TOPIC: 2nd Tooth of Cavadar - Why is it so rare?

I'm genuinely intrigued by why the 2nd Tooth of Cavadar is pricier (and I'm assuming in shorter supply) than the 1st Tooth. Does anyone know the story behind this?

Also, are there any clues at-all-whatsoever about what the special event in 2021?

The 6th Tooth will drop in 2020, and the 7th Tooth in 2021...so will owners of all the Tooths be transmuting them right away to attend the event within the same year?

This is simply what I heard, but I was told that one of the larger token-purchasers skipped that year for some reason or another, and that is why there appear to be less of them in circulation.

Take that second or third hand rumor for what it’s worth.

jpotter wrote: This is simply what I heard, but I was told that one of the larger token-purchasers skipped that year for some reason or another, and that is why there appear to be less of them in circulation.

Take that second or third hand rumor for what it’s worth.

Interesting. That's the first I'd heard of that.

Our group skipped gencon in 2016 for several reasons. Skipping gencon lead to skipping the TD purchase, which lost us the 2nd tooth, etc.

I believe there was a trend of “make sure you get the first” since the RoSP 1st year was so much more expensive, and as people we over compensated so year 2 ended with fewer 1k + orders.

The reason for it aside, 2nd tooth is the one people are valuing this cycle. Valuing doesn’t mean it is worth as I’ve seen it though.

From what I heard there was at least 3 less 8k orders then normally made by big token people so it ended up meaning less orbs and less teeth.

24 less is making a massive price
difference.

it will easily hit 1K (just like rod1 and 2 did)
there were more than 24 less.

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: it will easily hit 1K (just like rod1 and 2 did)
there were more than 24 less.

This just makes me even more curious as to how many 1000s were ordered in 2016.

How much of a difference does +/- 24 or so make on the total number?

In today's world, we're probably at something like +70.

Arnold wrote:

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: it will easily hit 1K (just like rod1 and 2 did)
there were more than 24 less.

This just makes me even more curious as to how many 1000s were ordered in 2016.

How much of a difference does +/- 24 or so make on the total number?

In today's world, we're probably at something like +70.

my order from 2015 to 2016 was a dramatic decrease. more than 24. a lot more than 24

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: my order from 2015 to 2016 was a dramatic decrease. more than 24. a lot more than 24

Damn. Thanks for the bonafide answer, Laz. That's great insight as to some of the shortage.

You accounting for much greater than -24 alone is intriguing.

Arnold wrote:

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: my order from 2015 to 2016 was a dramatic decrease. more than 24. a lot more than 24

Damn. Thanks for the bonafide answer, Laz. That's great insight as to some of the shortage.

You accounting for much greater than -24 alone is intriguing.

well from 1st to second, yea it was well more that 24 differnce

Because of the prevalence of $8k auctions now, the special items tied to them are much more common. The teeth are attached to $1K orders but when we see the number of auctions (representing 8 $1k's) more than double in two consecutive years (2017 to 2018), we go from these items being rare to common. So, back in 2016, a handful of bigger buyers (stores, primarily) cutting back would impact the market.

My guess is we've seen the total number of $8K orders more than double overall since 2016 if not triple.

If the RoSP are an indicator of how many $8K orders are done each year, I know the numbering goes well above 200 (though - the number everyone got was drawn at random, I can't say as to if close to all the numbers were drawn). The Origins Patron event had 60 slots and all but 1 of those sold out and that wouldn't represent all the individual buyers since not everyone goes to Origins. My best guess is there are 80-100 individuals who do orders of at least $8K and a small subset of those do 5+ of those. It used to be a handful of people would do more than 1 $8K but there are probably 15-20 now due to auctions.

It does make me wonder how much money TD loses in $250 PYP orders where people chose to do a PYP purchase from an $8K auction for $110 rather than put in the bigger order. That's a tangent away from your original question, though

Fred