TOPIC: Monster Trophies at Origins - Can we get an official response before Gen Con?

I wrote a long post supporting Arcanist but I give up.

One of the things that frustrates me the most is when people piss down my back and tell me it’s raining.

If you don’t think the situation is an issue, good for you. If you think it’s impossible to correct, I probably agree. But please allow the possibility that there are rational people who feel justifiably upset, and no amount of “let them eat cake” is going to make them feel better about it.

You don’t have to agree with them, and they don’t have to agree with you.

IIRC, Draco-lich Claw Charm went for 100 or less when first released
Icecrag was 125, and that’s with one super-expensive set
If the fact doesn’t bother you that some stores feel that 300 is a fair price for the Bead, and Fred K implies that charge even more if they had less shame, then there’s nothing else to say.

Rob F wrote: Are Bits the only Tokens worth anything in the treasure boxes? That's my take away from this thread. For those so worried about not getting your bits why not just ask Jeff to come up with a certain treasure trade in ratio for them. Turn in X number of pulls and get X number of bits. Or turn in a ton of pulls and get a relic? Why not forget treasure draws altogether and just have a system like this. Would that be fun? The mix may have changed but no where does it say players are guaranteed anything from a treasure pull. It's a chance at something that's it. You might get what you want you might not. And maybe this year you get less of what you wanted. If someone wants a guarantee then I highly suggest selling your pulls every single year and using those funds to buy what you want. Only way you'll be happy with your pulls.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slippery_slope

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: Or I don’t know. Do what I suggested. Trade with new players get them hooked and you can get your missing bits ( if you are missing game any from runs you have not even done yet)

But it’s fine.

All of my number crunching takes into account monster bit swapping as I've used every year to balance out my monster bit sets.

That doesn't change the fact that the distribution this year will require double the number of runs from me in order to get access to the number of bits I need.

Or will require I buy or trade a larger amount of bits from other players, who are likely to value the bits from this year at a higher price that previous years due to the lack of supply.

Both options end up costing me more money out of pocket or more value out of my tradable tokens.

Dave Autzen wrote: Those of us likely not doing ANY runs this year might be plain out of luck then in transmuting the bead.

I have bought 35 draws that I am going to have someone pull for me at Gen Con. So if I am average I will get 3 2019 bits. Have to be lucky to miss duplicates tho.

Being on a limited budget for the foreseeable future means I will like NOT get the 6 bits to make the bead. Not too thrilled with that thought, as +2 to all saves is pretty sweet to have. The same limit means I will likely not get to buy more draws this year.

I guess I will see what kind of luck I have with those pulls.

Dave

I am really sorry to hear about your predicament. It really sucks to be missing True Dungeon for a year and sucks even more to be expecting to miss the tokens you need to make your bead.

I expect I will be able to get at least 2 sets of the 2019 kit at GenCon with my 6 runs.

If you would want to swap out some of your draws for a full set of 2019 bits, to be shipped to you the week after GenCon, I would be happy to swap with you so that you are able to complete your bead.

I don't know what the current value of a treasure draw is today but if you want to do a swap you can send me a PM and we can find an agreeable number of draw tokens.

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: Or I don’t know. Do what I suggested. Trade with new players get them hooked and you can get your missing bits ( if you are missing game any from runs you have not even done yet)

But it’s fine.

+1 to this (and that's speaking as a "new player climbing towards UR level" whose life is apparently being ruined or something by bits).

Dave Autzen wrote: Those of us likely not doing ANY runs this year might be plain out of luck then in transmuting the bead.

I have bought 35 draws that I am going to have someone pull for me at Gen Con. So if I am average I will get 3 2019 bits. Have to be lucky to miss duplicates tho.

Being on a limited budget for the foreseeable future means I will like NOT get the 6 bits to make the bead. Not too thrilled with that thought, as +2 to all saves is pretty sweet to have. The same limit means I will likely not get to buy more draws this year.

I guess I will see what kind of luck I have with those pulls.

Here's hoping you get a completed bead with one of those pulls! It's been know to happen!

gen con has not happened yet
GHC has not happened yet
pAX south has not happened yet

FYI. Kirk had that price before the Origins even started. But nobody paid attention to that

Arcanists math is off because he is making assumptions that are not accurate. the percentage of mb each year have not been equal. So you cannot weight them equally. For 2016 monster bits it was on average about 17%. Actually at GC it was over 17% and the the additional cons brought back to just under 17%. In 2016 we were drawing at max treasure 16 (or 17 for players 6th level or higher). For 2017 it was 18%, again Gen Con was just over 17% but the other cons were higher dragging it up a bit. Max pulls increased to 18 and 19 with the release of the ISSN. 2018 were much higher at 22.5% still drawing 18 and 19. Currently 2019’s are 10.15% (i am guessing that might trend to 11% being half of the 2018’s but i don’t know that). Max draws are 20 and 21. So yes they are half (or less) of 2018’s but they are NOT half of 2016 or 2017.

That means at 5th level it took 1.48 runs to get a set of 2016’s, 1.22 runs to get 2017’s, and .98 of a run to 2018’s. So it took over 3 and half runs to get them. To get 2019’s (at the current origins percent we have) it takes 2.96 runs. It is NOT half the cost based on runs. Granted it is close but since he wanted to use math, i wanted to point out his assumptions that all the years being equal is a false assumption.

In case anyone is curious max treasure year year would have been 2.81 and 3.48 runs. Min treasure would be 19.7 and 21.1

Not arguing that anything should or shouldn’t be done with this post, just providing more accurate data.

lazlo_hollyfeld1985 wrote: gen con has not happened yet
GHC has not happened yet
pAX south has not happened yet

This.

I know the situation has some people upset and in some circumstances it's understandable. I still think the community will adapt and people who really want/need a BoLT will be able to get one. It may just take a little longer than originally planned.

Why area so many people assuming Max treasure when calculating the number of runs required? I'm seeing it over and over again. For a newer group, it's pretty safe to assume at most 2 nuggets if they are working on TE, meaning 7 pulls per run.

Endgame wrote: Why area so many people assuming Max treasure when calculating the number of runs required? I'm seeing it over and over again. For a newer group, it's pretty safe to assume at most 2 nuggets if they are working on TE, meaning 7 pulls per run.

i don’t think any number is safe to assume. I provided max and min. that combinations or too vast to provide them all. i think it would be damn near impossible to figure average. Most is likely 3 or 4.

Possible numbers are 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17,18, 19, 20, 21. Not counting atifacts. You could say 2 is possible if raven gave up her 1 when she only gets three but she still gets 3 initially so I am saying 3