TOPIC: Statistical spread of tokens

*giggles* good one bro.

<br />So, on average, if you order 30 packs, you should expect to NOT receive 15 tokens.  <br />

<br /><br />You bet! I expect to receive at least 300 tokens, not 15!!<br /><br />(Er... you meant there'd be 15 unique Reds I wouldn't get, right?)<br /><br />Thanks for the math, though! Suddenly STATs classes seem to have an application to reality.<br /><br />

My order (also 120 bags) has similar weirdness.<br /><br />V. Rare<br />  9 Mage Armor<br />  8 Bracer of defense<br />  7 Slow Poison<br />  6 Major Rumor (I know 6 isn't weird but I think this is the only token worse then Keen Edge)<br /><br />  0 Keen Edge (Yea!)<br />  0 Amethyst  <br />  0 Potions of Dark Vision (cry) <br /><br />Rare:<br />  12 Mage Hand<br />  11 Dust of Appearance<br />    <br />    2 Owl's Wisdom<br />    2 Bless<br /><br /><br /><br />Josh are you sure about the 6 Acid arrows???  I didn't get any of them and they are not on list as being in print on your spreadsheet.<br /><br />PS I have plenty of 1 GP coins if you really want to trade for them  =D

Hi all,<br /><br />  It is well known that for small numbers like most of us had for reds, show divergent distrubutions. If we could get several people together and have like 500 reds, and that showed an unequal distribution, then that might point to a problem. <br /><br />  The one advantage this unequal distribution has for everyone involved is that it forces us all to do some significant trading, which is always amusing and definitely strengthens the token faithful community.

I don't think there is a problem.   I am 100% sure that the correct number of each token was printed because Lori says it was.  <br /><br />This is just the probability at its finest.   It is the same thing that causes me to go several night without getting AA in poker.  And then the next night get 3 AAs in 10 hands.   <br /><br />I know, what I need to do is buy another 4 gold tickets and then things will even out.  <br /><br /> (Looks over at wife, notices she is not laughing, quickly decides this is not an idea to pursue).

The one thing I'm curious about is the distribution of Ultra Rares.<br /><br />According to the "00" method (getting a bag with a UR token is like rolling "00" [per the token page]), 1 in every 100 bags should have a purple.  That also means that one should have been printed for every 100 Very Rares that is slated to be put into a token bag.<br /><br />Reading the lists of what people received in their orders, however, seems to tell a different story.  (The ratio seems to be much, much lower.) <br /><br />Can anyone shed some light on how many URs were printed this year?

Many people who didn't get purples are speaking up, but not all who got them are.<br />I'm confident that the UR's are going out in the ratio stated.<br />Like someone brought out with 1,300 bags, there are only 13 UR's. And the golden ticket packs are 30 bag packs.  Very few are going to get them. That's why they are Ultra Rare, right?

And some people dont ever recognize an ultra-rare when they get one.  <br /><br />

<br />The one thing I'm curious about is the distribution of Ultra Rares.<br /><br />According to the "00" method (getting a bag with a UR token is like rolling "00" [per the token page]), 1 in every 100 bags should have a purple.  That also means that one should have been printed for every 100 Very Rares that is slated to be put into a token bag.<br /><br />Reading the lists of what people received in their orders, however, seems to tell a different story.  (The ratio seems to be much, much lower.) <br /><br />Can anyone shed some light on how many URs were printed this year?<br />

<br /><br />The people who post are only a small subset of the people who received orders. Remember that there were what... 57 Golden Tickets sold?  That is at least 14 URs and I have only seen like 3 posted, maybe 4?<br /><br />I wouldn't jump to conclusions based on whats posted.<br /><br />As for Georges spread, this is also typical (albeit slightly on the "rarer" side of distributions). 

62 as of april 9th.

And 77 MAX - thank goodness as that means only one full day for the needed totes...which reminds me...<br /><br />Anyone looking to trade with me or chat with me via PM tonight - I will be offline most of the evening as I prep things for the making of Token Totes this SAT.<br /><br />

I finally got to the bottom of the huge post regarding how tokens are sorted and distibuted and it sounds like it actually is 100:1 to get a purple when you purchase a bag.<br /><br />In other words - never mind!