TOPIC: PYP, Wish Ring, Orb of dragonkind starting bids $1

You know, you're currently only getting $2362.50 for your 960 packs. I wonder if you'd be best off leaving them out of the auction, and breaking them down and selling the components after the auction.

You'd get about $1K worth of UR's - maybe more if you got lucky and got the URs like the TEUR. From what I hear, you'd have about a 50% shot at a Golden Ticket, which is worth $1,000 - $1,500 I think. I'm sure someone else has already done the calculations (or could do them quickly) at how many trade item tokens and GP on average you could turn the Rares/Uncommons/Commons into (and you'd probably keep some of the more valuable Rares and Uncommons to sell separately), but I'd guess you'd be way ahead of the $2362.50 you're at now.

Anybody want to reply with the amount of Trade Item Tokens and GP he could expect to get on average - and maybe what the market value of those would be?

Mike Steele wrote:
Anybody want to reply with the amount of Trade Item Tokens and GP he could expect to get on average - and maybe what the market value of those would be?

Short answer: in 2016 without a golden ticket 960 10 packs could be expected to generate $3840 is sell-able materials. I haven't bothered figuring out 2017, I expect it would be similar though.

Expected value per 10 pack of slightly over $4 with the following assumptions:
gold at $16 per 1k
aragonite at $35
bismuth/oil at $16
the rest of the trade goods at $3 each
1/100 chance of an UR with an average value of $85
No chance of a golden ticket (I had no information to even guess at an appropriate rate to put in for it)

And the following not so conservative assumptions
All tokens turned into trade goods perfectly with no leftovers
All gold and trade tokens sell out (these are slightly lower prices than one can normally find I think so could get close to selling out but obviously a risk if there's no demand for some of the less used trade goods)
The mix of random URs doesn't skew towards the less valuable ones
All random URs are sold
Buyers cover any shipping expenses
No losses in shipping
No losses to fraudulent buyers

It should be possible to put a dollar figure on the risks ignored by the second batch of assumptions, I wasn't interested enough to find out how to do that though.

Aegoce wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:
Anybody want to reply with the amount of Trade Item Tokens and GP he could expect to get on average - and maybe what the market value of those would be?

Short answer: in 2016 without a golden ticket 960 10 packs could be expected to generate $3840 is sell-able materials. I haven't bothered figuring out 2017, I expect it would be similar though.

Expected value per 10 pack of slightly over $4 with the following assumptions:
gold at $16 per 1k
aragonite at $35
bismuth/oil at $16
the rest of the trade goods at $3 each
1/100 chance of an UR with an average value of $85
No chance of a golden ticket (I had no information to even guess at an appropriate rate to put in for it)

And the following not so conservative assumptions
All tokens turned into trade goods perfectly with no leftovers
All gold and trade tokens sell out (these are slightly lower prices than one can normally find I think so could get close to selling out but obviously a risk if there's no demand for some of the less used trade goods)
The mix of random URs doesn't skew towards the less valuable ones
All random URs are sold
Buyers cover any shipping expenses
No losses in shipping
No losses to fraudulent buyers

It should be possible to put a dollar figure on the risks ignored by the second batch of assumptions, I wasn't interested enough to find out how to do that though.

So - they would generate either around $3,840 without a Golden Ticket, or around $5K with a Golden Ticket. Either way, a lot more than $2,362. It is admittedly a lot more work to convert it all to trade item tokens, and sell them and the GP.

My first request: on the front page, can you please include the current total of what you are at? I Ike seeing how close it is to the goal, and it is quite time consuming to have to recalculate it every time I check (because it's hard to see at a glance if any prices changed, so I have to recalculate even when there was no change, plus I can't tell how much it changed by, so I have to do the longhand computation of it).

Besides that, is the goal still $8300? Or has that changed? What is the deadline to still get the treasure tokens? By default, that would be the next impending deadline for this order at the very least. Also, I like the idea of giving a warning of when the auction will end so everyone gets their bids in. If it ends by meeting the financial goal early, I also have been a fan of one of the other forumites auction style where an individual item up for auction closes 24 hours after the last bid made on it (once that "auction closing" warning commences). It limits the ability to snipe last minute.

Are the prices displayed the highest bid? Or the price the current highest bidder will be paying? Will you be notifying people just that they are the highest bidder or what they will currently be paying based on the current bids?

Anthony Barnstable wrote:
Besides that, is the goal still $8300? Or has that changed? What is the deadline to still get the treasure tokens? By default, that would be the next impending deadline for this order at the very least. Also, I like the idea of giving a warning of when the auction will end so everyone gets their bids in. If it ends by meeting the financial goal early, I also have been a fan of one of the other forumites auction style where an individual item up for auction closes 24 hours after the last bid made on it (once that "auction closing" warning commences). It limits the ability to snipe last minute.

Are the prices displayed the highest bid? Or the price the current highest bidder will be paying? Will you be notifying people just that they are the highest bidder or what they will currently be paying based on the current bids?

The deadline for pre orders is Jan. 20th. I am going to be putting the next impending deadline for Jan. 2nd 5 p.m. central time.

I will be posting what the price to be paid is, not what the highest bid is.

Anthony Barnstable wrote: Will you be notifying people just that they are the highest bidder or what they will currently be paying based on the current bids?

I will be notifying people that they are highest bidder and what they will currently be paying. I will try to keep everyone updated as more bids come in, if their price to be paid goes up. You should have a pretty good idea based off of your highest bid and what is currently posted on the first page. If there are any questions as to where you are at, you can feel free to PM me.

Rob F wrote: Good luck McDroggin, even with the Orb and ticket to TD this spring I don't think you'll get there. And can you remind us why you are doing this in the first place? Are you bidding on some of the items yourself? If not what's your take?

Thanks and yes I am bidding on a couple of PYP. I originally kept them out of the bidding, but added them in so that they added to the total goal. It would be much easier to just get from someone else's order, but I enjoy doing things like this and hope that this one is successful. Provided that it is, I plan on doing more like this.

updated bids

Auction is a success, the current high bids are listed and you have until Jan. 14th to get your bids in. I will post the winning bids on the 15th and notify all winners then as well

McDroggin wrote: Auction is a success, the current high bids are listed and you have until Jan. 14th to get your bids in. I will post the winning bids on the 15th and notify all winners then as well

Great to hear. What time on the 14th are you ending the auction?

Mike Steele wrote:

McDroggin wrote: Auction is a success, the current high bids are listed and you have until Jan. 14th to get your bids in. I will post the winning bids on the 15th and notify all winners then as well

Great to hear. What time on the 14th are you ending the auction?

Midnight central time

McDroggin wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

McDroggin wrote: Auction is a success, the current high bids are listed and you have until Jan. 14th to get your bids in. I will post the winning bids on the 15th and notify all winners then as well

Great to hear. What time on the 14th are you ending the auction?

Midnight central time

Thanks. I was hoping it would be earlier for those of us that go to bed early.