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TOPIC: Indiana plan to re-open

Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #73

it's the new math they're teaching. :laugh:
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #74

smakdown wrote: it's the new math they're teaching. :laugh:


I was among the first to learn new math. I do just fine thank you.
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #75

jedibcg wrote:

Harlax wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Allen John wrote: Given that the virus has killed 0.24% of the population of New York City, this is impossible.


Please explain what you are attempting to say. The population of NYC is about 8.4 million. .24% of that would be about 84k deaths. That is the total deaths for the entire US, so I am not certain what you are saying.


Check your math. Its .24% which is about 20,000

You are correct, dunno howI was getting 84k.


And for what it's worth, here is where I got my 20k number from. As I type this, the total number of confirmed + probable deaths is 20,406, and since I'm not crazy enough to think there's a shadowy cabal of doctors making this up for...reasons?...I believe that the "probable" number is somewhere in the ball park.
Last edit: by Allen John.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #76

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Allen John wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Harlax wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Allen John wrote: Given that the virus has killed 0.24% of the population of New York City, this is impossible.


Please explain what you are attempting to say. The population of NYC is about 8.4 million. .24% of that would be about 84k deaths. That is the total deaths for the entire US, so I am not certain what you are saying.


Check your math. Its .24% which is about 20,000

You are correct, dunno howI was getting 84k.


And for what it's worth, here is where I got my 20k number from. As I type this, the total number of confirmed + probable deaths is 20,406, and since I'm not crazy enough to think there's a shadowy cabal of doctors making this up for...reasons?...I believe that the "probable" number is somewhere in the ball park.


Yes, those numbers are correct for the current situation in NYC. But you can't just take the numbers from NYC and call the numbers gathered elsewhere impossible. Especially when (at least from how the news has presented it) the NYC hospital system was overwhelmed more than most other parts of the country.

Looking at your NYC source: ~20k deaths out of a population of 8.4M. 0.24% of population as you stated.

Current Marion county numbers (as close as I can find data for "Indianapolis"): ~500 deaths out of a population of 960k. That's 0.05% dead compared to the 0.24% of NYC.

Current state of Indiana numbers: ~1,600 dead (including probable) out of a population of 6.7M (~0.024% dead)

Current US numbers: ~87k dead out of a population of 328M (0.027% dead)

I'm definitely not calling your numbers wrong either. Just saying that the numbers can be different in different places. So drawing a conclusion based on just one area and saying that observations from elsewhere are impossible is probably not the way to go. Of course, since deaths can only go up, those %s can only go up. So we might all wind up at the NYC percentage (or maybe higher, or maybe somewhere in between).
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #77

We are arguing about a statistic that I don't find particularly useful or informative. The statistics I find useful are incidence (how many cases as a whole number), prevalence (percentage of population with the condition) and mortality (rate of death among those with the condition).
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir
Last edit: by Harlax.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #78

I think everyone's numbers are correct, but I just think it's presumptive to make any conclusions based on them.

If I want to look at the number of closed cases across the entire world, I see that about 1.7 million have recovered and about 300 thousand have died. That gives me a mortality rate of 15%. Yikes! But I also know there are a lot of infected people that were never tested and thus never became a case. So, common sense tells me the real mortality rate is a lot lower. How much lower? Who knows.

The variables used to come up with these numbers are just to broad to think we really know what the final numbers will be. Whether or not you're looking at New York or Indiana, you can't compare the number of deaths to the entire population. You're assuming 100% were exposed/infected. Again, common sense tells me a higher percentage of people in New York were infected, thus the higher percentage of cases and death. But how much more? I don't know.

As for the rest of the world, some places either aren't reporting accurate numbers or just don't have the capability to accurately count. So I think we need to take all of these numbers with a grain of salt. The only thing I know at this point is that 300K people have died and more are going to die. How many more I think is open to debate. But depending upon who you want to believe, it will be months, years or never before we have a vaccine. So the number that finally end up dying may end up being the same, the only difference is whether they die over the course of the next six months, six years or somewhere in-between. Take your pick.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #79

Dave wrote: I think everyone's numbers are correct, but I just think it's presumptive to make any conclusions based on them.

If I want to look at the number of closed cases across the entire world, I see that about 1.7 million have recovered and about 300 thousand have died. That gives me a mortality rate of 15%. Yikes! But I also know there are a lot of infected people that were never tested and thus never became a case. So, common sense tells me the real mortality rate is a lot lower. How much lower? Who knows.

The variables used to come up with these numbers are just to broad to think we really know what the final numbers will be. Whether or not you're looking at New York or Indiana, you can't compare the number of deaths to the entire population. You're assuming 100% were exposed/infected. Again, common sense tells me a higher percentage of people in New York were infected, thus the higher percentage of cases and death. But how much more? I don't know.

As for the rest of the world, some places either aren't reporting accurate numbers or just don't have the capability to accurately count. So I think we need to take all of these numbers with a grain of salt. The only thing I know at this point is that 300K people have died and more are going to die. How many more I think is open to debate. But depending upon who you want to believe, it will be months, years or never before we have a vaccine. So the number that finally end up dying may end up being the same, the only difference is whether they die over the course of the next six months, six years or somewhere in-between. Take your pick.


That’s not how mortality is calculated.

Also you want a longer period of time, often a year, for a more reliable number.
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #80

I rather not be in the 300,000 dead.

As for vaccines - it doesn't provide 100% protection... for chickenpox, it's 95% effective. Right now there is 0% for COVID 19. I know us gamers don't want to have our cons canceled but let's be real for a minute. The COVID is on the uptick still and hasn't plateaued yet. This is why the cons are canceling and rescheduling. Government agency are just now phasing in people back to work and some have people off work until 1 August.

Heck I have been going to Gen Con since 1979, I rather have it happen, but not at the risk of other peoples lives.
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Last edit: by Kaledor.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #81

Even the amount of people that died strictly due to COVID-19 is uncertain. Some percentage of them would likely have passed away even without COVID-19, it's probably impossible to determine how much of a percentage that is though.

If GENCON is held, whether or not I attend isn't as dependent on my health as it is my loved ones when I return. I've returned from numerous GENCONs with the flu and passed it on to my wife, I don't want to risk that with COVID-19. Plus, if they open up the nursing homes for visitors again, my attending GENCON might disqualify my wife and I from visiting her Mom for a period of time.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #82

I have said it over and over. If anyone doesn’t feel safe don’t go. Nobody is forcing you.
As for risking others lives...have you been to Home Depot, Lowe’s, Costco, sams club Walmart or target. Those people have not been listening so everyone they come in contact with is just as likely. I will take my chances at a con
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #83

They have a description for that: Asymptomatic carrier.

Yes, at some point it make sense to start easing restrictions. Few states meet those criteria. If It were just risk to you, knock yourself out. But its not.
D&D teaches all the important lessons in life - the low blow, the cheap shot, the back stab, the double cross. - Jerry Marsischky

Let them trap us. We have our swords. - Elric of Melnibone.

You try to get them to play the game, but all they want to do is play the rules. - Ardak Kumerian

I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend - Faramir
Last edit: by Harlax.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #84

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: I have said it over and over. If anyone doesn’t feel safe don’t go. Nobody is forcing you.
As for risking others lives...have you been to Home Depot, Lowe’s, Costco, sams club Walmart or target. Those people have not been listening so everyone they come in contact with is just as likely. I will take my chances at a con

I have small children, so Absolutely not on Home Depot and Lowe’s. One person from the house leaves every 2-3 weeks for grocery shopping. We have t had to do target yet, but paper goods will need to be acquired within the next several weeks.

The small children bit is extremely important. At some point, we will be forced back to work in person, and that in turn will mean the kids will have to go to daycare. 4 and under can’t conceptualize social distancing, so they need to not be exposed. I refuse to be the parent that gives their kids covid from going to a con / Home Depot, etc, that then goes to daycare and transmits it to all the other kids there. When those kids take it home That can (and for some people will) be how a parent / grandparent dies of covid.
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