TOPIC: Token Draw Happiness

Acherin wrote: First off I guess I have to crarify I am speaking objectively here not making personal attacks. But isn't the objective here to grow the player base and thus the game. Yes there are token buyers that spend a ridiculous amount of money and thats great for the game. Now take a second year player that has very little to no gear. Now that player goes and pulls an awsome token, is there not a better than average chance that this player catches a bit of the itch to collect more tokens. Maybe even orders them directly from True Adventures.

From my observations, a good portion of new players who draw such tokens simply turn around and sell those tokens on eBay, the forums, or in person at the Con. So oftentimes, those tokens simply end up in the hands of experienced players or major token buyers/collectors, but at a significantly cheaper price.

MasterED wrote: Always after Gen Con we see a flood of new powerful tokens and the market dips the hope is it will come back stronger than before and in most cases it does (except Wert's year - it still isn't recovered from a Greater Gloak of Destinhy and Girdle of Frost Giant Strength). Those high quantities have to fall out of the market.

IIRC, there were few (if any) Greater Cloaks in the Wertz box. It was mainly 2012 Relics along with Heroism items.

Also, there are some people who speculate that the number of Girdles, Rings, and Bracers were not equal. Some people theorize that Wertz (and this year) was used to dump extra Relics. More Girdles were transmuted and fewer Rings and Bracers were transmuted, so more Rings and Bracers were in the Wertz box and fewer Girdles. Similarly, some people believe that this year, there were not equal numbers of Batons, Plate, and Mail in the treasure boxes.

Mike Steele wrote: I actually think the Greater Cloak of Destiny and Girdle of Frost Giant Strength have recovered from the 2013 glut, I'm seeing some increased demand for those. On the other hand, it was the death blow for the +3 Mithral Bracers and Ring of Improved Evasion, those plummeted in value and have never recovered. Which is discouraging for someone that spent a lot of resources to transmute those, especially considering the increased power level and decreased transmute cost of Relics in following years.

I spent a lot of time and effort transmuting +3 Mithral Bracers and totally felt like a chump after Wertz. The experience led me to completely cut back on buying tokens every year (a state which persists to this day).

Incognito wrote:

MasterED wrote: Always after Gen Con we see a flood of new powerful tokens and the market dips the hope is it will come back stronger than before and in most cases it does (except Wert's year - it still isn't recovered from a Greater Gloak of Destinhy and Girdle of Frost Giant Strength). Those high quantities have to fall out of the market.

IIRC, there were few (if any) Greater Cloaks in the Wertz box. It was mainly 2012 Relics along with Heroism items.

Also, there are some people who speculate that the number of Girdles, Rings, and Bracers were not equal. Some people theorize that Wertz (and this year) was used to dump extra Relics. More Girdles were transmuted and fewer Rings and Bracers were transmuted, so more Rings and Bracers were in the Wertz box and fewer Girdles. Similarly, some people believe that this year, there were not equal numbers of Batons, Plate, and Mail in the treasure boxes.

Mike Steele wrote: I actually think the Greater Cloak of Destiny and Girdle of Frost Giant Strength have recovered from the 2013 glut, I'm seeing some increased demand for those. On the other hand, it was the death blow for the +3 Mithral Bracers and Ring of Improved Evasion, those plummeted in value and have never recovered. Which is discouraging for someone that spent a lot of resources to transmute those, especially considering the increased power level and decreased transmute cost of Relics in following years.

I spent a lot of time and effort transmuting +3 Mithral Bracers and totally felt like a chump after Wertz. The experience led me to completely cut back on buying tokens every year (a state which persists to this day).

The Wertz Relics weren't leftover, they were a new printing, the backgrounds were different.

I also transmuted a ton of +3 Mithral Bracers, Rings of Improved Evasion, and Girdles of Frost Giant Strength, and felt burned by it. It was also an impact that after the first year Relics got both cheaper and more powerful, leading to buyers remorse that first year. I actually stopped buying token packs after that year as a result, but I do still buy PYPs. I don't think this year is a repeat of 2013 though, the Relic percentages were a lot higher then.

Incognito wrote:

MasterED wrote: Always after Gen Con we see a flood of new powerful tokens and the market dips the hope is it will come back stronger than before and in most cases it does (except Wert's year - it still isn't recovered from a Greater Gloak of Destinhy and Girdle of Frost Giant Strength). Those high quantities have to fall out of the market.

IIRC, there were few (if any) Greater Cloaks in the Wertz box. It was mainly 2012 Relics along with Heroism items.

Also, there are some people who speculate that the number of Girdles, Rings, and Bracers were not equal. Some people theorize that Wertz (and this year) was used to dump extra Relics. More Girdles were transmuted and fewer Rings and Bracers were transmuted, so more Rings and Bracers were in the Wertz box and fewer Girdles. Similarly, some people believe that this year, there were not equal numbers of Batons, Plate, and Mail in the treasure boxes.

Mike Steele wrote: I actually think the Greater Cloak of Destiny and Girdle of Frost Giant Strength have recovered from the 2013 glut, I'm seeing some increased demand for those. On the other hand, it was the death blow for the +3 Mithral Bracers and Ring of Improved Evasion, those plummeted in value and have never recovered. Which is discouraging for someone that spent a lot of resources to transmute those, especially considering the increased power level and decreased transmute cost of Relics in following years.

I spent a lot of time and effort transmuting +3 Mithral Bracers and totally felt like a chump after Wertz. The experience led me to completely cut back on buying tokens every year (a state which persists to this day).

I'm not sure it makes sense that Relics from this year would be dumped, they have a year of transmutation left. Although I'm not opposed to Jeff putting leftover Relics, URs, etc in the boxes, it seems very efficient.

I don't have hard numbers but there seemed to be a ton of Icecrags and Blessed Plates, not nearly as many Blessed Mails and batons. But perhaps it is just the people who drew the latter were more likely to keep them.

Kirk Bauer wrote: I don't have hard numbers but there seemed to be a ton of Icecrags and Blessed Plates, not nearly as many Blessed Mails and batons. But perhaps it is just the people who drew the latter were more likely to keep them.

I would agree with your observation. I saw what seemed like twice as many Relic Plate as Mail.

My first TD years ago, I pulled a +1 Mithral Long Sword. It was amazing to get something that looked so cool and wasn't a common treasure pull. It really topped off my TD experience that year and I've been going ever since.

I think Jeff knows what he is doing and that the treasure pulls including relics and in some rare cases legendaries, is great. Its a fantastic way to get new players into it, at least from my own personal experience

Kirk Bauer wrote: I don't have hard numbers but there seemed to be a ton of Icecrags and Blessed Plates, not nearly as many Blessed Mails and batons. But perhaps it is just the people who drew the latter were more likely to keep them.

It is going to be interesting to see what the large number of Icecrag Charms does to the market. That token was pretty limited because most people drew from the gear box in 2013 instead of the monster ingredient box. I wouldn't be surprised if there were more in the treasure boxes than were transmuted.

Kirk Bauer wrote: I don't have hard numbers but there seemed to be a ton of Icecrags and Blessed Plates, not nearly as many Blessed Mails and batons. But perhaps it is just the people who drew the latter were more likely to keep them.

Now that I have finished opening my treasure packs I only can say I only got 1 Baton of Focus, 0 Blessed Plate, 0 Blessed Mail, 0 Icecrag Claws over 800+ pulls. I will post the exact details later.

If someone told me this year was treasure heavy I would have to say not according to my pulls.

Ed

MasterED wrote:

Kirk Bauer wrote: I don't have hard numbers but there seemed to be a ton of Icecrags and Blessed Plates, not nearly as many Blessed Mails and batons. But perhaps it is just the people who drew the latter were more likely to keep them.

Now that I have finished opening my treasure packs I only can say I only got 1 Baton of Focus, 0 Blessed Plate, 0 Blessed Mail, 0 Icecrag Claws over 800+ pulls. I will post the exact details later.

If someone told me this year was treasure heavy I would have to say not according to my pulls.

Ed

I am curious as to your specials that weren't in the 1% (UR and above?)

There's always confirmation bias. The first people to brag about their draws are the ones who got the coolest stuff. It's not until later we hear from the less lucky. Odds are this year wasn't much different from last.

That said - maybe it was. Not counting Wertz, we've never drawn anything better than a rare in all our years of playing. This year, in about 100 draws we got 14 trophies, a Blessed Plate, an Aragonite and a +1 Mighty Sling. So it feels like this year was heavy, but that's in comparison to eight or nine lean years, so it feels like we were due.

Brad Mortensen wrote: There's always confirmation bias. The first people to brag about their draws are the ones who got the coolest stuff. It's not until later we hear from the less lucky. Odds are this year wasn't much different from last.

That said - maybe it was. Not counting Wertz, we've never drawn anything better than a rare in all our years of playing. This year, in about 100 draws we got 14 trophies, a Blessed Plate, an Aragonite and a +1 Mighty Sling. So it feels like this year was heavy, but that's in comparison to eight or nine lean years, so it feels like we were due.

Very true. I have never beaten a rare outside of this year and the Wertz year as well.