Kirk Bauer wrote: Yeah, that seems very unusual. The only explanation I can possibly come up with is that somebody had previously turned in a set to get a RoSP and then Jeff recycled the components, and that Seg 7 was fake. But that would mean that he missed it the first time through, and didn't notice when mailing it out too. Also, seg 7 seems a strange one to counterfeit.
Have you ever seen the transmute room? (I am pretty sure you must have stopped by, such as at this past WYC).
There are over half a dozen different people (usually non-Jeff people) all going through the transmutes. So it seems plausible that one of them could miss something that would get caught by another person.
In the case of RoSP, TD might be a bit stricter about which volunteers are permitted to do Rod transmutes. (For example, I think Dave probably does a disproportionate amount of those, which also means greater consistency in inspection and acceptance since Dave is really good with tokens). But the point is in the case of recycled RoSP segments, it is quite feasible that Jeff might not have been the person to inspect it the first time around.
Brad wrote: As a thought exercise based on this thread I worked out how to make high end fakes of any non green or non orange token base for very little. I will email Jeff about this directly and no I won't share the process.
Theoretically, one could also "fake" the backing of a token by swapping stickers.
For example, say you have a Gold-backed UR and an Onyx-backed Common. You could potentially remove the stickers and swap them, ending up with an Onyx UR and a Gold-backed Common. The main challenge would be removing the plastic coating and stickers without damaging them.
And if one did this, they would be "pseudo-legit" in that the backing and stickers were all valid (it's just that you cheated by reconstituting/rearranging genuine components in an unethical way).
Alvin Oliver wrote: I did see and get some of the fake treasure tokens last year. Glad that everything was resolved quite well by Jeff. I have always thought a watermark on the token would be nice, but I don't know how much that adds to token cost. Also it would not help with older TD tokens.
Well, at least the completed RoSP are numbered, which helps slightly with counterfeiting.
I still maintain that the Mithral Coin of Fate was a bad idea, since it reintroduced so many out-of-print tokens into circulation, thus grossly distorting the amount known to be around.
henwy wrote: So far, with the exception of Lazlo, he hasn't named anyone. I see no reason why he shouldn't. I've sold rod pieces before and if I had passed on a fake I could tell you exactly where I got it from and we could all work backward to figure out the source. I have no idea why he would choose to only name the person who did the right thing and refunded and has been totally upfront about his role while keeping all the supposed other reputable sources anonymous. The entire idea of secrecy in this only makes everything more suspect. Any counterfeiter who's going for a pure profit motive will try to move as many of his items as the market can bear. The idea that we can't track down this person is ridiculous. I might not be able to say off the top of my head where a token came from but I for sure as hell have PMs, emails, paypal history, ebay history, etc and within a couple hours I could tell you exactly where it's from.
I am not going to comment directly on the finger-pointing issue (I have no personal opinion on it at this time) but as a thought exercise, let me suggest two hypothetical scenarios (a dishonest transmuter and a dishonest wholesaler):
Scenario A: Dishonest transmuter
A smart (or cunning/ruthless) counterfeiter who wanted to transmute those forgeries would probably WANT to buy legit copies of those tokens (probably from big token sellers who will have a harder time tracking an individual token they sold when they have multiple copies, and who may be eager to preserve their reputation).
So what he should do is to buy legit copies (of the various Rod segments in this hypothetical example), then swap them for forgeries and turn them in. And if he gets caught, he can claim he got the forgeries (which were swapped in) from legit big token sellers.
Scenario B: Dishonest big token seller
Small token sellers are unlikely to have multiple copies of valuable tokens, so it is easier for them to establish chain-of-custody by reviewing their previous trades.
Big token sellers are likely to have multiple copies. So even if they have good records, they may not be able to firmly establish where counterfeit token X came from if he has a dozen copies which he got from a dozen different people.
Of course that fact also gives the big token seller some deniability.
So a dishonest big token seller could introduce a fake, and then claim "well the fake must have come from one of these dozen people." That way, they can shift the blame without singling out one individual person (who would work diligently to prove their innocence).
You also have the complication that big token buyers are probably more likely to be buying "complete collections" from players leaving the game. When they are bulk buying thousands of tokens, how much quality control / inspection are they willing to do on each token? Also note that for an unethical wholesaler, buying tokens from such a person provides a perfect fall guy. Who better to blame than someone who has left the game, probably won't be on the forums to defend themselves, and might not ever be seen again by TD'ers?
All of the above was just hypothetical stuff. I take no position (and point no fingers) about this current predicament.
So while I am personally very interested in hearing more details about who did what and who might have done what, it is important to point out that things can get a lot more complicated if anyone is intentionally trying to be sneaky.