TOPIC: Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece?

I noted that Kirk's web store is listing 80+ Golden Fleece at $69.95 each.

Given my observation of this historical range on fleece of going for $60-90 this seemed like a great deal (I am listing them for $5 more) - although a pretty big overhang (80+ items when the only things currently accepting fleece in the recipe are legendaries.


Then I got to thinking about TDs expansion over the last few years to WYC, then GHC, and now Origins/TDC. It looks like we can count on 2 TD presentations a year, with possibly expansion into 3 or even 4 some years.


I think this is going to lead to a pretty substantial devaluing of Golden Fleece unless it starts to show up in more recipes.

To some demand for all tokens are devalued a bit by an increased supply of treasure pulls, but the impact is much more severe for monster trophies.

Consider, using some order of magnitude estimates:

Perhaps there are 50 8k orders worth of tokens sold each year
Perhaps there are 60,000 treasure pulls at Gen Con
And perhaps there are another 30,000 treasure pulls at additional other cons

Let's assume further that treasure pulls are 80% rares and uncommons, 15% monster bits, and 5% other

Then for rares and uncommons we roughly have:

* 144,000 rares and uncommons from token sales
* 48,000 rares and uncommons from Gen Con
* 24,000 rares and uncommons from other cons

The other cons here increase supply from 192,000 to 216,000, or an increase of 12.5%

For monster bits we have:

* 0 from token sales
* 9,000 from Gen Con
* 4,500 from other cons

The other cons here increase supply from 9,000 to 13,500, or an increase of 50%


While you might quibble with any of these numbers, it isn't going to change the conclusion that new cons increase the supply of monster trophies by:

(new con monster trophies + gen con monster trophies) / ( gen con mosnter trophies )

which is always going to be larger than:

( new con rares and uncommons + gen con rares and uncommons + token sales rares and uncommons ) / ( gen con rares and uncommons + token sales rares an uncommons )


So - forecast - unless we start getting some recipes for Golden Fleece, they are headed to 0, zip, nada in value - because there is not going to be 1 legendary made for every 70 treasures pulled (which roughly generates a fleece) - and so supply will always outpace demand.


Ring of Heroism was a great sink of Golden Fleece.


I'd recommend all future Eldritch and Grand Eldrich require a Golden Fleece, and that maybe we start making all relics include it also.

On the others hand, more players equals more demand, so maybe that will soak up more Fleece and everything else. Hard to tell.

Next month I will finish my circut of TD runs across all the cons that featured full dungeons.

Gen Con; Game Hole Con; True Dungeon Celebration and Origins. I can say I am not yet swimming in Fleece. I have 1 and have 11 loose monster bits. I have been able to trade away most of my extra monster bits so there seems to still be demand for them. We will see after Origins if I am able to move any 2016 MB.


So currently I am agreeing with Brad that we shall see what the extra cons do to the token economy.

Two thoughts

Will there be a 3c or 4c item at the end of this story arc? That will soak up a lot of monster bits.

Will there be other transmutes that have monster bits/gold as an ingredient option? Conventional wisdom to this point has been to always use gold. That could change. If monster bits are more plentiful that may become the preferred option.

I agree that anything _might_ happen.

But the only _likely_ thing to happen in the face of a ~50% or more increase in the supply of Fleece, with the only sinks being Legendary tokens, collectors, the trash can, and low level transmutes that use them as optional ingredients is that their value will decline.

Simple answer to this is making the Fleece a more useful ingredient. Allow it to be a "wild card" ingredient in all future transmutes, meaning, for example, if you don't have aragonite you may substitute a Fleece for it in your ingredient list.

Harlax wrote: Two thoughts

Will there be a 3c or 4c item at the end of this story arc? That will soak up a lot of monster bits.

Will there be other transmutes that have monster bits/gold as an ingredient option? Conventional wisdom to this point has been to always use gold. That could change. If monster bits are more plentiful that may become the preferred option.

I'd MUCH rather have monster tokens get burned up through 3C or 4C transmutes, and as optional costs on regular transmutes, than requiring Golden Fleece for Eldritch Tokens.

Matthew Hayward wrote: I noted that Kirk's web store is listing 80+ Golden Fleece at $69.95 each.

Given my observation of this historical range on fleece of going for $60-90 this seemed like a great deal (I am listing them for $5 more) - although a pretty big overhang (80+ items when the only things currently accepting fleece in the recipe are legendaries.


Then I got to thinking about TDs expansion over the last few years to WYC, then GHC, and now Origins/TDC. It looks like we can count on 2 TD presentations a year, with possibly expansion into 3 or even 4 some years.


I think this is going to lead to a pretty substantial devaluing of Golden Fleece unless it starts to show up in more recipes.

To some demand for all tokens are devalued a bit by an increased supply of treasure pulls, but the impact is much more severe for monster trophies.

Consider, using some order of magnitude estimates:

Perhaps there are 50 8k orders worth of tokens sold each year
Perhaps there are 60,000 treasure pulls at Gen Con
And perhaps there are another 30,000 treasure pulls at additional other cons

Let's assume further that treasure pulls are 80% rares and uncommons, 15% monster bits, and 5% other

Then for rares and uncommons we roughly have:

* 144,000 rares and uncommons from token sales
* 48,000 rares and uncommons from Gen Con
* 24,000 rares and uncommons from other cons

The other cons here increase supply from 192,000 to 216,000, or an increase of 12.5%

For monster bits we have:

* 0 from token sales
* 9,000 from Gen Con
* 4,500 from other cons

The other cons here increase supply from 9,000 to 13,500, or an increase of 50%


While you might quibble with any of these numbers, it isn't going to change the conclusion that new cons increase the supply of monster trophies by:

(new con monster trophies + gen con monster trophies) / ( gen con mosnter trophies )

which is always going to be larger than:

( new con rares and uncommons + gen con rares and uncommons + token sales rares and uncommons ) / ( gen con rares and uncommons + token sales rares an uncommons )


So - forecast - unless we start getting some recipes for Golden Fleece, they are headed to 0, zip, nada in value - because there is not going to be 1 legendary made for every 70 treasures pulled (which roughly generates a fleece) - and so supply will always outpace demand.


Ring of Heroism was a great sink of Golden Fleece.


I'd recommend all future Eldritch and Grand Eldrich require a Golden Fleece, and that maybe we start making all relics include it also.

I completely agree. I would only add that the 3 or 4 year story arc that the monster bits were also used for will be extremely devalued if we don't do something demanding more bits.

Ed

That was actually a mistake, I don't have that many to sell at that price

But I think the big thing you are missing is increased player base. If the player base expands at the same rate as the new runs then we won't have a big surplus of trophies. In fact, if some of the new players get really into tokens, it could actually cause a bit of a surge in demand since they may try to catch up on the older legendaries.

I also hope we see more recipes like the Fallen Star Mushroom that take a specific combination of monster trophies.

Kirk Bauer wrote:
I also hope we see more recipes like the Fallen Star Mushroom that take a specific combination of monster trophies.

^^^^^^^^^^^

Kirk Bauer wrote: That was actually a mistake, I don't have that many to sell at that price

Oh, I thought that Kirk was just trying to corner the market on Fleeces....

I thought the title said 'Swimming in Feces'. I feel sort of disappointed now.....