TOPIC: Is it time to take URs out of Treasure Boxes?

Ultra-Rare token prices, and token prices in general, have really dropped recently, and the trend still seems downward.

It seems that UR supply is a lot higher than demand, because of both high token sales and increased Treasure Box pulls.

Treasure Box pulls are increasing because of additional in-person and virtual runs and because people can pull on average one more pull per run each year.

If URs were replaced in Treasure Boxes by Dungeon only tokens like the current Idols, I think that would help reduce the oversupply of Ultra Rares, and maybe help spur token sales because that would become the only way to get them (outside of the secondary market)

Lequinian wrote: Replacing URs with Idols would reduce the pull EV. And presumably the Idol prices would sink some too.

I leave it to the data-peeps to run numbers, but I thought the prices were down based on the number of auctions which in turn were driven by TGs, Rings, Fragments, and Marks. But I've not been paying close attention since December.

I was thinking of adding something new to the boxes to replace the URs, not just having more Idol tokens. In the early days it wasn't that much of an impact, someone might have had to do 20 runs to get a UR. Now it's more like every 4-5 runs gets a UR. And for people that go in with 10 sets of max TE tokens loan out for a share of treasure, they might be getting one every run or two.

How would this affect the price of future TE?

AAckeret wrote: How would this affect the price of future TE?

I expect everyone will still want to have the maximum amount of treasure pulls. I doubt it would have a negative impact. It might actually help boost TE token values by reducing supply of them. Gold and Platinum Nuggets haven't increased in value like previous TE tokens usually did.

Tickets are expensive enough as it is. Let's please not make treasure value worse.

If TD were to take away the chance to pull URs in treasure, I suspect there would be a lot of folks getting off that particular hamster wheel.

Personally I think the mix is pretty good this year. Monster Trophy rates are back up to "normal", the new Idols seem to drop at a decent rate, but rare enough to be "collectible", and there's the chance to pull something cool.

I also agree that price deflation is likely much more to do with the increased number of auctions compared to many years ago, and the increased value of the extras given with large orders.

Dergidan wrote: Tickets are expensive enough as it is. Let's please not make treasure value worse.

If TD were to take away the chance to pull URs in treasure, I suspect there would be a lot of folks getting off that particular hamster wheel.

Personally I think the mix is pretty good this year. Monster Trophy rates are back up to "normal", the new Idols seem to drop at a decent rate, but rare enough to be "collectible", and there's the chance to pull something cool.

I also agree that price deflation is likely much more to do with the increased number of auctions compared to many years ago, and the increased value of the extras given with large orders.

Just to clarify, I am not recommending making treasure box treasure worse. I'm recommending replacing URs with something else of equal value.

UR's are not Ultra Rare, they are Ultra Regular. Relics? Relics are Regular. And Legendaries are Limited (at best). No one cares about UR's anymore. It's sad. I don't even care about pulling a Relic. I can pick up Relics for a hundred bucks. I don't get why TD keeps loading the boxes when aftermarket prices are in the toilet. Cut the mix of UR/R/L that are in the boxes. Also get rid of the Marks and Relic completion transmutes. You want a Mark, buy a 2K. You want a Relic completion transmute play TD.

According to docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k9QxmpnSR57RtdrhXnL2hiNd43Rh1N7MrhO2B8olsZ4/htmlview ultra rares make up 0.78% of treasure.

A virtual TD has about 100 runs, with 1,000 tickets total.

Assuming the average treasure per ticket is 20 pulls, one VTD weekend distributed around 20,000 treasure, which will include around 156 total URs.

Since there are 20 URs in a set, that is about 8 of each UR.

Its not clear if each VTD kicking out 8 of each UR into circulation is the primary driver for the decline in UR prices in general.

I suspect other things are causing it.

I’d guess both of the following are greater contributors.

1. TD has successfully increased the value of trade goods with appealing recipes, and increasing the value of large purchase incentives. When the cost of non-ur things in a 8k order goes up, the costs of URs has to go down.

2. Power creep - especially at rare pressuring URs. Rare tokens like Ioun Stone Jasper Elipsoid and Belt of then Brave that offer previously UR effects for a few bucks has to weigh heavily in certain URs.

3. Slot saturation with Relic+ items. Of the 20 URs in 2024, around 11 of them are in slots where they are competing with Relic, Legendary, and/or Eldritch tokens.

Of course - that could all be wrong as to what the real drivers are too.

I'd personally sell off my treasure tokens and just play at a much lower level if this happened. I'm still between hardcore and nightmare URs are still very exciting for my group and I.

I can definitely see a diminishing return if I spent 30 years acquiring a collection, as my average rarity would drift to relic+ and those would simply outclass URs.

I can see an argument of taking rings and marks out of the treasure pool but also if that occurred that would likely result in even lower UR prices.

I don't see the low price of URs a problem, I see this as a market shift as it looks like TD's strategy is to offer a wider selection of items aimed at multiple collector groups. The simple introduction of marks was going to reduce the price of URs by spreading the cost of the 8k over more tokens. I personally like this approach I think it makes the game open to more people.

Matthew Hayward wrote: According to docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k9QxmpnSR57RtdrhXnL2hiNd43Rh1N7MrhO2B8olsZ4/htmlview ultra rares make up 0.78% of treasure.

A virtual TD has about 100 runs, with 1,000 tickets total.

Assuming the average treasure per ticket is 20 pulls, one VTD weekend distributed around 20,000 treasure, which will include around 156 total URs.

Since there are 20 URs in a set, that is about 8 of each UR.

Its not clear if each VTD kicking out 8 of each UR into circulation is the primary driver for the decline in UR prices in general.

I suspect other things are causing it.

I’d guess both of the following are greater contributors.

1. TD has successfully increased the value of trade goods with appealing recipes, and increasing the value of large purchase incentives. When the cost of non-ur things in a 8k order goes up, the costs of URs has to go down.

2. Power creep - especially at rare pressuring URs. Rare tokens like Ioun Stone Jasper Elipsoid and Belt of then Brave that offer previously UR effects for a few bucks has to weigh heavily in certain URs.

3. Slot saturation with Relic+ items. Of the 20 URs in 2024, around 11 of them are in slots where they are competing with Relic, Legendary, and/or Eldritch tokens.

Of course - that could all be wrong as to what the real drivers are too.

I agree with Mike that 8K's have increased the UR's and also more pulls from VTD. As for the pull sheet, not everyone logs their pulls. I've been playing TD since about 2010 and I can tell you what I get out of 25 pulls now is WAY better than what I used to get out of 25 pulls. Maybe I'm lucky. Maybe TD doesn't care that you can get most Ultra Regulars on the aftermarket for a lot less than what you used to.

I totally understand with VTD that 95%+ of the players are veterans who already have a lot of URs or UR+ tokens. Getting an UR just isn't as exciting as it used to be, but it still feels much better than a rare, uncommon or even another monster trophy or Idol. I'm not sure what else they could put in the mix to make it feel special.

However, I would be more concerned with in-person cons, especially Gen Con where a much higher percentage of players only play once a year or play at normal difficulty where an UR might seem like something very special to them. So, do they have two treasure mixes? One for VTD and one for in-person? That just seems like more work on TDs part and then they have to keep track not to use the wrong mix.

I do think the planned Mythic Core will help with this problem. Unfortunately, it can't come soon enough.

Matthew Hayward wrote: According to docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k9QxmpnSR57RtdrhXnL2hiNd43Rh1N7MrhO2B8olsZ4/htmlview ultra rares make up 0.78% of treasure.

A virtual TD has about 100 runs, with 1,000 tickets total.

Assuming the average treasure per ticket is 20 pulls, one VTD weekend distributed around 20,000 treasure, which will include around 156 total URs.

Since there are 20 URs in a set, that is about 8 of each UR.

Its not clear if each VTD kicking out 8 of each UR into circulation is the primary driver for the decline in UR prices in general.

I suspect other things are causing it.

I’d guess both of the following are greater contributors.

1. TD has successfully increased the value of trade goods with appealing recipes, and increasing the value of large purchase incentives. When the cost of non-ur things in a 8k order goes up, the costs of URs has to go down.

2. Power creep - especially at rare pressuring URs. Rare tokens like Ioun Stone Jasper Elipsoid and Belt of then Brave that offer previously UR effects for a few bucks has to weigh heavily in certain URs.

3. Slot saturation with Relic+ items. Of the 20 URs in 2024, around 11 of them are in slots where they are competing with Relic, Legendary, and/or Eldritch tokens.

Of course - that could all be wrong as to what the real drivers are too.

Looking at your numbers another way, each VTD is equal to roughly four $8K packages worth of URs (including random URs). There are nine VTDs, so that is roughly equivalent to 36 $8K packages worth of URs. There are also four in-person TD events. I'm not sure how much they add, but if they average the same as a VTD weekend that would be another 16 $8K packages for a total of 52 $8K packages, or 2028 Ultra-Rares. I think removing around 2000 Ultra-Rares from the total that will be in circulation would have an impact on total supply and price/demand.