TOPIC: Monster Trophies at Origins - Can we get an official response before Gen Con?

I think we have enough data to say monster bits at Origins were much lower than expected. Maybe percentage is not the less than 10% we have collected thus far but it is definitely much lower than we have seen any of the other years of this story arc. Jeff had said he was not lowering the bits till 2020. Did he change his mind? Was Origins a test run for 2020 and we will see higher percentage at Gen Con and the other cons of this season? Was it an improper mix either by the bits weren’t distributed well enough but there is a higher percentage or that someone forgot to hand a few hundred bits into the mix to get the percentage correct? If what we are seeing from Origins is what we can expect at Gen Con and the other cons we can adapt, but it would be nice to know so we can start trading for them at the cons and give players that don’t want them what their increased value will be.

I would agree that this information would be very helpful.

Changing the percentage is one thing, but not a huge issue. Nor is adding 50% more types of bits, because it definitely makes for more fun collecting.

Adding both together is difficult for all involved. As Jedi said, we can work with it, but knowing is very helpful.

As much as I'd like to know the answers, TD may be better off sticking to what they do every year and let us figure it out. It seems fairly consistent that the MB percentage at Origins was around 10%. If TD admits a mistake was made, I can just hear the outcry from people who will claim they were cheated and want something in return.

I do agree with the sentiments that we'll adapt. I would adapt now to assuming the percentage is 10% and move on. I really don't see TD changing mix percentages between cons. I think it's a bad precedence and has people starting to speculate on which cons they need to attend or if they can't make them all, do they just give up and quit the game? Different people will have different reactions, many of them bad.

I suppose they could just confirm that the percentage is lower this year and leave it at that, but I think we already know that based on evidence from Origins.

Dave wrote: As much as I'd like to know the answers, TD may be better off sticking to what they do every year and let us figure it out. It seems fairly consistent that the MB percentage at Origins was around 10%. If TD admits a mistake was made, I can just hear the outcry from people who will claim they were cheated and want something in return.

I do agree with the sentiments that we'll adapt. I would adapt now to assuming the percentage is 10% and move on. I really don't see TD changing mix percentages between cons. I think it's a bad precedence and has people starting to speculate on which cons they need to attend or if they can't make them all, do they just give up and quit the game? Different people will have different reactions, many of them bad.

I suppose they could just confirm that the percentage is lower this year and leave it at that, but I think we already know that based on evidence from Origins.

We don’t even know that though for sure. It could be the percentage was 15% and we all just got really unlucky. It is possible however improbable. I am not looking for them to fix anything just let us know since previously Jeff said he was not lowering bits till 2020. Again if he changed his mind that is fine, just knowing will help people be able to adapt.

This is a request. They can of course choose to ignore it or not to provide an answer. They should know that it is something every player I talked about bits at Origins was not expecting MB to be as low as 10%. Let me state that again EVERY single player I talked to was not expecting MB to be this low some did better than 10% but still were surprised but what seemed like lower percentage. Some were concerned over this. I am letting TD know there is some player concern (not all players but some). How they decide to address it is for them to choose.

dumb question - do the packs you buy either onsite or from td website have monster bits in them? or is it treasure pulls only? i ask because I got 0 at origins and that’s prnbably the only con i’ll get to until Origins 2020. That would definitely affect whether i buy a $250 pack or just buy singles. thx in advance.

Bill

William Dicks wrote: dumb question - do the packs you buy either onsite or from td website have monster bits in them? or is it treasure pulls only? i ask because I got 0 at origins and that’s prnbably the only con i’ll get to until Origins 2020. That would definitely affect whether i buy a $250 pack or just buy singles. thx in advance.

Bill

Monster Bits are Treasure Box Only.

jedibcg wrote:

Dave wrote: As much as I'd like to know the answers, TD may be better off sticking to what they do every year and let us figure it out. It seems fairly consistent that the MB percentage at Origins was around 10%. If TD admits a mistake was made, I can just hear the outcry from people who will claim they were cheated and want something in return.

I do agree with the sentiments that we'll adapt. I would adapt now to assuming the percentage is 10% and move on. I really don't see TD changing mix percentages between cons. I think it's a bad precedence and has people starting to speculate on which cons they need to attend or if they can't make them all, do they just give up and quit the game? Different people will have different reactions, many of them bad.

I suppose they could just confirm that the percentage is lower this year and leave it at that, but I think we already know that based on evidence from Origins.

We don’t even know that though for sure. It could be the percentage was 15% and we all just got really unlucky. It is possible however improbable. I am not looking for them to fix anything just let us know since previously Jeff said he was not lowering bits till 2020. Again if he changed his mind that is fine, just knowing will help people be able to adapt.

This is a request. They can of course choose to ignore it or not to provide an answer. They should know that it is something every player I talked about bits at Origins was not expecting MB to be as low as 10%. Let me state that again EVERY single player I talked to was not expecting MB to be this low some did better than 10% but still were surprised but what seemed like lower percentage. Some were concerned over this. I am letting TD know there is some player concern (not all players but some). How they decide to address it is for them to choose.

Anyone with a degree involving statistics? We have a spreadsheet with several data points. We can probably come up with a rough estimate of the total population size. Right now the overall average is slightly less than 10%. What's the statistical probability that the actual percentage is as high as 12% or 15%?

Dave wrote: Anyone with a degree involving statistics? We have a spreadsheet with several data points. We can probably come up with a rough estimate of the total population size. Right now the overall average is slightly less than 10%. What's the statistical probability that the actual percentage is as high as 12% or 15%?

Population size for Origins maybe. Population size for all the cons I don't think we would have close to a good idea.

Just thought about this, if 10% is the new normal going forward, there will be a lot less 3 and 4 start transmutes made, which should increase their relative value from the boxes.

Wade Schwendemann wrote: Just thought about this, if 10% is the new normal going forward, there will be a lot less 3 and 4 start transmutes made, which should increase their relative value from the boxes.

Only if they require monster bits. It could go back to gold or monster bits.

jedibcg wrote:

Wade Schwendemann wrote: Just thought about this, if 10% is the new normal going forward, there will be a lot less 3 and 4 start transmutes made, which should increase their relative value from the boxes.

Only if they require monster bits. It could go back to gold or monster bits.

Let's hope!

I still don't know what changed the Bead of the Lucky Traveler from needing 4 monster bits from 2016, 2017, and 2018. But somehow it needs 6 monster bits from 2019. I cannot find any rationale for that.

During the discussion for the stats on the beads, if people were told that:

a) 6 monster bits were required for 2019
b) Monster bits were going to be about 10% of the treasure mix

The discussion might have gone in an entirely different direction.