Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me

TOPIC: Question about Golden Ticket distribution

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #25

Raven wrote: Want an interesting bit of trivia?

The process for inserting GTs or URs into sealed packs has changed over the years. Many years ago, the fine folks at TD would cut open a (presumably) factory-sealed set of tokens, swap out a Common for an UR, and re-seal the pack using their own heat-wrap. This wrap was different from the factory wrap, and it was possible for an observant buyer to spot a pack containing a UR, just based on the wrapping. Occasionally this would disrupt the pattern of plats, too.
Once someone even spotted an UR pack in a picture posted to the forums, where someone took a shot of all their sealed packs sitting on a table, waiting to be opened.

TD has since changed their system, because now the "special" packs are wrapped exactly like the regular packs. Same cellophane, same level of heat, same little "True Dungeon" logo'd sticker on the sides. (If anyone has found a way to tell them apart, they haven't come forward with it!)

Another interesting data point. This year when I pulled an UR out of one of my sealed packs the order of the pack was R, UC, C. Doesn't help finding the UR packs just looking at them, but I suspected I was getting one about a second before I found it. The other weird thing for me is random URs tend to be in the very last packs in my orders. The above example was literally my 3rd to last pack I had to open. The random UR I pulled before that was in the absolute last pack from an order.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #26

another point to remember is that you don't always get an extra UR.

I had a 2k order (in one order) last year with no 00.

Based on statements made an 8K order does not guarantee a GT due to the sheer number of tokens being made.

I wish everyone who orders luck.

just not saying good luck or bad luck till I get mine first ;)
*mental note* always listen to Jeff

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #27

Brad wrote: I had a 2k order (in one order) last year with no 00.


The website makes it sound like you are guaranteed at least 2 00s in a $2k order. My assumption was that literally every 100th 10-pack has an UR from the factory and Jeff simply takes the token packs sequentially. So this seems like it was a mistake (or is it possible you missed them?).
My online token shop: www.tdtavern.com

We buy, sell, and trade True Dungeon tokens. We also have a convenient consignment program where you can sell your own tokens.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #28

  • Raven
  • Raven's Avatar
  • Away
  • Hero Member +2
  • Hero Member +2
  • "Oooooh, Shiny!"
  • Posts: 6351

Brad Mortensen wrote: I think the simplest scenario is most likely: Jeff keeps a tally of orders, and every 1,000th pack he ships out (to use the above sample numbers just for illustration) gets a GT thrown in.


Hm. While I acknowledge it's possible, I don't think this is likely for 2 reasons:

1) Jeff stated previously (some years ago, so I acknowledge it could be out of date) that he doesn't know who gets the GTs.

If he was inserting them into orders as they ship out, he would know. Not be able to predict but at least know who was getting a pack with a GT in it.

2) If they were being sent with every 1,000 packs (or 1,500, or whatever the number) they would have an incredibly even distribution. We would not have the scenario where someone buys $8K of tokens and gets 2 GTs, and someone else buys $16K and gets just one GT.

The reason I don't think that's likely is that Jeff announced early this year that some big token buyers wouldn't be guaranteed a GT. In your scenario, every "big enough" buyer (whatever that means) would be guaranteed at least one. But maybe I read too much into it.


Yeah. Some years ago, people determined that if you bought $8K of tokens, you were pretty much guaranteed a GT. At the time "big" token buyer was around the 8K level.

Since then, the sheer number of tokens being purchased means that even buying $10 or $16 K doesn't guarantee you'll get one. You probably will with a $16K order, and I don't know anyone who ordered $24K or higher who didn't get one (or more!).... but at that point you're not looking at "big token buyers", you're looking at "token resellers."

Regardless, that's neither here nor there. Jeff does whatever he does, and in the absence of information it's impossible to game the system to maximize your odds of a GT - other than buying lots of tokens, of course.


Agreed!
Perhaps that's one of the reasons the formula is kept secret ; )
"THERE WILL NEVER BE A TOKEN EQUAL TO A GOOD BRAIN!"- Smakdown

Check out these awesome resources:
Cranston's Character Generator for iDevices or Android
Amorgen's Excel Character Generator
And the ever-useful Token DataBase , expertly maintained by Druegar.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #29

Raven wrote: TD has since changed their system, because now the "special" packs are wrapped exactly like the regular packs. Same cellophane, same level of heat, same little "True Dungeon" logo'd sticker on the sides. (If anyone has found a way to tell them apart, they haven't come forward with it!)

Raven, I believe you are wrong.

The "00" UR packs are packaged slightly differently, but how they are packaged differently varies each year. For example, one year the position of the logo sticker was different for the 00 packs.

JimC, who used to buy lots of tokens every year, enjoyed studying this issue and he noted that every year there was a pattern to the "00" packs. After opening enough packs for the given year, he was able to fairly reliably (like 9 times out of 10) predict whether a given random pack would contain a UR.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #30

  • Raven
  • Raven's Avatar
  • Away
  • Hero Member +2
  • Hero Member +2
  • "Oooooh, Shiny!"
  • Posts: 6351

Kirk Bauer wrote: It does sound like your odds are the same regardless of when you order, unless of course you order from a second print run or something...


True dat.

To be fair, on one of the years when they sold out and all 20 of the Golden Tickets where gone, Jeff ordered a second print run (half the size of the first) and inserted 10 Silver Tickets (for a Friday "GT" run). This was done in order to keep the odds the same for people who purchased early or later.

I believe there was another year when tokens sold out, Jeff ordered a 2nd print run, and a HoP was inserted at the same ratio as the Golden Tickets had been.

Do the GT 10-packs look different? I wonder if the process you described is accurate except it is the factory that puts the GT tokens in. Jeff could certainly order one set with GTs and another without (for sale at GenCon).


I don't think the packs containing GTs look any different, but I don't have a large enough sample to be statistically significant. (One year I opened a pack which felt different, and I thought it might have an UR - it had a GT instead! The other years, I had no clue.)
"THERE WILL NEVER BE A TOKEN EQUAL TO A GOOD BRAIN!"- Smakdown

Check out these awesome resources:
Cranston's Character Generator for iDevices or Android
Amorgen's Excel Character Generator
And the ever-useful Token DataBase , expertly maintained by Druegar.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #31

  • Raven
  • Raven's Avatar
  • Away
  • Hero Member +2
  • Hero Member +2
  • "Oooooh, Shiny!"
  • Posts: 6351

Incognito wrote: Raven, I believe you are wrong.

The "00" UR packs are packaged slightly differently, but how they are packaged differently varies each year. For example, one year the position of the logo sticker was different for the 00 packs.

JimC, who used to buy lots of tokens every year, enjoyed studying this issue and he noted that every year there was a pattern to the "00" packs. After opening enough packs for the given year, he was able to fairly reliably (like 9 times out of 10) predict whether a given random pack would contain a UR.


Ooooh, now that is interesting!

I acknowledge that someone like JimC ordering hundreds and hundreds of packs would have a better chance of noticing a slight change in the packing style. Also, it's quite possible that TD has changed their system over the years - perhaps several times - but due to inconsistencies they haven't quite got it down pat yet. Or they've got one UR-inserter who is very skilled, and another who is sloppy adding the little stickers or something.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'll go whimper a little at the thought of opening enough token packs that "9 times out of 10" is a relevant phrase when detecting URs.
"THERE WILL NEVER BE A TOKEN EQUAL TO A GOOD BRAIN!"- Smakdown

Check out these awesome resources:
Cranston's Character Generator for iDevices or Android
Amorgen's Excel Character Generator
And the ever-useful Token DataBase , expertly maintained by Druegar.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #32

Kirk Bauer wrote:

Brad wrote: I had a 2k order (in one order) last year with no 00.


The website makes it sound like you are guaranteed at least 2 00s in a $2k order. My assumption was that literally every 100th 10-pack has an UR from the factory and Jeff simply takes the token packs sequentially. So this seems like it was a mistake (or is it possible you missed them?).


It is random chance still, there are no guarantees

Luck goes both ways the first time I ever got a GT was on a single pyp purchase
*mental note* always listen to Jeff

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #33

Raven wrote: 1) Jeff stated previously (some years ago, so I acknowledge it could be out of date) that he doesn't know who gets the GTs.

That could simply mean that Jeff himself isn't personally packing the orders for shipment.

Raven wrote: 2) If they were being sent with every 1,000 packs (or 1,500, or whatever the number) they would have an incredibly even distribution.

Sure, but first of all although most of the big token buyers frequent the forums, we don't hear about all of the GTs that get picked up. Plus, people aren't evenly ordering tokens; there are peaks and valleys in the amount of tokens shipping out from week to week, month to month. Finally, there could be some random element easily thrown in while basically keeping the same system I outlined: Instead of simply throwing in a GT every X packs, a die could be rolled every X packs to see if it gets a GT.

But I am probably way off. Just no way to know. I have suspected for quite some time that the chances of getting a bonus UR and a GT depend on your token ordering history, and the bonus tokens are strategically given out to encourage order behavior.

For instance, I didn't order any tokens until after playing my first year. That order was a simple $250 PYP, and I got a bonus UR. It could have been complete chance, but I also think it possible it was intentional. Maybe Jeff said "Ah, a new player got bit by the bug and decided to go in for a PYP order. Let me toss in another UR to encourage him."

Three years later, I deviated from my usual mere $250 and instead spent $2,000. And got a GT. I kind of saw that as another "thanks for upgrading!" kind of encouragement nudge.

In the same vein, I wouldn't be surprised if he sometimes thinks, when a big order comes through, along the lines of "oh, another huge order from XYZ. I've given them some nice bonuses over the years, so...no GT for them this time."

Or maybe it's just all random. :P

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #34

  • Raven
  • Raven's Avatar
  • Away
  • Hero Member +2
  • Hero Member +2
  • "Oooooh, Shiny!"
  • Posts: 6351

Garrison wrote: That could simply mean that Jeff himself isn't personally packing the orders for shipment.


True dat. I think Jeff does a lot of the orders himself, tho.

Raven wrote: 2) If they were being sent with every 1,000 packs (or 1,500, or whatever the number) they would have an incredibly even distribution.

Sure, but first of all although most of the big token buyers frequent the forums, we don't hear about all of the GTs that get picked up. Plus, people aren't evenly ordering tokens; there are peaks and valleys in the amount of tokens shipping out from week to week, month to month.[/quote]
Yes, there's a significant amount of token traffic which the forumites don't see. What i was saying, though was that someone ordering a single *very large* order would be able to see a very predictable pattern to the GT distribution, if this was the case.

And ya know what? Maybe they do! Perhaps the really big buyers already cracked the mysterious Token Code, and just haven't shared that info with the rest of us ; )

To me, trying to figure out how the token ordering/GT distribution works is a lot like trying to figure out how a trick lock opens.

"When I work it like this, this happens. When someone else tried that, they got such'n'such a result. So the mechanism inside the lock must be a sliding bar, which moves back and forth, based on the direction which faces up at the time."

I'm not trying to "game the system" so much as understand the mechanics governing the game. It won't make a big difference to my token ordering whether I know how it works... but it is a lot of fun to speculate!

Finally, there could be some random element easily thrown in while basically keeping the same system I outlined: Instead of simply throwing in a GT every X packs, a die could be rolled every X packs to see if it gets a GT.


Highly unlikely. What if the dice odds were rolling high, and all the GTs were distributed long before the tokens were sold out? Would they add more GTs to give the last buyers the same odds, or would they be out of luck? Conversely, what if the dice was rolling low? Would Jeff have to order more tokens to distribute until the die rolled up enough "hits" to distribute all the GTs?

But I am probably way off. Just no way to know. I have suspected for quite some time that the chances of getting a bonus UR and a GT depend on your token ordering history, and the bonus tokens are strategically given out to encourage order behavior.


While I can't outright deny it, I think the odds of that being the case are incredibly low. Not only would it be a highly questionable business practice, but one which - if it became known - could really hurt TD. I don't think Jeff would do that.

I'm also remembering some of the early years of TD, when the GTs were first going out, and Jeff was on the forums following the winners thread... He posted that he was sad to see some of the bigger buyers (who he had hoped would find a GT) were not finding them at all. Everyone assumed that Gary (Gearon) would get a GT, but nope. Some were found by newbies. Some were found by merchants who were less-than-popular in the day. Some were not found (or not claimed) at all.

In the end, I am comfortable with accepting Jeff's statement that they are "randomly distributed." Speculations are fun, but they are just speculations.
"THERE WILL NEVER BE A TOKEN EQUAL TO A GOOD BRAIN!"- Smakdown

Check out these awesome resources:
Cranston's Character Generator for iDevices or Android
Amorgen's Excel Character Generator
And the ever-useful Token DataBase , expertly maintained by Druegar.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #35

I can verify incognito's statement about subtle differences in the packs. speaking from experience, I have opened many thousands of packs over the years and have become quite adept at spotting the "00, GT, odd", packs.

when all else fails... use the force. :whistle:
Founder of Tokenholics Anonymous.
TD Patron since 2005.
Completed 20 runs at GC 2017.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Last edit: by smakdown.

Re: Question about Golden Ticket distribution 4 years 10 months ago #36

Garrison wrote: But I am probably way off. Just no way to know. I have suspected for quite some time that the chances of getting a bonus UR and a GT depend on your token ordering history, and the bonus tokens are strategically given out to encourage order behavior.

For instance, I didn't order any tokens until after playing my first year. That order was a simple $250 PYP, and I got a bonus UR. It could have been complete chance, but I also think it possible it was intentional. Maybe Jeff said "Ah, a new player got bit by the bug and decided to go in for a PYP order. Let me toss in another UR to encourage him."

Three years later, I deviated from my usual mere $250 and instead spent $2,000. And got a GT. I kind of saw that as another "thanks for upgrading!" kind of encouragement nudge.

In the same vein, I wouldn't be surprised if he sometimes thinks, when a big order comes through, along the lines of "oh, another huge order from XYZ. I've given them some nice bonuses over the years, so...no GT for them this time."


I would be exceptionally unhappy if any of this were to be true, and highly doubt it, offhand.
Blimey!

Caution: May contain cynicism and snark. Handle with care.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Time to create page: 0.258 seconds