TOPIC: Google Doc for 2016-2017 Season Treasure Pulls

As much complaining there was about people pulling legendaries we have almost 4,000 pulls on the spreadsheet and still only the one legendary.

I will let Allen John comment on how sure we can be of the .025% of a legendary chance there is.

Allen John wrote: Quick update:

Rare*: 36.83-39.79%
Unc*: 36.43-39.39%
Bits: 16.53-18.85%
Other: 5.23-6.67%

Obviously, the R/U ratio now has giant asterisks to account for those who didn't track, but there's no reason to believe they wouldn't be the same.

Interestingly, not only is 20% outside of the bits range, we've also overshot 5% for the "other" category.

At this point I think we have enough data to assume that the overall breakdown went something like 38/38/18/6. I don't think more data is going to change those percentages very much.

If more data is helpful, it's probably in the area of the "Other" breakdown. Just adding one more legendary would change that percentage a lot, but would probably have little to no impact to the overall "Other" percentage.

Dave wrote:

Allen John wrote: Quick update:

Rare*: 36.83-39.79%
Unc*: 36.43-39.39%
Bits: 16.53-18.85%
Other: 5.23-6.67%

Obviously, the R/U ratio now has giant asterisks to account for those who didn't track, but there's no reason to believe they wouldn't be the same.

Interestingly, not only is 20% outside of the bits range, we've also overshot 5% for the "other" category.

At this point I think we have enough data to assume that the overall breakdown went something like 38/38/18/6. I don't think more data is going to change those percentages very much.

If more data is helpful, it's probably in the area of the "Other" breakdown. Just adding one more legendary would change that percentage a lot, but would probably have little to no impact to the overall "Other" percentage.

It would depend on how much additional data we got. Another 4000 pulls worth could either solidify our numbers or move us quite a bit (depending on that 4k).

I know there are a few other big pullers out there, though they may or may not want to contribute. I am happy to see Laz added his. I also think it is note worthy that no eldritch tokens. I did not hear or see of any pulled either. I may have seen one dragon orb, but cannot confirm if it was a pull or someone just had one.

It would be interesting to see Smakdowns numbers. I understand he pulled a Charm of Avarice.

I'm guessing the actual numbers are 40/40/15/5. But it's just a guess.

Added the pulls from my group, looks like it is converging.

jedibcg wrote: As much complaining there was about people pulling legendaries we have almost 4,000 pulls on the spreadsheet and still only the one legendary.

I will let Allen John comment on how sure we can be of the .025% of a legendary chance there is.

Sorry, my calculator doesn't go below 1%. :-P

(FWIW, the confidence interval at 1% is +/- 0.3%.)

I am wondering what Joshua Baessler didn't pull???

jedibcg wrote: I also think it is note worthy that no eldritch tokens. I did not hear or see of any pulled either.

there was a boots of the four winds pulled in my group. i know it was sold at the con to a forumite (i'll let them chime in if they want). i didn't add my numbers to the sheet because i didn't take my usual care this year in tracking what was pulled, so i didn't want to muddy the results with sub-par data.

from what i remember though, we had 226 pulls, 1 eldritch, 2 URs, 2(ish) 3-pointed transmutes, 3(ish) trade items (including a golden fleece), and i wanna say ~20 monster bits...no idea on the rare/uncommon breakdown.

Cool that is good to know that there were Eldritch in the boxes, but it looks like it may have been pretty rare.

I misplaced my breakdown, but pulled 136 times. Got 4 URs, one Legendary, one Trade item and 4 low level Relics.... I think my bits were 19 total, with the rest slightly heavy on Uncommons


I won't enter my totals until I find my numbers.

Added my data, don't think it changes anything much.

I added two new calculation columns percent of MB and percent of other. I also highlighted the highest of each of these categories by percent (so you know who to ask to pull for you) in green. And the lowest of each category red. I did the second lowest in orange, because 0% is just because they didn't have many pulls. I would recommend pulling after the orange folks.