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TOPIC: Indiana plan to re-open

Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #61

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Allen John wrote:

cdsmith wrote: Pretty much this. Several studies are finding out that far more people have already had COVID-19. One prison that was studied showed that 98% of the inmates had COVID-19 antibodies and 96% of those infected never had symptoms. With the new data it looks like it has a death rate of 0.05% in the general population.


Given that the virus has killed 0.24% of the population of New York City, this is impossible.


You have to account for the whole world. NYC isn't the whole world. Larger numbers will obviously reduce the rate.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #62

I would rather not be in the 0.05%. Having 200,000 people in one spot is like having a petri dish growing bacteria. A break out will happen. My government agency is saying we are staying home until August now.

I love my Gen Con and have attended it since 1979... I would hate to miss one, but my life is more important. Until they have a vaccine or a cure, it is a no go for us.

Cheers,
Ed
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #63

Kaledor wrote: I would rather not be in the 0.05%. Having 200,000 people in one spot is like having a petri dish growing bacteria. A break out will happen. My government agency is saying we are staying home until August now.

I love my Gen Con and have attended it since 1979... I would hate to miss one, but my life is more important. Until they have a vaccine or a cure, it is a no go for us.

Cheers,
Ed


Well said. I'm paddling in the boat right next to you..
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #64

Rob F wrote:

Kaledor wrote: I would rather not be in the 0.05%. Having 200,000 people in one spot is like having a petri dish growing bacteria. A break out will happen. My government agency is saying we are staying home until August now.

I love my Gen Con and have attended it since 1979... I would hate to miss one, but my life is more important. Until they have a vaccine or a cure, it is a no go for us.

Cheers,
Ed


Well said. I'm paddling in the boat right next to you..


This is made a lot easier by having missed one 2 years ago. Otherwise I would actually be looking to keep my streak going, or at least considering it, despite the risks.

I may not be all that smart honestly.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #65

Rebeg wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: If it does happen, I'm curious to see how big the attendance drop off will be. I periodically check the GENCON Housing Block to see if Embassy Suites downtown opens up, and I have yet to see any hotels available closer than 6 miles. It seems the majority of people are at least keeping the option to attend open.

We did an impromptu poll on the fan page. Seems to be a decent number of attendees who have badges and rooms that are waiting to see if Gencon cancels who don't plan on attending, so they don't have to cancel themselves and eat the cancellation cost.

Cutoff date for the hotel one full night charge is June 8th. I would suspect that a few days before there will be a lot of DT rooms popping up as people don't want to get nailed with a full night room charge over $50 charge now.


I think several people may also be holding onto their rooms in the event that policies change for one reason or another and they won't have to pay the $50 fee.

There's no benefit to cancelling before June 8th and there is a cost - and it's easy to imagine scenarios where between now and then the cost goes away.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #66

Kaledor wrote: I would rather not be in the 0.05%. Having 200,000 people in one spot is like having a petri dish growing bacteria. A break out will happen. My government agency is saying we are staying home until August now.

I love my Gen Con and have attended it since 1979... I would hate to miss one, but my life is more important. Until they have a vaccine or a cure, it is a no go for us.

Cheers,
Ed

there will probably never be a cure

but there could be a vaccine, but even with vaccines you can still catch it. Hell I had chicken box 2 times(yes 2 times) and i had the vaccine
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #67

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Kaledor wrote: I would rather not be in the 0.05%. Having 200,000 people in one spot is like having a petri dish growing bacteria. A break out will happen. My government agency is saying we are staying home until August now.


Just curious what are you referring to having 200,000 people in one spot?
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #68

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Allen John wrote: Given that the virus has killed 0.24% of the population of New York City, this is impossible.


Please explain what you are attempting to say. The population of NYC is about 8.4 million. .24% of that would be about 84k deaths. That is the total deaths for the entire US, so I am not certain what you are saying.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #69

jedibcg wrote:

Allen John wrote: Given that the virus has killed 0.24% of the population of New York City, this is impossible.


Please explain what you are attempting to say. The population of NYC is about 8.4 million. .24% of that would be about 84k deaths. That is the total deaths for the entire US, so I am not certain what you are saying.


Check your math. Its .24% which is about 20,000
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #70

It's extremely difficult to get solid mortality rates in the US, because our testing situation is extremely flawed. It's gotten better, but we're still not testing enough people to see if they currently have it.

Antibody tests are worse. Most of the tests on the market aren't FDA approved, and studies that looked into them found extremely high rates of false positives. The actual number of asymptomatic former infected is going to be lower than what's popping up on those tests.

The actual mortality rate is going to be lower than first reported, because that was the mortality for people sick enough to warrant testing, but it's going to be higher than what you'd get if you looked at the antibody tests to determine your denominator. The actual number will be somewhere in between.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #71

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lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote:

Kaledor wrote: I would rather not be in the 0.05%. Having 200,000 people in one spot is like having a petri dish growing bacteria. A break out will happen. My government agency is saying we are staying home until August now.

I love my Gen Con and have attended it since 1979... I would hate to miss one, but my life is more important. Until they have a vaccine or a cure, it is a no go for us.

Cheers,
Ed

there will probably never be a cure

but there could be a vaccine, but even with vaccines you can still catch it. Hell I had chicken box 2 times(yes 2 times) and i had the vaccine


Laz is right.

Viruses are so much different than bacteria. Bacteria can be killed off in bodies and disappear completely from your body.

Viruses tend to stick around and never leave your body. The virus is contained by your immune system which can be bolstered by a vaccination to help the immune system learn how to fight/contain it. But it is rare that a virus will ever leave your body.

For example: The virus that causes the non-STD cold sores (Herpes) is always in your body when you get it. When it activates in your body you get a cold sore(s). The immune system responds and eventually contains it. The virus then goes back into "hibernation" in an area at the back of the brain until it activates again. Certain medicines help to keep the virus "hibernating" but they aren't fool-proof.

AIDS is the same way.

Bacteria cause an infection/cold/whatever but a virus is actually engineered to take over your body more efficiently. A virus will almost always adapt and mutate so it can take root if a vaccine is developed. Think of a flu shot. Every year or every few years a new vaccine has to be developed to help fight the current flu strain that pops up that year.

Bacteria can mutate, too, but no where near as fast and efficiently as viruses.

Keep in mind I am not a Doctor but have been studying science and reading science magazines since the early-1980s. I am not always correct and am going from hundreds of articles I have read over the decades.

The latest article in this week's Science News actually says studies have now shown that COVID-19 water droplets from someone just talking can float in the air for a few hours before falling to the ground.
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Indiana plan to re-open 10 months 3 weeks ago #72

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Harlax wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Allen John wrote: Given that the virus has killed 0.24% of the population of New York City, this is impossible.


Please explain what you are attempting to say. The population of NYC is about 8.4 million. .24% of that would be about 84k deaths. That is the total deaths for the entire US, so I am not certain what you are saying.


Check your math. Its .24% which is about 20,000

You are correct, dunno howI was getting 84k.
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