TOPIC: Extremely Lumpy Gen Con 2024 Pre-wrapped Treasure?

I got 100 pulls of treasure at Gen Con in the form of 5 pre-wrapped 20-pull packs.

In total, across 100 pulls I got 4 monster bits. Of those, 2 were in the last pack, so through 80 pulls I was at 2 monster bits.

I also got 2 URs, a Silver Ship Passage Outpost Nil and a Ring of the 3rd Circle from two 20 piece packs.

So I got way fewer monster bits than expected, and way more UR/Premium/Outposts than expected for 100 pulls.

When I say " way more" I mean "an amount that serves as strong evidence that the treasure mix isn't evenly random, but instead has pockets where clusters of certain types of tokens appear."

Is 100 really "strong evidence?"
I'd say it generates a good question

Wade Schwendemann (Dr. Uid) wrote: Is 100 really "strong evidence?"
I'd say it generates a good question

Yes. Statistically you often don't need an enormous number of trials to make high confidence claims about some elements of a distribution.

If someone tells you a d10 is fairly weighted, and you roll it 100 times, and get 4 or fewer 10s, you can be fairly confident the die is not in fact fairly weighted - as the odds of this happening due to chance alone are:

Getting exactly zero 10s: about 1/37,648
Getting exactly one 10: about 1/3,388
Getting exactly two 10s: about 1/616
Getting exactly three 10s: about 1/170
Getting exactly four 10s: about 1/63

Odds of getting four or fewer 10s in 100 rolls: about 2.4%

Those are low enough odds in standard scientific practice to reject the hypothesis "the die is fairly weighted."

Similarly:
* Pulling 2 or fewer monster bits out of 80 pulls (as I did) if the monster bits make up 8.3% of the mix (as they appear to) would happen purely due to chance around 3.3% of the time.
* Pulling 4 or more UR+/Silver Ship Passage items out of 40 pulls (as I did), if those tokens make up ~2% of the mix (as they appear to) would happen purely due to chance around 0.8% of the time.

Of course, more data could override this, and with the number of people at Gen Con many people would have a result that extreme or more in their pulls, which is why I asked if other people had noticed lumpiness.

My 20 packs were awful - out of 8 20-packs I pulled ONE Minotaur Hide, 7 idols and 18 Monster Bits.

I pulled better out of the boxes - out of 43 draws I pulled Ring of 3rd Circle, Outpost Nil, and Bead of Horus to go with 2 idols and 4 Monster bits.

First time I ever wished I could do all 25 of my pulls from the boxes instead 😤

Cary Kelly wrote: My 20 packs were awful - out of 8 20-packs I pulled ONE Minotaur Hide, 7 idols and 18 Monster Bits.

I pulled better out of the boxes - out of 43 draws I pulled Ring of 3rd Circle, Outpost Nil, and Bead of Horus to go with 2 idols and 4 Monster bits.

First time I ever wished I could do all 25 of my pulls from the boxes instead 😤

I also got a minotaur hide - I think TD may have started putting more MH and DS into the treasure to keep it balanced with all the other trade goods that can be made from the treasure mix.

18 MBs in 160 pulls is above average for MBs, but obviously you'd hope for a UR or 2 to go with them!

My kid pulled 240 Tokens from the box up front on Saturday night. Yep, all 240 from the box. He's 11, pulling is fun. Was funny watching him have to switch arms because his shoulder started getting tired. I'd have to look but from what I remember:

- 1 Ring of the 3rd
- 4 UR's
- a handful of Idols
- Very few bits, maybe 5 or 6.
- a few light blues

We did another 60 or so pulls from the boxes after the runs and maybe two Bits. Thought it was odd the Bits were low but whatever. The kids have fun pulling and I enjoy watching their eyes light up when they get something decent