While I'm not in any position to speculate on the price of gold at the con, I did want to comment on the EBay thing.<br /><br />I'm not convinced there is any "crash" in the price of UR items on ebay that can't be explained through some basic data-mining.<br /><br />The only real surprise I found in a check of every UR ebayed in the last 2 weeks was a
Girdle of Hill Giant Strength, selling for $107.51 as part of a larger collection. This item, however, was not mentioned in the name of the listing, nor was "ultra-rare" included anywhere in the entire listing. The token name was hidden in an internal description and not trumpeted as it should have been, so was likely overlooked by the majority of searchers. By my assessment, this was an absolute steal. The girdle by itself should have commanded more than this entire collection did, but it was very poorly listed.<br /><br />A
+2 Longsword not selling, posted at $99, isn't overly suprising. While I love my +2 Longsword, the weapon is very unimpressive by purple standards. It has no special powers, and no flair to it at all. It is for all practical purposes, a normal longsword that's +2 to hit/damage. People willing to dump money in to a purple weapon on ebay will seek a fancier weapon than this, if they don't just
PYP one in their token-buy. Also, by the auction being started at $99, it discouraged bid wars. EBay bidders will pay the same or more for an item that started low than one that started high (illogical but true). Suffice to say, an attempt to sell a second one straight-up at $139.99 also failed.<br /><br />This fact is demonstrated by the two
Horns of Plenty listed in non-store auction in the last 2 weeks. One that was bid up to $218.03 with 11 bids, and one that went unsold at $222 asking price. Would the person who bid $218.03 have been willing to pay $222 in normal bidding? Yes, I'm sure of it, but starting that high discourages bidders (and it doesn't help that the seller was a bit of a tool, and started by trying to sell 4 for like $1200). The same merchant who attempted the $139.99 +2 Longsword also tried $149.99 for a
+1 Mithral Longsword and a
+1 Might Long Bow. These are prices that could possibly be achieved, IF a real bidding auction was attempted instead of a high start price. Nobody wants to plunk down that money if they don't need to. Same for
+1 Broadsword of Lifestealing ($129.99) and
+1 Tower Shield ($144.99), unsold at achievable prices.<br /><br />
Troll Hide Armor sold for $73.35, not a bad price, and one I might be willing to pay if I was feeling rich. Problem is, only one class needs Troll Hide Armor. Everybody but the Barbarian has better armor available to them (in several cases green or red armor, even), and if in the market for purp, will probably pursue better solutions. This price for an item only one class needs isn't bad. What is bad is the previously mentioned unsuccessful seller trying to BIN another of these for $125, double the price on the open market.<br /><br />The
Ring of Focus at $61.01 was our lowball Purp of the last couple weeks. Let's be honest though, it isn't that great! While it's nice to get 1 extra point on healing or damage, there are half a dozen rings that will probably be more valuable to you and your party on a dungeon run. If this one point makes the difference for you in the dungeon, you're probably not in the market for ebay purple.<br /><br />The
Ring of Wizardry, at a healthy $96 even, demonstrates the market for a useful ring. This ring turns misses in to hits, and instead of adding just 1 point, can actually double damage on some of the most powerful spells in game. Why does it not command a higher price? It's a single class item, not just in terms of need, but even in terms of capability of using it. ONLY a wizard can use this, and that's a limited market. The same person with all the unsold high-price weapons mentioned earlier got a bit greedy and tried to BIN one of these rings at $125, and failed. Also running afoul of the "single class usability" curse was a
Widseth's Mystical Lute, unsold at $139.99. Even for something as cool as this ring or the lute, these prices are too high when you can
PYP one at $250, and get 300 other tokens to boot.<br /><br />An
Amulet of Wonder joined its earlier unsold companions by being posted with a $149.99 BIN asking price. This amulet, while very cool, has limited appeal. Why? Because after this year, it will be a hard sell to use this against a
Medallion of Greyhawk for players used to purp-monstering, or a Horn of Plenty for those on easy runs. Amulets are now overflowing with awesomeness, and without knowing its future effects, this is a risky investment at a high starting price. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />
Facts:<br /><br />- Every unsold item, except the Horn of Plenty, is something that was available in this year's run as a PYP.<br /><br />- The items sold for the lowest prices were of limited utility or usability.<br /><br />- Every item that was unsold, even in what might otherwise be an acceptable price range, was posted with a high starting price. It has been demonstrated repeatedly, and EBay will be all to happy to provide the research, that high starting prices discourage any bids whatsoever.<br /><br /><br />
Speculation:<br /><br />- This close to the convention, with the economy doing what it is, peoples' gaming dollars are being spent on getting to the convention and buying tickets, or paying for hotels, food, and game materials once there. Splurging on something like a purple is therefore limited.<br /><br />- The increase in items with specific class restrictions chokes the market on more widely usable, less powerful items, by creating specialists who just PYP what they need.<br /><br /><br />
Suggestion:<br /><br />- High prices will be achieved by selling something with A) wide usability,
high utility, and C) a low starting price to encourage bids. The Horn of Plenty is a perfect example. It is usable by all classes, has undeniable utility for any player in any group, and started at 99 cents, selling in the end for well over $200.