TOPIC: Would it make sense to have pre-made 100 treasure bags at end of dungeon?

Jeff Martin wrote: We will definitely look into having bags of 20 Treasure Tokens at each of the Epilogue stations at Gen Con..and maybe Origins. Allowing folks to pick a bag of 20 tokens out of an opened chest (full of said bags of 20) would be kinda cool -- as it is generally more fun to control your own fate. It would be a bit of a logistics hassle as these bags would not fit into our new Epilogue carts well, but it would probably be worth it at the shows with lots of TE tokens.

Thanks everyone for the suggestions.

Jeff, that's great news! My group will absolutely take advantage of those pre-made 20 token bags. Of course, we would also take advantage of 50 token bags at the epilogue center as well.

jon wrote: How are treasure bags made?

From the finest Corinthian leather.

jon wrote: Will they lesson the chance for players without TE to pull a UR?

No more so than pulling a UR from a treasure box lessens the chance for a bag-opening player to get one.

Great news on the 20-packs! Thanks, Jeff.


Your uncle comes to visit every month. Every time he reaches in his pocket and pulls out two coins. One is a quarter and one is a dime, and RANDOMLY puts one in each hand.

He says pick a hand, and you get what’s there. He’s a cheap SOB...

So here’s the question: do you lessen your chances of getting that juicy quarter by always choosing the right (or left)? It might make you feel better by switching it up, like you’re maxing your chances of being correct, but statistically there is absolutely no difference in how you decide.

TD loot is much more complicated, but it’s the same principle. Choose your loot the way that’s the most fun or least hassle, but assuming the treasure pool is totally randomized and totally fair, there is no strategy that’s going to improve your odds in the long run.

Harlax wrote:

Justice wrote: Speaking as someone with max TE perspective a grab and go bag would be nice. However seeing it from a new players perspective, seeing someone in your adventure walk away big bag of loot compared to a 3-pull would be confusing and aggrivating due to a lack of understanding.

More aggravating than standing in line while you draw 21 treasure out of the box?

The moral of that story is learn to pick pocket and steal his change.

Brad Mortensen wrote: Great news on the 20-packs! Thanks, Jeff.


Your uncle comes to visit every month. Every time he reaches in his pocket and pulls out two coins. One is a quarter and one is a dime, and RANDOMLY puts one in each hand.

He says pick a hand, and you get what’s there. He’s a cheap SOB...

So here’s the question: do you lessen your chances of getting that juicy quarter by always choosing the right (or left)? It might make you feel better by switching it up, like you’re maxing your chances of being correct, but statistically there is absolutely no difference in how you decide.

TD loot is much more complicated, but it’s the same principle. Choose your loot the way that’s the most fun or least hassle, but assuming the treasure pool is totally randomized and totally fair, there is no strategy that’s going to improve your odds in the long run.

Is the human mind capable of randomly putting 1 in each hand?

Brad Mortensen wrote: Great news on the 20-packs! Thanks, Jeff.


Your uncle comes to visit every month. Every time he reaches in his pocket and pulls out two coins. One is a quarter and one is a dime, and RANDOMLY puts one in each hand.

He says pick a hand, and you get what’s there. He’s a cheap SOB...

So here’s the question: do you lessen your chances of getting that juicy quarter by always choosing the right (or left)? It might make you feel better by switching it up, like you’re maxing your chances of being correct, but statistically there is absolutely no difference in how you decide.

TD loot is much more complicated, but it’s the same principle. Choose your loot the way that’s the most fun or least hassle, but assuming the treasure pool is totally randomized and totally fair, there is no strategy that’s going to improve your odds in the long run.

In the words of a famous economist, "in the long run, we are all dead."

Druegar wrote:

jon wrote: How are treasure bags made?

From the finest Corinthian leather..

I thought it was Naga Hide.

Harlax wrote: In the words of a famous economist, "in the long run, we are all dead."

Another way of looking at it: whatever you do to try to increase your odds is just as likely to decrease them.

If you spread them out, your odds of getting the 25k are X. If you draw them all on one day, your odds are 3*X if you chose the right day, but that’s only a 1/3 chance. In other words, it’s still X.

But maybe there are metagame considerations. Maybe Jeff doesn’t want the 25k drawn on day one to keep up the suspense. Or maybe he does, to generate buzz. If he can consciously choose when it appears (I.e. it isn’t random) and if you can read his mind, you can develop a strategy to improve your chances.

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Harlax wrote: In the words of a famous economist, "in the long run, we are all dead."

Another way of looking at it: whatever you do to try to increase your odds is just as likely to decrease them.

If you spread them out, your odds of getting the 25k are X. If you draw them all on one day, your odds are 3*X if you chose the right day, but that’s only a 1/3 chance. In other words, it’s still X.

But maybe there are metagame considerations. Maybe Jeff doesn’t want the 25k drawn on day one to keep up the suspense. Or maybe he does, to generate buzz. If he can consciously choose when it appears (I.e. it isn’t random) and if you can read his mind, you can develop a strategy to improve your chances.

Its been a few years since I have worked epilogue. But when I did, I did not see any discernable effort to grab one bucket over another. Neither did I see a marking of any sort.

I doubt there is any intentional effort to place the very few legendariies or 25K gold bars on any particular day. Seems like too much work.


Then again, if you see the person in line before you draw the 25K gold bar (happened to my son a few years ago) you can be pretty confident that its gone.

Harlax wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Harlax wrote: In the words of a famous economist, "in the long run, we are all dead."

Another way of looking at it: whatever you do to try to increase your odds is just as likely to decrease them.

If you spread them out, your odds of getting the 25k are X. If you draw them all on one day, your odds are 3*X if you chose the right day, but that’s only a 1/3 chance. In other words, it’s still X.

But maybe there are metagame considerations. Maybe Jeff doesn’t want the 25k drawn on day one to keep up the suspense. Or maybe he does, to generate buzz. If he can consciously choose when it appears (I.e. it isn’t random) and if you can read his mind, you can develop a strategy to improve your chances.

Its been a few years since I have worked epilogue. But when I did, I did not see any discernable effort to grab one bucket over another. Neither did I see a marking of any sort.

I doubt there is any intentional effort to place the very few legendariies or 25K gold bars on any particular day. Seems like too much work.


Then again, if you see the person in line before you draw the 25K gold bar (happened to my son a few years ago) you can be pretty confident that its gone.

except that there is not just 1 25k bar. that one is gone but there is at least 1 more in the pool. granted your odds have gone down.

jmartin posted somewhere about the exact composition of the buckets.

X number of legendary or high end tokens.
X + 1-2 next level down
X + 3-4 next level down
X% of monster bits
X% of rares
X% of uncommons.

or something like that formula.

smakdown wrote: jmartin posted somewhere about the exact composition of the buckets.

X number of legendary or high end tokens.
X + 1-2 next level down
X + 3-4 next level down
X% of monster bits
X% of rares
X% of uncommons.

or something like that formula.

He did. But if I recall correctly, the stats collected by Jedi show that those numbers are no longer good.

I think they showed a 1% chance of a UR and recent numbers are much lower than that.