TOPIC: Proposed Breakdowns for 2024 Condensed

My working assumption is that the $8k super-condensed orders are supposed to represent what you would get if you opened 960 10-packs with perfect distribution. That means:
24 sets of Rares
48 sets of Uncommons
168 sets of Commons

I hadn't considered multiplying the condensed order by 8 and then adding in the Uncommons/Rares. That seems like more work to me mathematically, but I can understand where that derivation may come from.

That also makes sense in the variance of Dwarven Steel I noticed. Druegar has exactly 8x DS from the Condensed order (9.24, rounded to 9). Whereas I did 9.24*8=73.92 then rounded. That makes sense why it's 72 in Druegar's calculations and 74 in mine.

OK, I did a second set of arithmetic based on the following process:
1. Determine expected return for 1k condensed order (just the commons) with rounding using standard rules
2. Multiply the 1k condensed order by 8 to get amounts for an 8k condensed order
3. Add in the expected values of the Uncommon and Rare tokens from an 8k order

This arithmetic matches what Druegar has much better. With that method, I get the following items all agree with Druegar's count:
GP
Alchemist's Ink
Alchemist's Parchment
Aragonite
Darkwood Plank
Dwarven Steel
Minotaur Hide
Mystic Silk
Oil of Enhchantment
Philosopher's Stone

The following two items still disagree and I think I may know why:
Enchanter's Munition: If you change the number of Common EM tokens from 1 to 2, my numbers match Druegar's exactly. But I count only 1 common EM token, so it should be 18 (not 25)
Elven Bismuth: If you change the number of Uncommon EB tokens from 6 to 5, my numbers match. But, I count 6 Uncommon EB tokens.

I can also account for my other variances based on the methodology used (960 packs vs. condensed * 8 + Uncommons/Rares):
Alchemist's Parchment: I predict 49 instead of 53
This is because I predict 2.52 AP in a 1k order. If you multiply by 8, that's only 20 instead of the 24 you get if you round. That accounts for the difference of 4 between my prediction and Druegar's proposal.


Dwarven Steel: I predict 74 instead of 72
This is because I predict 9.24 DS in the 1k order. When you round down to 9, you lose ~.25 DS per 1k order. .25*8 = 2, which is exactly the variance between my prediction and Druegar's proposal.

Philosopher's Stone: I predict 96 instead of 93
This is because I predict 3.36 PS in a 1k order. When you round down to 3, you lose .36 PS per 1k order. .36*8 = 2.88. Round that to 3 and you have exactly the variance between my prediction and Druegar's proposal.

For the 1k I rather have the AI then the distilled healing.

updated numbers in bold

1K Condensed (no changes)
3 -- Alchemist's Parchment
5 -- Darkwood Plank
2 -- Distilled Healing
9 -- Dwarven Steel
1 -- Enchanter's Munition
5 -- Minotaur Hide
6 -- Mystic Silk
3 -- Philosopher's Stone
1,000 -- GP

8K Super Condensed
35 -- Alchemist's Ink
53 -- Alchemist's Parchment
12 -- Aragonite
115 -- Darkwood Plank
16 -- Distilled Healing
72 -- Dwarven Steel
12 -- Elven Bismuth
20 -- Enchanter's Munition
40 -- Minotaur Hide
134 -- Mystic Silk
10 -- Oil of Enchantment
93 -- Philosopher's Stone
44,000 -- GP

Rob F wrote: Could we get an option for Condensed but without the Distilled Healing? So more Ink to replace the Distilled Healing?

I agree. I'd rather have 6 more AI than the 16 potions.

James wrote: For the 1k I rather have the AI then the distilled healing.

I will cast another vote for an option that gave AI rather than distilled healing.

Jeff Greene wrote:

James wrote: For the 1k I rather have the AI then the distilled healing.

I will cast another vote for an option that gave AI rather than distilled healing.

+1

updated numbers in bold

1K Condensed
4× PYPs
1× Ring of the 3rd Circle
1–2× Random 2024 UR(s)
120× Random Rares (12 platinum)
240× Random Uncommons (24 platinum)
1× Alchemist's Ink
3× Alchemist's Parchment
5× Darkwood Plank
2× Distilled Healing
9× Dwarven Steel
1× Enchanter's Munition
5× Minotaur Hide
6× Mystic Silk
3× Philosopher's Stone
1,000 GP
Normal chance of a Golden Ticket

8K Super Condensed
either 16×, 32×, or 34× PYPs (depending on the Onyx Set option you select)
8× Ring of the 3rd Circle
1× Path to Enlightenment (Fragment 2)
1× Wish Ring
1× Patron Lapel Pin
4× AG buttons
4× Mark of the 3rd Tenet
9–10× random URs
43× Alchemist's Ink
53× Alchemist's Parchment
12× Aragonite
115× Darkwood Plank
16× Distilled Healing
72× Dwarven Steel
12× Elven Bismuth
20× Enchanter's Munition
40× Minotaur Hide
134× Mystic Silk
10× Oil of Enchantment
93× Philosopher's Stone
45,000 GP
Normal chance of a Golden Ticket

Safehold Super Condensed
either 16×, 32×, or 34× PYPs (depending on the Onyx Set option you select)
8× Ring of the 3rd Circle
1× Path to Enlightenment (Fragment 2)
1× Wish Ring
1× Patron Lapel Pin
4× AG buttons
4× Mark of the 3rd Tenet
9–10× random URs
45,000 GP
5× Hireling Stewards
5× Underling Stewards
1× Safehold III
5× Follower Stewards
Normal chance of a Golden Ticket

Thanks for all the great feedback on tweaking the offerings. It is much appreciated.