TOPIC: NO Legendary Transmute Recipes to be Altered EVER

Jeff - thank you for engaging with us on this!

Giving 6 months notice on a CoA change seems to be a pretty fair compromise.

Having some lower level legendary\ies that are “entry level” would be great to see (functionally they would need to matter, though - AC doesn’t matter past HC in 95% of the dungeons so Tamors would still have limited value unless made part of a newer set (beyond mithral) and counted as 2 items in that manner.)

What was done with welfor’s moving to kilgore’s could be an ongoing thing. I could see TaMor’s mop-hing into something else (the same with SRoEC.)

Just out of curiosity, what is the plan after 2027 with TE's? I heard something about Nuggets. Is the plan to cap them or stop producing them?

Endgame wrote: I feel like there is a fundamental misunderstanding about WHY URs have dropped in price.

It's not because there were bad URs in the set
it's not because URs have been getting worse over time.

It's because 8k auctions are Zero Sum. Every 8k auction on Trent's site (and most of the forum auctions) fund at 7,500.

When I started in 2015, Laz was selling PYPs on the forums for $100
In 2023, PYPs sold for a whole year average of 92.20.

That is very little movement in price over 8 years.

Then what happend in 2024?
The 2k Bonus (Marks of the Tenent were introduced) The 2k bonus item increased in value from $7 to $104.
-This means that other items in the 8k needed to drop in price by a total of $400 because the Tenents were soaking an extra $388 on average in value.

8k Bonus rewards (Path Fragments) doubled in price - from $541 average to $1049 in average.
-This means that the Path Fragments were soaking an extra $508 on average in value from the rest of the auction items.

Safe hold 4 was released. Almost every TG increased in average selling price
-It varies auction by auction, so for 2023 to 2024 let's say TG didn't affect the closing price of auctions. But it also means that the value soaked by Fragments and Tenets didn't affect TG.

The question is, what dropped by $896 on average in auctions to account for the higher prices of tenants and fragments?
-URs dropped in price roughly total $780 per auction. This is where the price drop occurred.

So what happened between 2024 and 2026?
-SH 3, 2, and 1 were released, one of every TG multi years were released. Both of these increased the pressure on trade goods, in particular OE and EB. OE and EB are up 250%, and it looks like both of those TG are going to get more expensive (they have sold for $70 each on Trent's site)
-Path Fragment went up up ANOTHER $500 average
-Rings and Tenants are soaking another $240 average from each auction
-On average, URs dropped $440 per auction - that offsets the increase from the path fragments


So what happens in 2027?
There will be no mulit year transmute
There will be no path fragments
There will be No tenets
there will be a New TE bead

This will completely rebalance auction values even if no changes are implemented. I expect URs will be at or above $100 due to this rebalance.

I would suggest taking no action on transmute recipes until the effect of multi years, path fragments, and tenets being out of the mix is understood. Waiting until Summer 27 is probably the best time to consider making changes.

I'm assuming that whatever $8K auction bonus items end after this year will be replaced by something new, and likely at least as in-demand. $8K auction bonus items have tended over time to increase and not decrease. I'm pretty sure there will be a new multi-year transmute, Jeff was going to start it this year initially before delaying it until next year.

Mike Steele wrote: I'm assuming that whatever $8K auction bonus items end after this year will be replaced by something new, and likely at least as in-demand. $8K auction bonus items have tended over time to increase and not decrease. I'm pretty sure there will be a new multi-year transmute, Jeff was going to start it this year initially before delaying it until next year.

I assume the following:
1) There will be a Multi Year arcanum UR. This will push demand for URs higher
2) There will be a new TE bead. This will push demand for URs higher
2) There will be a 1k reward arcanum transmute of unknown duration. This will keep roughly the same demand as rings.

Importantly, both of those multi year items will not use Trade Goods. This will ease the pressure on TG, meaning UR price will likely need to rise to fill the gap.

3) There will be a 8k reward. Dragon Orbs were dramatically less expensive than Fragments. I can't predict the price of the 8k reward, but I'd bet it's closer to the $500 dragon orb than the $1500 Path fragments.

If I'm accurate with 3, that will yield a UR price closer to 2023 alone compared to 2026.

I thought the charts below might be of interest to this discussion, now that we're into "where does all the money go?" territory.

Back in 2020, URs accounted for almost exactly 50% of the value in an $8k auction. "Premium" items (patron pin, tokens for 8k, 2k, and 1k orders) made up 14%, and trade goods 33%. The rest was stuff like preorder bonuses, guild buttons and the 3* transmutes.

In 2026, URs are 26% compared to almost 46% for "Premium" items. Trade Goods are at ~25%.

In real numbers, URs represent ~$2000 in auction value in 2026 vs. ~$3800 in 2020. Premium items represent ~$3500 (2026) vs. ~$1000 (2020). Trade goods are somewhat stable: $2500 vs $2000.

The TG portion may seem surprising given that OE and EB are so far up, but consider that many other goods are down by 40% or more. Quantity makes a difference here.

Also consider that the patron pin has gone up significantly as well. It's one token, but about $400 in value .

I don’t always agree with Endgame on many things but dang that was a solid post on why UR prices have tanked in the last couple years.

I agree with what Endgame has stated and would implore to consider making the $8000 reward token on the lower (rather than higher) power side to naturally course correct UR prices.

I'm not sure "go back to bad 2k rewards and remove Paragon tokens" will magically raise UR prices. I mean, yes, something has to fill that void, but there's also the potential for "8k orders don't fund".

Endgame wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I'm assuming that whatever $8K auction bonus items end after this year will be replaced by something new, and likely at least as in-demand. $8K auction bonus items have tended over time to increase and not decrease. I'm pretty sure there will be a new multi-year transmute, Jeff was going to start it this year initially before delaying it until next year.

I assume the following:
1) There will be a Multi Year arcanum UR. This will push demand for URs higher
2) There will be a new TE bead. This will push demand for URs higher
2) There will be a 1k reward arcanum transmute of unknown duration. This will keep roughly the same demand as rings.

Importantly, both of those multi year items will not use Trade Goods. This will ease the pressure on TG, meaning UR price will likely need to rise to fill the gap.

3) There will be a 8k reward. Dragon Orbs were dramatically less expensive than Fragments. I can't predict the price of the 8k reward, but I'd bet it's closer to the $500 dragon orb than the $1500 Path fragments.

If I'm accurate with 3, that will yield a UR price closer to 2023 alone compared to 2026.

I'm not sure why you're thinking those three things will all push UR prices higher. Replacing the last year of the current bead with the first year of the last bead could be a wash. Replacing the current Multi Year arcanum with a new one could be a wash. Replacing the current 8k reward with a new one could also be a wash. Sure, they could result in higher UR prices, but they could just as easily lower them further or keep them at the same level.

Mike Steele wrote:

Endgame wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I'm assuming that whatever $8K auction bonus items end after this year will be replaced by something new, and likely at least as in-demand. $8K auction bonus items have tended over time to increase and not decrease. I'm pretty sure there will be a new multi-year transmute, Jeff was going to start it this year initially before delaying it until next year.

I assume the following:
1) There will be a Multi Year arcanum UR. This will push demand for URs higher
2) There will be a new TE bead. This will push demand for URs higher
2) There will be a 1k reward arcanum transmute of unknown duration. This will keep roughly the same demand as rings.

Importantly, both of those multi year items will not use Trade Goods. This will ease the pressure on TG, meaning UR price will likely need to rise to fill the gap.

3) There will be a 8k reward. Dragon Orbs were dramatically less expensive than Fragments. I can't predict the price of the 8k reward, but I'd bet it's closer to the $500 dragon orb than the $1500 Path fragments.

If I'm accurate with 3, that will yield a UR price closer to 2023 alone compared to 2026.

I'm not sure why you're thinking those three things will all push UR prices higher. Replacing the last year of the current bead with the first year of the last bead could be a wash. Replacing the current Multi Year arcanum with a new one could be a wash. Replacing the current 8k reward with a new one could also be a wash. Sure, they could result in higher UR prices, but they could just as easily lower them further or keep them at the same level.

Im thinking along the same lines of Endgame here. My interpretations are:

1) There will be a Multi Year arcanum UR. This will push demand for URs higher
This is going to be the first year of a new multi year path, the first years are generally the highest grossing, this comes from players as well as resellers.
2) There will be a new TE bead. This will push demand for URs higher
This is, like point 1 going to be a huge seller because its the first year of a new TE, literally everyone is going to be buying one of these.
3) There will be a 8k reward. Dragon Orbs were dramatically less expensive than Fragments. I can't predict the price of the 8k reward, but I'd bet it's closer to the $500 dragon orb than the $1500 Path fragments.
My general assumption is that the new Paragon token will not have the "Forged by ???" and will not have a special run or convention dedicated to it. This will drastically reduce the cost of the items.

Alongside of this there will be no push from people to create safehold 1's, sure there will be some TE sink by CoW and Mythic items but I dont believe it will be as bad as what we have this year with all the multi-years.

I would push for a wait until after the next season to make any changes at the earliest. The following is copied off of the tokendb page for the CoA.

Note: This token was originally printed in 2015 as a Relic, but in 2016 it was reclassified as a Legendary. Owners of the Relic version needed to exchange it for the Legendary version before January 1st, 2018. The Relic version is no longer usable in-game and may no longer be exchanged for the Legendary version.

In 2019, a higher-security version was released. Owners of the 2016 version needed to exchange it for the 2019 version before December 1st, 2020 2021. (extended due to COVID) As of Origins 2019, the 2016 version cannot be used in game.

Both of the previous times a change was made to the CoA that would have affected players negatively there was a two year window before the changes went into place. I know several people who were planning on crafting their own charm with the next bead, they have been buying a few pyps every year to get their point totals up. I have not talked about this with them yet since they are not active on the forums but this would absolutely crush them and I honestly don't think they would invest any more money into TD. Maybe consider putting an end date on Recipe 3 top end when the bead is no longer in print. I'm not sure what the answer is but this feels like its breaking the Rule if Cool.

*Edited for my eternally poor grammer and spelling fails.

I doubt it will accomplish much to make certain legendary recipes cheaper as low desire oranges remain low desire oranges until so change recipes that they don't fit the legendary model anymore.

If Vim's only required relic and 40,000 gold, I would absolutely make one and probably do two. But, that's an absurd change from the legendary template.

If TaMor's only required relic and 40,000 gold, I still wouldn't make one. Though, I already own one, so I wouldn't be target audience, anyway.

Jeff Martin wrote: Good question! I appreciate your curiosity. I should have given more info in the first post.

Charm of Avarice - CoA's have gotten too cheap for players to transmute based on historical secondary-market prices. I used these prices back in 2023 when the newest recipe (#3) was created to allow folks with the Amulet of Treasure Finding (and Beads) to use them to make the CoA. Every CoA created is a big liability for TD as some players use them to collect 100's or even 1,000's of treasure pulls in a year. And I hope that TD sticks around for a long time. Therefore, we want to make sure we keep CoA relatively rare. The alternative is just to remove the CoA entirely from the Transmute Program once the final Bead is out next year.

Other Legendaries - The tone of my post was to let folks know we are changing the recipe for the CoA -- and MAYBE other Legendaries. I thought it would be worth taking a look at old Legendaries that were hardly NEVER (or completely never) made due to their low desireability and recipes. TaMor's +4 Mithral Bracers come to mind in this case, and maybe lowering it might be good so newer folks have a way to equip a Legendary. I can run a report to see what Legendaries were rarely made -- if at all, and see what we can do to make them more desireable by reducing the recipe for a 15 year old Legendary. Or, maybe we just leave them as is?

Thank you as always for taking the time to explain the purposes you're driving after.

Jeff Martin wrote: Other Legendaries - The tone of my post was to let folks know we are changing the recipe for the CoA -- and MAYBE other Legendaries. I thought it would be worth taking a look at old Legendaries that were hardly NEVER (or completely never) made due to their low desireability and recipes. TaMor's +4 Mithral Bracers come to mind in this case, and maybe lowering it might be good so newer folks have a way to equip a Legendary. I can run a report to see what Legendaries were rarely made -- if at all, and see what we can do to make them more desireable by reducing the recipe for a 15 year old Legendary. Or, maybe we just leave them as is?

For my money: the reason why these don't get transmuted probably has little to do with the recipe, and more to do with alternative options being better for the slot.

For instance in the case of TaMor's - a lot of people would probably just rather run any of the various +2 rare damage bracers than TaMor's; to say nothing of the various slot expanding options or UR bracers.

I'd go a different direction: to keep the existing undesirable "legendary" tokens feeling "legendary" and desirable:
* Rather than change the recipe to be cheaper
* Change the effect to be better

This would be a welcome surprise to people who happen to have the old ones, and should make them more desirable.

For simplicity, I'd suggest any changes be:

* Limited to things that don't affect the party card, slots, set bonuses, or character level
* This will mean coaches and app builders don't have to know about/think about these changes
* Strictly additional to the printed function

I'm imagining stuff like

TaMor's Mithril Bracers:
* -2 from all damage
Or:
* In addition to its current effects, gains 1/game negate the damage or detrimental effect of any attack to it.

If desired, you could put 1 or 2 of the old legendaries who don't get made anymore into token design each year you want to do this so people could give feedback.