disappointed when the blue Shelly cracked turned out to be a Bead vs some other relic. Not so much after this development.


Congrats on the awesome pull!


That is an amazing pull. Congrats indeed.
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Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 6 days ago #46

152 pulls. My group pulled 3 total bead sets with some extra fiend talons and slayer tentacles. So 150= 22 monster bits for us.
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Last edit: by Edward Deangelis.

Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 6 days ago #47

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Mike of TD post Origins said he could not give me the percentage that monster bits were (not because he would not but because he wasn't certain what it was). When I asked is if was as low as 10% he said he felt it couldn't be that low. Now I am not saying it isn't 10% because I definitely drew less than that. If might be precents were fine but the mix was bad and we will be monster heavy at Gen Con. I told Mike once I had more data (plug to get people to fill in the spreadsheet) I would contact him with what we have. I know there are some folks that had higher than 10%. I haven't heard anyone having 20%.

2016-2017 Season
Gen Con 2016 17.72%
GHC 2016 15.23%
TDC 2017 15.67%
Orgins 2017 16.10%

2017-2018 Season
Gen Con 2017 17.98%
GHC 2017 18.63%
Origins 2018 20.10%

2018-2019 Season
Origins 2018 N1 22.54%
Gen Con 23.16%
GHC 20.91%
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Speculation on Bead of the Lucky Traveler / Monster Bit Scarcity 5 months 6 days ago #48

On the positive side, if the monster tokens are more scarce this year, maybe that will free up some of the 2016-2018 monster tokens for Golden Fleece - I still need to buy some more. :)

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