TOPIC: Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece?

Kirk Bauer wrote: I'll also say, in my limited experience as a DM in a puzzle run at GenCon, that a surprising percent of runs are just normal players, not like us. Perhaps puzzle runs are different. But my guess is about 10% of players draw 18 tokens, 10% draw 7 tokens, and 80% draw 3 tokens. Obviously a wild, but educated, guess. That works out to an average number of 5 draws per player.

And with Origins being a repeat of GenCon, I'm guessing, if the runs all sell out, it will be significantly more novice players rather than veterans.

Sure, that's not too far off of my estimate:

8000 runs at gencon:
800*18 tokens
7200*3 tokens

36,000 treasure pulls.

Assume 15% monster bits, and 1/2 of them never circulate: 270 circulating fleece from GenCon.

Let's assume Origins has 1/2 the treasure pulls of GC. Another 135 circulating fleece.

That's supply.

I'm still looking for an explanation as to how this expanded player base is going to generate demand for 300 Golden Fleece in 1 year.

Are they going to transmute 100 legendaries, 1000 Greater Arcane Scroll Tube, and 1000 Belt of Blessed Constitution, all with monster bits instead of GP? I just don't see it.

Let alone trophies from TDC, future PAX presentations, anything at WYC, GHC, etc., etc..

I think the bigger impact will come from Nuggets

Matthew Hayward wrote:

James J Krot wrote: I am stocking up on fleeces since I have a ton of transmutes coming up with them.

This confuses me.

The only things that take Fleece in their recipe are legendaries.

Do you have a ton of legendaries in your transmute pipeline?

Can't be Rings of Heroism. The date has passed on those.

However, the RoH does demonstrate that Fleeces may be needed for things other than legendaries.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

James J Krot wrote: I am stocking up on fleeces since I have a ton of transmutes coming up with them.

This confuses me.

The only things that take Fleece in their recipe are legendaries.

Do you have a ton of legendaries in your transmute pipeline?

As a reminder, the recent Ring of Heroism also required a Golden Fleece. Although the deadline has now passed, this did take a lot of Fleeces out of circulation.

Incognito wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

James J Krot wrote: I am stocking up on fleeces since I have a ton of transmutes coming up with them.

This confuses me.

The only things that take Fleece in their recipe are legendaries.

Do you have a ton of legendaries in your transmute pipeline?

As a reminder, the recent Ring of Heroism also required a Golden Fleece. Although the deadline has now passed, this did take a lot of Fleeces out of circulation.

Yes. I'm aware.

I'm concerned with the present and future.

And presently, and as far as we know in the future, there are no sinks for monster bits other than a few low level transmutes and legendaries.

I would welcome Fleece in more recipes, I'd suggest it start being included in every Relic+ token to begin with (possibly excepting relics that require some specific list of particular monster bits).

I think requiring all Relics to need a Fleece is a bit much. If memory serves, the Relics were meant to be transmutable by mid level buyers? How many treasure pulls do those players get, on average? If there is a possible glut of Fleece, what about the values of Oil, Bismuth, and Aragonite? Should we increase those in recipes as well? There will be a lot of extra Rare and Uncommon tokens floating around.

I would be on board with more optional uses of the monster bits, like we have had with the 3 and 4 star recipes.

Matthew Hayward wrote:
Sure, that's not too far off of my estimate:

Let's assume Origins has 1/2 the treasure pulls of GC. Another 135 circulating fleece.

Why would we make that assumption there are not half the number of runs. There is not yet even half of those runs sold out. There is no ghosting for treasure. Currently (this can of course change) expecting 1/4 the pulls of Gen Con seems a overly friendly estimate.

David Harris last had us at 749/2100 tickets sold at Origins. Currently that is not 10 percent of GC tickets. If all tickets sold it would get us just over 1/4. Based on the first years of wyc and ghc I would be very surprised by a sell out.

Matthew Hayward wrote: Let's assume Origins has 1/2 the treasure pulls of GC. Another 135 circulating fleece

There are going to be way fewer pulls at Origins. GenCon has about 8,000 TD tickets. Origins will have about 1,100 by my math (the dungeon is open 8 hours per day for 3 days; 40 runs per day, minus about 100 for breaks). I'd also suspect the average player to more likely to draw just 3 or 4 treasure tokens.

I think the other conventions added together are going to add about a 25% bump to treasure draws. Not trivial, but not as significant as you have assumed.

Kirk Bauer wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Let's assume Origins has 1/2 the treasure pulls of GC. Another 135 circulating fleece

There are going to be way fewer pulls at Origins. GenCon has about 8,000 TD tickets. Origins will have about 1,100 by my math (the dungeon is open 8 hours per day for 3 days; 40 runs per day, minus about 100 for breaks). I'd also suspect the average player to more likely to draw just 3 or 4 treasure tokens.

I think the other conventions added together are going to add about a 25% bump to treasure draws. Not trivial, but not as significant as you have assumed.

And remember:
1) (most significant in my mind) the Nuggets will raise the loot cap by six (a 33% increase) - that alone could add more bits than all the satellite cons together, without the benefit of bringing in more players.
1a) and Nuggets increase the extra loot from ALL cons.
2) many newbies will keep their loot as souvenirs, or lose them in the back of the closet.
3) anti-ghosting restrictions will decrease the amount of treasure drawn, and/or give the opportunity for more newbies to join in - whether they will is a matter of speculation.
4) all the four-point transmutes so far allows bits instead of gold.

Not saying you're wrong to be concerned. You raise many of the same issues that others have whenever a new URTE is debated. It just feels like the blame is shifting from the root cause onto new players.

Kirk Bauer wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Let's assume Origins has 1/2 the treasure pulls of GC. Another 135 circulating fleece

There are going to be way fewer pulls at Origins. GenCon has about 8,000 TD tickets. Origins will have about 1,100 by my math (the dungeon is open 8 hours per day for 3 days; 40 runs per day, minus about 100 for breaks). I'd also suspect the average player to more likely to draw just 3 or 4 treasure tokens.

I think the other conventions added together are going to add about a 25% bump to treasure draws. Not trivial, but not as significant as you have assumed.

Are you calculating 2 dungeons? Because I believe it is 2100 tickets at Origins. At least that is what David Harris counted in this thread.

www.truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=601&id=244822

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Kirk Bauer wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Let's assume Origins has 1/2 the treasure pulls of GC. Another 135 circulating fleece

There are going to be way fewer pulls at Origins. GenCon has about 8,000 TD tickets. Origins will have about 1,100 by my math (the dungeon is open 8 hours per day for 3 days; 40 runs per day, minus about 100 for breaks). I'd also suspect the average player to more likely to draw just 3 or 4 treasure tokens.

I think the other conventions added together are going to add about a 25% bump to treasure draws. Not trivial, but not as significant as you have assumed.

And remember:
1) (most significant in my mind) the Nuggets will raise the loot cap by six (a 33% increase) - that alone could add more bits than all the satellite cons together, without the benefit of bringing in more players.
1a) and Nuggets increase the extra loot from ALL cons.
2) many newbies will keep their loot as souvenirs, or lose them in the back of the closet.
3) anti-ghosting restrictions will decrease the amount of treasure drawn, and/or give the opportunity for more newbies to join in - whether they will is a matter of speculation.
4) all the four-point transmutes so far allows bits instead of gold.

Not saying you're wrong to be concerned. You raise many of the same issues that others have whenever a new URTE is debated. It just feels like the blame is shifting from the root cause onto new players.

1. I think your math is off. That would be assuming that there are a full set of Nuggets on every run. We know that is not going to be the case.
1a. Not disagreeing with that fact that it will increase the number of draws just that your increase percentage is incorrect.

jedibcg wrote:

Kirk Bauer wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Let's assume Origins has 1/2 the treasure pulls of GC. Another 135 circulating fleece

There are going to be way fewer pulls at Origins. GenCon has about 8,000 TD tickets. Origins will have about 1,100 by my math (the dungeon is open 8 hours per day for 3 days; 40 runs per day, minus about 100 for breaks). I'd also suspect the average player to more likely to draw just 3 or 4 treasure tokens.

I think the other conventions added together are going to add about a 25% bump to treasure draws. Not trivial, but not as significant as you have assumed.

Are you calculating 2 dungeons? Because I believe it is 2100 tickets at Origins. At least that is what David Harris counted in this thread.

www.truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=601&id=244822

Oops, double that for the two dungeons. But still it is 25% of the number of runs at GenCon, assuming they all sell out. And I still suspect the average number of draws to be lower because there will be more first-timers (hopefully?).