TOPIC: Please Read This - Jeff Talks About 2024 Recipes and Such

Thanks everyone for the feedback. I apologize for not better explaining the process we used to determine formulas -- and for not explaining this Safehold idea yesterday when all this was posted. I find myself spread too thin with everything going on this week (two VTD adventures!), but I should have taken the time to post. My apologies.

How we determine the Transmute recipe costs:
We took the average price for each Trade Token (for the whole token year as provided by awesome TD Forumite Marc D), and we created a spreadsheet to calculate the relative dollar worth of each proposed Transmute recipe. This allowed us to have a clear picture of how all the Transmute tokens related to each other verses cost. Thus, if we felt one Relic was not as desirable as another Relic, we made the less powerful token cost 20% less (in real dollar terms) than the other.
Also, we used these calculations to set the values of the Omni Orb and Omni Cube by making sure the dollar amount assigned to them was not lower than current market prices for the tokens that they can replace. I realize comparing dollar amounts is not a perfect solution, but I felt it was the best fair method used to help determine recipes.

$8K Super Safehold Condensed Pack Idea:
First – let me say I screwed up. In my rush to get this posted yesterday, I forgot that the weaker version of the Safehold you are making was required to make the new stronger Safehold. Sorry. We have removed the Safehold V and Safehold IV tokens from the list of tokens you would get with this idea. You would still get the 5 Steward tokens for both the Safehold V and Safehold IV, and you would still get the Safehold III token.

How we determined the recipe for the $8K Super Safehold Condensed Pack Idea:
Again, we used our fact-based spreadsheet of average cost over 2023 to determine the relative value of all the Trade tokens in an $8K Super Condensed. We then compared that dollar figure to how much it would cost in relative dollars to transmute all the way to Safehold III. I was hoping it was close to the same amount, and we got lucky with it being very close. I realize that this method to get to Safehold III would not require any Golden Fleece tokens. However, this Safehold Condensed option takes much more of the other Trade tokens to get to Safehold III – so that the dollar amount used is the same for both ways.

The two main reasons I wanted to offer the $8K Super Safehold Condensed option are these:
1) Non-USA collectors have long wanted an even more Condensed version that would skip the Trade tokens since they find transmuting difficult. We did not have any way to do that in previous years until we launched the Safehold program. Additionally, these non-USA folks were heavily burdened with shipping costs inside the standard Safehold program, so some asked if a more efficient method could be made available.
2) Some USA collectors have also long commented that a non-Trade token $8K Super Condensed Pack would work great for them – as they don’t like transmuting. So, for these folks who have no use for Trade tokens, this is a good option for them.

But wait…you said the Safehold is all about waiting for your Safehold to be made? Why are you letting people transmute instantly?
That is a fair point…and one that I carefully considered. But in the end, this new idea does not give anyone early access to any tokens that matter – the Hirelings, Underlings and Followers. Anyone who takes this option still must wait until January to make Underlings, and they must wait until July to make Followers. I guess technically this option gives folks who take the $8K Super Safehold Condensed Pack about a one-week head start since you don’t have to, for instance, transmute a Safehold III (Under Construction) on July 1st before you can then transmute for a Follower. If people really are hung up on that one-week head start, we can hold, for instance, all Follower transmutes until after July 8th.

Thank you all again for your feedback and patience. Both are greatly appreciated. I hope to see you this weekend in VTD.

Few things for you to consider.

1. We're seeing a lot more 8k auctions with plenty of incentives added which is putting downward pressure on the price of trade goods.

2. The number of VTDs in a year is increasing the amount of treasure and by extension the number of tokens being made into trade goods.

Both of these are dropping trade good prices. If you're basing the recipe for trade goods off the current prices of trade goods and not off the average number of runs it would take someone with max treasure enhancers who also buys a 1k / 2k / X number of 10 packs, doesn't that mean the community would be better off not having as many auctions or doing as many runs so we can get some relief on the price of these recipes? And with there being other more desirable tokens being added to 8ks this year the prices are just going to get worse.

Would you rather I play 1 more run in a weekend or take that $74 and go to the secondary market to buy trade goods instead?

Jeff, first, thank you very much for this level of transparency. It is much appreciated and lets us give a feedback which I hope will be a lot more useful to you, rather than giving feedback based on guesswork. I have detailed thoughts on the other areas which I'll try and get to later tonight, but wanted to hit this one first.

Jeff Martin wrote: But wait…you said the Safehold is all about waiting for your Safehold to be made? Why are you letting people transmute instantly?
That is a fair point…and one that I carefully considered. But in the end, this new idea does not give anyone early access to any tokens that matter – the Hirelings, Underlings and Followers. Anyone who takes this option still must wait until January to make Underlings, and they must wait until July to make Followers. I guess technically this option gives folks who take the $8K Super Safehold Condensed Pack about a one-week head start since you don’t have to, for instance, transmute a Safehold III (Under Construction) on July 1st before you can then transmute for a Follower. If people really are hung up on that one-week head start, we can hold, for instance, all Follower transmutes until after July 8th.

So, I think there is some misunderstanding here. I don't think anyone is really bothered by that one-week head start, or thinks that folks who might buy this $8k would get access to stat-boosting tokens before others. I think your judgment on those items is completely on-point.

Here is the issue which bothers me, and I think others, which I don't think has been considered:

Despite quite a lot of negative feedback, you had insisted very strongly during the design process on making us go through a very laborious "construction" process, including making us send in the for an "under construction" version in certain months, and then send that version back in for a constructed version in later months. Even if someone had all of the trade goods lying around to go straight to Safehold III, they would not be able to make one in a single transmute. Instead, it would take six: (1) Safehold V under construction, (2) Safehold V, (3) Safehold IV Under Construction, (4) Safehold IV, (5) Safehold III under construction, (6) Safehold III.

That's six separate transmutes, done in six separate boxes, with six separate shipping costs and trips to the post office. We'd given what I thought was resounding feedback that this was not desirable, but you had insisted it was important for theme.

In reliance on your firmness in that regard, most folks who were planning on participating in the Safehold program have already started transmuting their Safehold V(s). Some of those folks are now in the awkward position of: wait, if I buy this, will I be able to sell my partially built-Safehold V? That's kind of awkward.

Worse, with this announced proposal, which would permit folks to skip having to do this six times, makes those of us who aren't going to put down for an $8k on our own seem like second class citizens. We aren't willing to shell out $8k, so we have to go to the post office 5 more times to redeem the same item. Put colloquially: feels bad man.

I know some folks will say, "well, how is that different from patron or GT?" Patron and GT are opportunities to pay more money to get access to a cool extra event. This is an opportunity to pay money to avoid an inconvenience that TDA artificially created.

Finally, one of the benefits of the program was that it provided a sink for golden fleece, I think most folks agree are a bit too abundant right now. Reducing that sink seems like an odd choice, although I understand the math behind how it came out.

Hi Jeff!

Thanks for the very detailed explanations, I appreciate it! I think your approach is a very reasonable one.

I have one question. You said "Also, we used these calculations to set the values of the Omni Orb and Omni Cube by making sure the dollar amount assigned to them was not lower than current market prices for the tokens that they can replace." I had though the Omni tokens were going to be more expensive than the tokens they were replacing. Is the goal now to make their value about even, or is it to make them more expensive? Although, if you are pricing them at the price point of the most valuable token they can replace, that seems like a good solution.

Thanks!
Mike

Kusig wrote: Few things for you to consider.

1. We're seeing a lot more 8k auctions with plenty of incentives added which is putting downward pressure on the price of trade goods.

2. The number of VTDs in a year is increasing the amount of treasure and by extension the number of tokens being made into trade goods.

Both of these are dropping trade good prices. If you're basing the recipe for trade goods off the current prices of trade goods and not off the average number of runs it would take someone with max treasure enhancers who also buys a 1k / 2k / X number of 10 packs, doesn't that mean the community would be better off not having as many auctions or doing as many runs so we can get some relief on the price of these recipes? And with there being other more desirable tokens being added to 8ks this year the prices are just going to get worse.

Would you rather I play 1 more run in a weekend or take that $74 and go to the secondary market to buy trade goods instead?

Great points! Exactly why prices of trade goods have tanked. Too much supply in the market. Only way to offset this is by increasing demand (expanding the player base and/or cranking up transmute costs for relics, legendary, safeholds, etc.) Expanding the player base is always work in progress, one thing Jeff can do now is crank up the recipe costs. If he doesn't, prices will continue to tank. I see people on the forums arguing against more trade goods in recipes but at the same time they're concerned with how the costs of trade goods have decreased. Can't have it both ways. A Legendary is not a legendary if it doesn't cost much to make.

Daniel White wrote: Jeff, first, thank you very much for this level of transparency. It is much appreciated and lets us give a feedback which I hope will be a lot more useful to you, rather than giving feedback based on guesswork. I have detailed thoughts on the other areas which I'll try and get to later tonight, but wanted to hit this one first.

Jeff Martin wrote: But wait…you said the Safehold is all about waiting for your Safehold to be made? Why are you letting people transmute instantly?
That is a fair point…and one that I carefully considered. But in the end, this new idea does not give anyone early access to any tokens that matter – the Hirelings, Underlings and Followers. Anyone who takes this option still must wait until January to make Underlings, and they must wait until July to make Followers. I guess technically this option gives folks who take the $8K Super Safehold Condensed Pack about a one-week head start since you don’t have to, for instance, transmute a Safehold III (Under Construction) on July 1st before you can then transmute for a Follower. If people really are hung up on that one-week head start, we can hold, for instance, all Follower transmutes until after July 8th.

So, I think there is some misunderstanding here. I don't think anyone is really bothered by that one-week head start, or thinks that folks who might buy this $8k would get access to stat-boosting tokens before others. I think your judgment on those items is completely on-point.

Here is the issue which bothers me, and I think others, which I don't think has been considered:

Despite quite a lot of negative feedback, you had insisted very strongly during the design process on making us go through a very laborious "construction" process, including making us send in the for an "under construction" version in certain months, and then send that version back in for a constructed version in later months. Even if someone had all of the trade goods lying around to go straight to Safehold III, they would not be able to make one in a single transmute. Instead, it would take six: (1) Safehold V under construction, (2) Safehold V, (3) Safehold IV Under Construction, (4) Safehold IV, (5) Safehold III under construction, (6) Safehold III.

That's six separate transmutes, done in six separate boxes, with six separate shipping costs and trips to the post office. We'd given what I thought was resounding feedback that this was not desirable, but you had insisted it was important for theme.

In reliance on your firmness in that regard, most folks who were planning on participating in the Safehold program have already started transmuting their Safehold V(s). Some of those folks are now in the awkward position of: wait, if I buy this, will I be able to sell my partially built-Safehold V? That's kind of awkward.

Worse, with this announced proposal, which would permit folks to skip having to do this six times, makes those of us who aren't going to put down for an $8k on our own seem like second class citizens. We aren't willing to shell out $8k, so we have to go to the post office 5 more times to redeem the same item. Put colloquially: feels bad man.

I know some folks will say, "well, how is that different from patron or GT?" Patron and GT are opportunities to pay more money to get access to a cool extra event. This is an opportunity to pay money to avoid an inconvenience that TDA artificially created.

Finally, one of the benefits of the program was that it provided a sink for golden fleece, I think most folks agree are a bit too abundant right now. Reducing that sink seems like an odd choice, although I understand the math behind how it came out.

Very well said, plus one to all this.

Rob F wrote:

Kusig wrote: Few things for you to consider.

1. We're seeing a lot more 8k auctions with plenty of incentives added which is putting downward pressure on the price of trade goods.

2. The number of VTDs in a year is increasing the amount of treasure and by extension the number of tokens being made into trade goods.

Both of these are dropping trade good prices. If you're basing the recipe for trade goods off the current prices of trade goods and not off the average number of runs it would take someone with max treasure enhancers who also buys a 1k / 2k / X number of 10 packs, doesn't that mean the community would be better off not having as many auctions or doing as many runs so we can get some relief on the price of these recipes? And with there being other more desirable tokens being added to 8ks this year the prices are just going to get worse.

Would you rather I play 1 more run in a weekend or take that $74 and go to the secondary market to buy trade goods instead?

Great points! Exactly why prices of trade goods have tanked. Too much supply in the market. Only way to offset this is by increasing demand (expanding the player base and/or cranking up transmute costs for relics, legendary, safeholds, etc.) Expanding the player base is always work in progress, one thing Jeff can do now is crank up the recipe costs. If he doesn't, prices will continue to tank. I see people on the forums arguing against more trade goods in recipes but at the same time they're concerned with how the costs of trade goods have decreased. Can't have it both ways. A Legendary is not a legendary if it doesn't cost much to make.

I have zero (yes zero) concern about the cost of trade goods. Auctions create a cap on prices, so no matter what the transmute cost is, the auctions will keep the TG max cost in check. As for the floor, i bought plank for 75 cents each in 2018. The prices are actually HIGHER than they used to be for some TG, so there is really no concern there - we aren’t talking about 10 cent plank and 25 cent steel.

Rob F wrote:

Kusig wrote: Few things for you to consider.

1. We're seeing a lot more 8k auctions with plenty of incentives added which is putting downward pressure on the price of trade goods.

2. The number of VTDs in a year is increasing the amount of treasure and by extension the number of tokens being made into trade goods.

Both of these are dropping trade good prices. If you're basing the recipe for trade goods off the current prices of trade goods and not off the average number of runs it would take someone with max treasure enhancers who also buys a 1k / 2k / X number of 10 packs, doesn't that mean the community would be better off not having as many auctions or doing as many runs so we can get some relief on the price of these recipes? And with there being other more desirable tokens being added to 8ks this year the prices are just going to get worse.

Would you rather I play 1 more run in a weekend or take that $74 and go to the secondary market to buy trade goods instead?

Great points! Exactly why prices of trade goods have tanked. Too much supply in the market. Only way to offset this is by increasing demand (expanding the player base and/or cranking up transmute costs for relics, legendary, safeholds, etc.) Expanding the player base is always work in progress, one thing Jeff can do now is crank up the recipe costs. If he doesn't, prices will continue to tank. I see people on the forums arguing against more trade goods in recipes but at the same time they're concerned with how the costs of trade goods have decreased. Can't have it both ways. A Legendary is not a legendary if it doesn't cost much to make.

Another way would be to limit the supply. Maybe we have a few less VTDs in a year now that we have in person events. The more you increase the price of recipes the less people engage and the more of those trade goods hit the market. People are always quick to say you don't need the best gear to play, I think its about to reach the point less people transmute and more just sell off the excess. I know I'm dialing way back the number of runs I do because of it. My gear will last me a long time no reason to keep pushing for micro benefits.

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Kusig wrote: Few things for you to consider.

1. We're seeing a lot more 8k auctions with plenty of incentives added which is putting downward pressure on the price of trade goods.

2. The number of VTDs in a year is increasing the amount of treasure and by extension the number of tokens being made into trade goods.

Both of these are dropping trade good prices. If you're basing the recipe for trade goods off the current prices of trade goods and not off the average number of runs it would take someone with max treasure enhancers who also buys a 1k / 2k / X number of 10 packs, doesn't that mean the community would be better off not having as many auctions or doing as many runs so we can get some relief on the price of these recipes? And with there being other more desirable tokens being added to 8ks this year the prices are just going to get worse.

Would you rather I play 1 more run in a weekend or take that $74 and go to the secondary market to buy trade goods instead?

Great points! Exactly why prices of trade goods have tanked. Too much supply in the market. Only way to offset this is by increasing demand (expanding the player base and/or cranking up transmute costs for relics, legendary, safeholds, etc.) Expanding the player base is always work in progress, one thing Jeff can do now is crank up the recipe costs. If he doesn't, prices will continue to tank. I see people on the forums arguing against more trade goods in recipes but at the same time they're concerned with how the costs of trade goods have decreased. Can't have it both ways. A Legendary is not a legendary if it doesn't cost much to make.

I have zero (yes zero) concern about the cost of trade goods. Auctions create a cap on prices, so no matter what the transmute cost is, the auctions will keep the TG max cost in check. As for the floor, i bought plank for 75 cents each in 2018. The prices are actually HIGHER than they used to be for some TG, so there is really no concern there - we aren’t talking about 10 cent plank and 25 cent steel.

I was around in 2018 and I don't recall any auctions with Plank at .75 cents. Maybe, but I don't recall it. If Jeff keeps transmute recipe costs where there at, continues with the same amount of VTD's next year, and doesn't stop juicing the treasure boxes Token prices including TG's are going to continue to dump and TD will have to continue to augment auctions to get them to fund. I bought UR's this year for $25, Relics for $100 and no one is selling Legendaries for more than $750 (except CoA). In fact, some are going for less than that. I predicted a while back Legendaries would be at $500. Prices have never been this low as long as I've been playing. Not good for the game IMO.

Rob F wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Kusig wrote: Few things for you to consider.

1. We're seeing a lot more 8k auctions with plenty of incentives added which is putting downward pressure on the price of trade goods.

2. The number of VTDs in a year is increasing the amount of treasure and by extension the number of tokens being made into trade goods.

Both of these are dropping trade good prices. If you're basing the recipe for trade goods off the current prices of trade goods and not off the average number of runs it would take someone with max treasure enhancers who also buys a 1k / 2k / X number of 10 packs, doesn't that mean the community would be better off not having as many auctions or doing as many runs so we can get some relief on the price of these recipes? And with there being other more desirable tokens being added to 8ks this year the prices are just going to get worse.

Would you rather I play 1 more run in a weekend or take that $74 and go to the secondary market to buy trade goods instead?

Great points! Exactly why prices of trade goods have tanked. Too much supply in the market. Only way to offset this is by increasing demand (expanding the player base and/or cranking up transmute costs for relics, legendary, safeholds, etc.) Expanding the player base is always work in progress, one thing Jeff can do now is crank up the recipe costs. If he doesn't, prices will continue to tank. I see people on the forums arguing against more trade goods in recipes but at the same time they're concerned with how the costs of trade goods have decreased. Can't have it both ways. A Legendary is not a legendary if it doesn't cost much to make.

I have zero (yes zero) concern about the cost of trade goods. Auctions create a cap on prices, so no matter what the transmute cost is, the auctions will keep the TG max cost in check. As for the floor, i bought plank for 75 cents each in 2018. The prices are actually HIGHER than they used to be for some TG, so there is really no concern there - we aren’t talking about 10 cent plank and 25 cent steel.

I was around in 2018 and I don't recall any auctions with Plank at .75 cents. Maybe, but I don't recall it. If Jeff keeps transmute recipe costs where there at, continues with the same amount of VTD's next year, and doesn't stop juicing the treasure boxes Token prices including TG's are going to continue to dump and TD will have to continue to augment auctions to get them to fund. I bought UR's this year for $25, Relics for $100 and no one is selling Legendaries for more than $750 (except CoA). In fact, some are going for less than that. I predicted a while back Legendaries would be at $500. Prices have never been this low as long as I've been playing. Not good for the game IMO.

A couple 2018 samples with plank at $1. I may have to go to 2019 to find the 75 cent auctions.
truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=584&id=248428

truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=584&id=248423

You’ll notice that plank, silk, steel, hide, munitions, etc are all higher priced now than they used to be.

All I see here is a big nothing Burger.

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Kusig wrote: Few things for you to consider.

1. We're seeing a lot more 8k auctions with plenty of incentives added which is putting downward pressure on the price of trade goods.

2. The number of VTDs in a year is increasing the amount of treasure and by extension the number of tokens being made into trade goods.

Both of these are dropping trade good prices. If you're basing the recipe for trade goods off the current prices of trade goods and not off the average number of runs it would take someone with max treasure enhancers who also buys a 1k / 2k / X number of 10 packs, doesn't that mean the community would be better off not having as many auctions or doing as many runs so we can get some relief on the price of these recipes? And with there being other more desirable tokens being added to 8ks this year the prices are just going to get worse.

Would you rather I play 1 more run in a weekend or take that $74 and go to the secondary market to buy trade goods instead?

Great points! Exactly why prices of trade goods have tanked. Too much supply in the market. Only way to offset this is by increasing demand (expanding the player base and/or cranking up transmute costs for relics, legendary, safeholds, etc.) Expanding the player base is always work in progress, one thing Jeff can do now is crank up the recipe costs. If he doesn't, prices will continue to tank. I see people on the forums arguing against more trade goods in recipes but at the same time they're concerned with how the costs of trade goods have decreased. Can't have it both ways. A Legendary is not a legendary if it doesn't cost much to make.

I have zero (yes zero) concern about the cost of trade goods. Auctions create a cap on prices, so no matter what the transmute cost is, the auctions will keep the TG max cost in check. As for the floor, i bought plank for 75 cents each in 2018. The prices are actually HIGHER than they used to be for some TG, so there is really no concern there - we aren’t talking about 10 cent plank and 25 cent steel.

I was around in 2018 and I don't recall any auctions with Plank at .75 cents. Maybe, but I don't recall it. If Jeff keeps transmute recipe costs where there at, continues with the same amount of VTD's next year, and doesn't stop juicing the treasure boxes Token prices including TG's are going to continue to dump and TD will have to continue to augment auctions to get them to fund. I bought UR's this year for $25, Relics for $100 and no one is selling Legendaries for more than $750 (except CoA). In fact, some are going for less than that. I predicted a while back Legendaries would be at $500. Prices have never been this low as long as I've been playing. Not good for the game IMO.

A couple 2018 samples with plank at $1. I may have to go to 2019 to find the 75 cent auctions.
truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=584&id=248428

truedungeon.com/forum?view=topic&catid=584&id=248423

You’ll notice that plank, silk, steel, hide, munitions, etc are all higher priced now than they used to be.

All I see here is a big nothing Burger.

Look at the prices of the PYP and the dragon orb, the auction wouldn't have funded if those prices would have been less. And no one is paying $120 for a PYP right now. So people got cheap trade goods because other prices were higher.

Hopefully your nothing burger is still tasty when your orange tokens are worth sub $500 because that day is coming if something doesn't change.

Kusig wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Kusig wrote: Few things for you to consider.

1. We're seeing a lot more 8k auctions with plenty of incentives added which is putting downward pressure on the price of trade goods.

2. The number of VTDs in a year is increasing the amount of treasure and by extension the number of tokens being made into trade goods.

Both of these are dropping trade good prices. If you're basing the recipe for trade goods off the current prices of trade goods and not off the average number of runs it would take someone with max treasure enhancers who also buys a 1k / 2k / X number of 10 packs, doesn't that mean the community would be better off not having as many auctions or doing as many runs so we can get some relief on the price of these recipes? And with there being other more desirable tokens being added to 8ks this year the prices are just going to get worse.

Would you rather I play 1 more run in a weekend or take that $74 and go to the secondary market to buy trade goods instead?

Great points! Exactly why prices of trade goods have tanked. Too much supply in the market. Only way to offset this is by increasing demand (expanding the player base and/or cranking up transmute costs for relics, legendary, safeholds, etc.) Expanding the player base is always work in progress, one thing Jeff can do now is crank up the recipe costs. If he doesn't, prices will continue to tank. I see people on the forums arguing against more trade goods in recipes but at the same time they're concerned with how the costs of trade goods have decreased. Can't have it both ways. A Legendary is not a legendary if it doesn't cost much to make.

Another way would be to limit the supply. Maybe we have a few less VTDs in a year now that we have in person events. The more you increase the price of recipes the less people engage and the more of those trade goods hit the market. People are always quick to say you don't need the best gear to play, I think its about to reach the point less people transmute and more just sell off the excess. I know I'm dialing way back the number of runs I do because of it. My gear will last me a long time no reason to keep pushing for micro benefits.

What does that mean the more you increase prices of recipes the less people engage? I don't understand that statement. Jeff could double the current 2024 recipe cost and nothing would change IMO. I think people play true dungeon because they have fun doing so, not because of a recipe cost. Let's keep in mind that everyone wants a special token, but once everyone has one it's not special anymore. Getting to safehold 3 with one 8K just makes the whole safehold program lose a bit of its luster, at least for me.