TOPIC: Final 2023 treasure stats - year in review

Thank you everyone for all your work entering your treasure draws over the past year! It was a lot of fun to see the data coming in every month

One of the things I wanted to do with the spreadsheet was add in some visualizations and summaries. That is, make it so we could see how the mix changed event by event, if at all. I've taken a bit of time to compile some of the results here!

Overall Mix
The first thing I wanted to look at was the overall all mix. Roughly, I define this as the broadest categories of tokens by rarity - Rare, Uncommon, Monster Trophy and "Other".

For 2023, I also created a special category just for Stalker tokens. This is because their platinum backs and status as treasure box only set them apart from standard pack rares.

"Other" encompasses anything that doesn't fit into the other categories. This could be anything from the pre-order bonus item (Gib Gub's Acorn) up to a legendary. These are tracked in aggregate because individually they don't appear often enough to matter, but it's useful to know how often you might pull something "cool".

The results are as follows:



Rares are the most likely pull, followed by Uncommon, Stalker Tokens, Monster Trophies and Other. Monster Trophies are of interest, as the pull rate seems lower than 2022, in line with what TPTB announced.

"Other" Detailed Breakdown
So, what exactly is inside the "Other" category? Lots of stuff! As noted, Everything from Ultra Rare tokens to transmutes to trade goods. Also the mysterious Silver Ship Passage Pemberton tokens.

For the "Other" category, I applied another level of grouping: Ultra Rare or Better and Under Ultra Rare. This roughly groups the tokens by "excitement" level of seeing them in treasure.

I'll admit this is a highly subjective rating. Some items - like 5,000 GP Mithral Bars and Silver Ship Passages - could easily have been in the Ultra Rare or Better category. Ultimately, I relied on some quick community polling to place items.

The results are:



Oddly enough, it seems like Ultra Rares are the most common pull in the "Other" category, followed by Exalted, Trade 1, Enhanced and Silver Ship Passages. The two Relic tokens, taken together, also had a decent drop rate (combined rate of about 5.5%).

Of note is that neither the Arcanum Shirt nor the Path to Enlightenment found their way into the treasure mix. 2023 legendaries were also in short supply this year.

Putting it all together
Finally, I wanted to look at all the categories together. This means mixing in the "Other" sub-categories with the broad "Overall Mix" categories to get a better view of what's in "Other".

The results are a bit illuminating:


It looks like the sum total of getting an "Ultra Rare or Better" in your pulls is almost exactly 1%. If that sounds familiar, it's because it aligns well with the "00" roll of an Ultra Rare in a 10-pack! So, good to see some consistency in philosophy

Also of interest is the chance of getting an Under Ultra Rare at 2.16%. Filtering out the Gib Gub Acorn puts that right around 2% - or twice the rate of Ultra Rare or Better.

Finally, there's a fun table of all the tokens listed by quantity pulled:


One odd thing here is only one 10x chip pulled this year. I have to wonder if that's someone who (understandably!) entered a Treasure Map as a 10x pull chip

Thanks for reading this all! Hopefully you enjoyed some of it like I did

Oh, and one last thing!

I know some of you are as big of data nerds as I am. As a little treat for you, I did some end-of-year work to pull out everyone's individual treasure totals. That is, anyone who entered data into the sheet can see their own personal stats.

For example, here's what I pulled over the course of 2023:


I've included two tabs here: one for your high level breakdown, and one for details.

For those of you who want to see your personal totals, here's the link to the sheet again:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rI4ARi3g6nsIyN_jzLuljiYKgiVwotZQaANvq0GbL9Q/edit?usp=sharing

Just as a note, I did a bit of normalization on the data when it was clear that specific people entered their names slightly differently for different events.

This is amazing: thank you so much !!!! I love this

You are welcome! I have one more analysis I want to do but it will wait until tomorrow

It would be cool to see who had the best and worst luck overall in terms of UR or better pulls. Is there any way to sort the data like that?

Fred

Fred K wrote: It would be cool to see who had the best and worst luck overall in terms of UR or better pulls. Is there any way to sort the data like that?

Fred

No.
Unless Marc is going to talk to that person first, there is no reason to call out someone for have "bad pulls".

Marc, thank you so much for this detailed analysis! Fascinating.

Grizwald wrote:

Fred K wrote: It would be cool to see who had the best and worst luck overall in terms of UR or better pulls. Is there any way to sort the data like that?

Fred

No.
Unless Marc is going to talk to that person first, there is no reason to call out someone for have "bad pulls".

I wasn't thinking individuals, more like user 12 ... not a problem at all, though. Thanks for all the work.

As always, fantastic job Marc!

Yeah, "bad pulls" and "good pulls" come and go. Been keeping track of my own for the past 12 years and been comparing it to the community averages since they've been tracked. Over the course of time, my pulls are about average. Last year was a very, very good year. Some years haven't been as kind. Looking forward to 2024.

Two more things to note about a "best pulls" tracker:
1. Google Sheets doesn't make it easy to get stats like percentage of parent row in a pivot, so it'd either be doing that work manually or taking it into Excel
2. There's a large disparity between the largest and smallest quantity entered (3756 and 5). That's enough to easily skew the numbers on who had the "best luck", because one good pull will push someone way up.

And sure enough, when I take the data into Excel and do % of Parent Row, people with fewer pulls are overly represented in the good luck/bad luck dichotomy. And the person with the most pulls skews very, very close to the overall averages.

So, seems like "best luck" is more a measure of "who got the best tokens with the fewest pulls"

This is great Marc! Thanks for doing this....wow great job everyone over 53,000 pulls recorded. That's kind of an amazing number when you think about it. Makes me appreciate John, Jeff, and the rest of the TD Warehouse crew (and Grunnel) with what they crank out from Carbondale every month! Thanks TD crew!

Looks like I posted both as “Dave A” and “David A” along the way last year. I’ll try to be more consistent this year.