TOPIC: Token Prices plummet?

I have recently tried selling a bunch of Ultra Rares, Relic and Eldritch tokens on ebay. Unfortunately they are not getting any interest. I can't even get bites at 35 and 40 bucks. Relics aren't even selling at 200. I've seen some sellers getting killed on their Legendaries for like 300 and 400. What's going on besides the economy? Ever since Covid, the market for tokens have bottomed out....

Obviously I've been significantly impacted and I have a few ideas. I think it is a mix of all of the following (in no particular order):

1) player base isn't growing much since COVID messed up some of the expansion plans.
2) lots of huge collections have been sold over the past two years
3) power creep ruining value of old tokens
4) easy ability to consign tokens with several online resellers
5) bonuses for large sellers (eg Paths) creating surplus of lesser tokens

I'd also add the frequency of VTD, increasing the amount of loot that goes out to the higher level players who might have bought or traded for a relic or legendary can now have a better chance to draw one.

I think there are already several threads that have referenced this question (or maybe I'm thinking of discussions in Discord) and I don't think there are any easy answers. Although basically, it all comes down to supply versus demand.

If prices are dropping than the supply of tokens relative to demand has increased. There are probably dozens upon dozens of variables going into this. The overall economy may be one factor, but I'm not even sure if it's a major factor. Maybe. Below are reasons that come to mind. They are certainly not all inclusive.

Supply.
- Since Ring Con, the number of patrons (and 8K orders) has nearly doubled. This pumps a lot more URs and trade goods into the market.
- As a result of Covid, we now have VTD events 8 or 9 times a year. More treasure equals more of everything in the market.
- Some long term collectors have left the game and are dropping large collections into the market. Others are deciding to scale back to hardcore level of play and dropping their high priced items into the market.
- In recent years we've added a couple new treasure enhancers to builds and as a result players are getting more treasure, which equals more of everything.

Now look at the Demand side of the equation.
- You can't say overall demand for tokens is down. Compared to 5 years ago, 8K orders are up as measured by the number of patrons. Its possible small orders are down. I really can't say. Also, add in the fact that the price of 10-packs and 8K orders hasn't gone up since they were introduced, and it appears there's still interest in tokens. Based on that, it appears that it is just interest in UR+ items that have decreased.
- But even with UR+ items, prices can widely vary. It seems like Legendary, relic and UR items sell for close to historical prices for the first few months of the year. At that point, most of the people that want it have either pulled or transmuted for one. Demand falls and so do prices. You may have a few exceptions like the Mark of Enlightenment fragments.
- The loss of some long term players/collectors has lowered demand.
- Fewer convention dungeons result in less opportunity to attract new players/collectors. I know Jeff hope this will get back to normal in 2025. And it appears he's trying very hard to turn this around with the sealed pack events. Although, sealed pack events don't promote a need for higher level tokens. It's a tough balancing act. VTD is great for veteran players, but it currently is not a vehicle for attracting new players.
- Higher ticket prices discourage new players. However, even though some Gen Con tickets are still available, it's still 98% sold out. Can't say there still isn't interest.
- Power creep. Older tokens eventually get obsoleted in the opinion of people who want their characters to have "best in slot" (not even sure that's a real thing, but it's mentioned a lot). As result, you don't have high demand for tokens not considered such. In this case, you need newer players willing to accept less than optimal tokens. But they probably won't pay the prices we've been used to.

I could probably go on and on. And I won't even cover all the proposed solutions I've read. Some are interesting. Some sound good, but I also think some could cause as much harm as they do good. More than likely, there's no one answer. In the meantime, prices will adjust to meet demand. You can either hold onto your tokens and hope demand increases in the future. Or, you just keep dropping prices until you find someone who's willing to buy it.

A lot of good points were mentioned in this thread but I'll add another one.

Since the completion tokens were changed, there's no longer any incentive to play Nightmare difficulty. You can play on Hardcore and get all of the same rewards (comp token, treasure, XP). The only exception is the Nightmare Survivor pin which is worth little more than bragging rights.

Hardcore is easy with all-rare builds. So there's no reason to invest beyond that.

All the above makes sense.

And the impending True Dungeon 2nd Edition (rework classes stats etc..)

Kirk Bauer wrote: 3) power creep ruining value of old tokens

This, but also preemptively ruining the value of new tokens by setting and reinforcing the expectation that said power creep will not only continue but accelerate.

There has never been any reason to buy high-level tokens except inasmuch as it adds more fun to the game... so the value proposition of spending $X now for a UR (or relic, or whatever) that I think will help me have more fun for 5+ years of play is very different from spending $X when I expect there's a 50/50 chance that within a year or two it will be utterly outclassed and I'll regret having bought it.

Compare e.g. tokendb.com/token/axe-of-the-dwarvish-kings/ vs tokendb.com/token/2-savage-sword/ only 3 years apart. The sword is so much better in every way that the axe no longer has any appeal unless you specifically need it to craft Viv's... so hopefully anybody who bought the axe to use it got a LOT of enjoyment out of it during that time! If not, I'm sure they are determined not to make the same mistake again going forward.

Before VTD, I only played TD 1-3 times a year, so spending a ton on tokens didn’t make sense. I have a party member who got a little more into it in 2016-18, which made it easier for me to spend for some higher end stuff. My group started playing Nightmare routinely, and it was nice to have things like CoAS so we could keep up with other NM players. I think it was 2019 when a friend got a Charm of Avarice. Then VTD started, we were playing ~8 times year, one thing led to another, and now we have full treasure.

TD is one of my larger hobbies now, but due to full TEs and multiple VTDs, there isn’t much left that I “need.” Four or five years ago, I was buying more tokens. But now I mostly have what I want from the existing sets, especially with the discounts available from recent going out of business sales. (Would I like a Rod of Seven Parts and a Supreme Ring? Sure. But I’m not going to pay $2k each, when that could get me trade goods for Safeholds, pay for half an $8k order, etc.) All I’m chasing now is the new stuff.

ETA: I complete agree that the game would benefit from an influx of new players. We need people who are where I was 10 and 5 years ago. I hope Golden Obelisk serves in that role. Get people in the door and get them excited about the possibilities. I’m glad we’re going back to Origins, trying San Japan for the first time, and I hope that MomoCon or PAX West come back. TD was expanding the player base before the pandemic hit. It’s taking a while to rebuild, not surprisingly.

Compared to 5-10 years ago would you recommend to new players to buy/invest in builds?

There is also a thread in the Facebook Fans of Gen Con page with folks grumbling about the cost of playing a run. Some complain about the folks with all the power tokens running an adventure.

Wade Schwendemann (Dr. Uid) wrote: I'd also add the frequency of VTD, increasing the amount of loot that goes out to the higher level players who might have bought or traded for a relic or legendary can now have a better chance to draw one.

I would put that one pretty high on the list. As I mentioned before, I think TD needs to make a course correction and remove URs/Relics/Legendaries from the treasure boxes and replace them with an equal value of treasure box exclusive tokens.

David Autzen wrote: There is also a thread in the Facebook Fans of Gen Con page with folks grumbling about the cost of playing a run. Some complain about the folks with all the power tokens running an adventure.

I think there might have been a couple of different threads. I read them. Some of it is painful to read. Here's my personal feelings on the subjects. And that's all they are, just my feelings.

As for cost. Yeah, TD is not cheap. Every person has to make their own assessment. Is this the best use of my money? Will I have more fun or get more personal value spending my money elsewhere? For me, the answers are yes to best use and no to getting more value elsewhere. Sure, that could change, but right now I'm having too much fun.

What I read in facebook is either "I'd like to play it, but I don't have that kind of money" or "I've tried it and it's not worth it." Those are valid statements. I don't begrudge anyone their personal opinions. I just take some exception when they try to infer that their opinions should apply to a broader audience. That's all it is, their opinion. Everyone should form their own.

As for power players taking over and running or ruining an adventure. That is sad. It should not happen, but I'm aware it does. Some of my best and worst runs in the past were PUG runs, but I do fewer and fewer of them to try and avoid situations. If I do join a random group, I will always adjust my build to match the group. I will let them take the lead in puzzles and combats. In coaching, I try to limit any borrowing of tokens to avoid overwhelming new players. I let them pick classes first.

Honestly, in those runs, my #1 priority is to try and help people have fun. I want more people to play TD. Selfishly, more players means it's more likely for the game to still be around in the future. And that benefits me.