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TOPIC: 2014 Treasure Pulls

Re: 2014 Treasure Pulls 9 years 11 months ago #61

Statistically speaking if a random person pulls 400 tokens with a 1% chance of pulling a Special token they should pull 4.

They might pull 5 or 6, they might pull 3 or 2.
If they pull 1 out of 400 the math says the stated percentages were off.

I understand there are varying factors, I'm just referencing the core math.

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Re: 2014 Treasure Pulls 9 years 11 months ago #62

Arcanist Kolixela wrote: Statistically speaking if a random person pulls 400 tokens with a 1% chance of pulling a Special token they should pull 4.

They might pull 5 or 6, they might pull 3 or 2.
If they pull 1 out of 400 the math says the stated percentages were off.

I understand there are varying factors, I'm just referencing the core math.


This is not entirely true. If there were only 400 tokens, this is true. There were more than 30 buckets of mixed tokens, so even with 400 pulls you had a very small sample. Yes, it seems rough, but it can happen.

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Re: 2014 Treasure Pulls 9 years 11 months ago #63

Cranston wrote: Actually, that is the probability of getting one and only one UR. To reach 95% confidence you need to account for the probabilities of getting more than one.


One? Oh, I calculated the probability of getting zero. The probability of getting exactly one special is (.99^399)*(.01^1)*400, which comes out to about 7.25%.

It's worth noting that the most common result, getting exactly four, actually happens less than 20% of the time. You have a 43% chance of getting less than four and a 37% chance of getting more than four.

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Last edit: by Allen John.

Re: 2014 Treasure Pulls 9 years 11 months ago #64

Since we are discussing pull percentages:

Rares: 13 (33%)
Uncommons: 21 (51%)
Monster Bits: 7 (17%)

As an aside, I did three runs and got all but one of the monster bits on the first run (the Viper Puzzle GT run).

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Re: 2014 Treasure Pulls 9 years 11 months ago #65

My only noteworthy pull was a 1,000 GP Gold Bar.
Have you looked it up in the TDb ?
Please post TDb corrections in this thread .
If I write something in teal, it should not be taken seriously

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Re: 2014 Treasure Pulls 9 years 11 months ago #66

our group had ~400 pulls over the 4 days. i didnt break down the UC/R ratio but we pulled the following:

1x 10k bar
2x Boots of the Marauder
79 Monster Trophies
~6k loose gp

I don't think we ever pulled a completion token but we could have because I was mixing all our pulls and completion tokens in the same bag to be sorted later.

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Re: 2014 Treasure Pulls 9 years 11 months ago #67

3x Normal Runs
3x Hardcore Runs
8x Nightmare Runs

5x Flight of the Zephyr Tixs
8x Viper Pit
1x True Grind
________________________________

14x Tix Runs & the one Golden Tix that is included


Rare
12% = 37x Scroll
4% = 11x Enchanter Munition
8% = 23x Gear Item
9% = 24x Weapon
6% = 17x Armor
4% = 10x Gold
_______________________________

43% = 122x Rare
33% = 85x Uncommon
24% = 62x Monster Ingredient Tokens
___________________________________

100% = 269x Treasure Pull

What I had seen is the following as 1%:

The Greater Focus Ring
25,000 GP Eldritch Ole Bar
The Boots of the Marauder
Darkwood Plank
1,000 GP Gold Bar
Edtar's Tinkering Tool

-Eversuede-
Out of the Phoenix's fire, I burned into one arm demon.
Out of the Phoenix's tear, I healed into mortal man.
Out of the Name is Eversuede!!!

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Last edit: by Eversuede.

Re: 2014 Treasure Pulls 9 years 11 months ago #68

24 pulls:

0 Specials
10 Monster Bits
7 Rare
7 Uncommon


3 Wyvern
4 Hawk Kin
3 Sand Beast
0 Medusa

In my first run I asked the volunteer if they had seen any purples drawn, and they said they had only seen one during their shift, and it was by a first timer.

On my seconded run I asked the same thing, and they said that they had not seen one pulled the whole shift and that box was just refilled.

Didn't ask after that. Besides at 1% I had a low shot anyway.

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Re: 2014 Treasure Pulls 9 years 11 months ago #69

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About 160 pulls for my group over the four days, nothing crazy, 1700gp, 38 monster bits, 1 nightmare completion token, looks like an even rare/uncommon split for the rest but I still haven't gone through it all.

Heard someone pulled a 25k bar, saw two 00 packs get cracked by other folks.
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Re: 2014 Treasure Pulls 9 years 11 months ago #70

In all my years playing true dungeon with over 1000 treasure pulls, I've never pulled anything "special" (except last year...even then, my ratio was lower than most others I heard). I guess I'm lucky that way. Still, it's an exciting experience nonetheless.
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