TOPIC: Question about Golden Ticket distribution

Brad Mortensen wrote: Dunno. But in the past, the condensed packs have sold out before the others and he didn't make more. Maybe things have changed, because he still had some here at the end.

It's true - when the condensed packs sell out, they are gone. Jeff does not (generally) make more.

This year, with condensed packs available "at the end," Jeff was up front about the fact that they were being assembled out of treasure-generator stock. These are not the same packs which were available for sale at the beginning. None of them will have GTs in them.

Brad Mortensen wrote: Dunno. But in the past, the condensed packs have sold out before the others and he didn't make more. Maybe things have changed, because he still had some here at the end. Or maybe he just kept making them while there were PYPs left over.

I think he probably makes an assumption - "we'll sell X condensed and Y not" and distributes GTs accordingly. If he makes half now and half later, he probably puts in half the GTs each time. His goal seems to be to get them all found before GenCon, but it doesn't always happen.

Jeff specifically stated that the after GenCon condensed packs were being made using the left over treasure tokens due to selling out of 2014 tokens with people wanting more.

Condensed tokens were sold out months ago and only recently re-added

Raven wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: Dunno. But in the past, the condensed packs have sold out before the others and he didn't make more. Maybe things have changed, because he still had some here at the end.

It's true - when the condensed packs sell out, they are gone. Jeff does not (generally) make more.

This year, with condensed packs available "at the end," Jeff was up front about the fact that they were being assembled out of treasure-generator stock. These are not the same packs which were available for sale at the beginning. None of them will have GTs in them.

Hmm.. Interesting.

Something to look for in my mass order next year as a random curiosity

Kirk Bauer wrote: Has anybody found a GT in a pack purchased at GenCon

Yes!

or in the freebie pack before a run?

Nope.

If not then how did they guarantee that all (or at least most) Golden Tickets were gone before GenCon?

There's no guarantee... but at this point Jeff has gotten pretty good at judging the volume of token sales. (Definitely better than in the days whre he had to order emergency 2nd printings!)

To answer your (above) questions more completely....

The freebie packs before the run are not part of the token pre-sales. While they have a .01% chance of an UR, none of them have GTs in them. Jeff has to set these packs aside so they will always have enough for the dungeon runs.
(It would be a #$%^-storm if somehow pre-con sales sold ALL the treasure packs, and there were none available for people going on runs!)

One year (when we were still playing in the Marriott) some GTs were not found before the Con started. They were mixed in with regular tokens for sale, and if someone pulled a GT after the GT run, it could be turned in for an UR of your choice. I remember someone pulling a GT on the Friday of the Con.

In condensed pack, you get four bags. One has the condensed trade items. The second has 240 UCs (24 of which are platinum). A small bag containing your PYPs. The last bag has 120 rares, 1 UR (00 pack), 20% chance of a second UR, and a GT if you snagged one.

Raven wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: Dunno. But in the past, the condensed packs have sold out before the others and he didn't make more. Maybe things have changed, because he still had some here at the end.

It's true - when the condensed packs sell out, they are gone. Jeff does not (generally) make more.

This year, with condensed packs available "at the end," Jeff was up front about the fact that they were being assembled out of treasure-generator stock. These are not the same packs which were available for sale at the beginning. None of them will have GTs in them.

Makes sense. I'd bought all I was going to until next year, so I wasn't paying attention and missed that bit. Cool.

Raven,

You have reaffirmed your elite Rogue abilities with some great theories that make quite a bit of sense! It does sound like your odds are the same regardless of when you order, unless of course you order from a second print run or something...

Do the GT 10-packs look different? I wonder if the process you described is accurate except it is the factory that puts the GT tokens in. Jeff could certainly order one set with GTs and another without (for sale at GenCon).

I don't think there is any reason to assume the Golden Tickets are divided between condensed packs and regular packs at all.

I think the simplest scenario is most likely: Jeff keeps a tally of orders, and every 1,000th pack he ships out (to use the above sample numbers just for illustration) he tosses in a GT.

Garrison wrote: I don't think there is any reason to assume the Golden Tickets are divided between condensed packs and regular packs at all.

I think the simplest scenario is most likely: Jeff keeps a tally of orders, and every 1,000th pack he ships out (to use the above sample numbers just for illustration) gets a GT thrown in.

Except that we know GT come in condensed packs and it appears that GT also come in sealed pack orders as a token in a sealed pack.

Arcanist Kolixela wrote:

Garrison wrote: I don't think there is any reason to assume the Golden Tickets are divided between condensed packs and regular packs at all.

I think the simplest scenario is most likely: Jeff keeps a tally of orders, and every 1,000th pack he ships out (to use the above sample numbers just for illustration) gets a GT thrown in.

Except that we know GT come in condensed packs and it appears that GT also come in sealed pack orders as a token in a sealed pack.

Correct, I was lucky enough to open up two ten-packs with GTs last year. These were wrapped up in the usual bundle of ten 10-packs. But one guy on my GT run only bought a single 10-pack and found one. This makes me think it is done at the factory but otherwise using the method Raven described.

He does state that condensed packs have the same chance of a GT as regular packs, so those he has to reserve separate from the 10-packs.

Garrison wrote: I don't think there is any reason to assume the Golden Tickets are divided between condensed packs and regular packs at all.

I think the simplest scenario is most likely: Jeff keeps a tally of orders, and every 1,000th pack he ships out (to use the above sample numbers just for illustration) gets a GT thrown in.

The reason I don't think that's likely is that Jeff announced early this year that some big token buyers wouldn't be guaranteed a GT. In your scenario, every "big enough" buyer (whatever that means) would be guaranteed at least one. But maybe I read too much into it.

Regardless, that's neither here nor there. Jeff does whatever he does, and in the absence of information it's impossible to game the system to maximize your odds of a GT - other than buying lots of tokens, of course. Early or late, lump or spread out - it comes down to luck.

Besides, if I knew how to draw GTs reliably I'd tell you to do the opposite so I could get them all bwahahaha!

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: Except that we know GT come in condensed packs and it appears that GT also come in sealed pack orders as a token in a sealed pack.

They may come in sealed packs by default, which I imagine he could receive in a separate box. When his tally says a sealed pack order should contain a golden ticket, he takes one of the GT packs as part of that order. If a condensed pack needs a GT, he can easily open a GT pack to get the single GT and toss it into the bag with the 120 rares.

Of course, this is all conjecture. It's just how I would handle it if I were Jeff.