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TOPIC: Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece?

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #217

You do realize the root of all this deflation is the rising treasure cap, right?

In 2007, the most seasoned of TD vets had only played for five years, and we had stamps and a HoP so the pulls were 0 to 9 per run. Today, the cap is a guaranteed 21, and it goes to 23 in 2021. The effect of quadrupling treasure draws overshadows the effect of additional cons, which at least are expanding the player base and increasing demand, albeit with a three-year lag, to mitigate the extra draws.

So yeah, as much as I hate to say it, the only real solutions I can see is dilution of treasure with lots of UCs, and/or jacking up the price of token orders by 25%

Side note: a lot of people justify the larger treasure cap with “it’s fun to draw treasure,” but everyone is always going for the boring 20 or 50 bags... and I don’t blame them. Drawing loot is actually tedious and time-consuming.

"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

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Last edit: by Brad Mortensen.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #218

Brad Mortensen wrote: You do realize the root of all this deflation is the rising treasure cap, right?

In 2007, the most seasoned of TD vets had only played for five years, and we had stamps and a HoP so the pulls were 0 to 9 per run. Today, the cap is a guaranteed 21, and it goes to 23 in 2021. The effect of quadrupling treasure draws overshadows the effect of additional cons, which at least are expanding the player base and increasing demand, albeit with a three-year lag, to mitigate the extra draws.

So yeah, as much as I hate to say it, the only real solutions I can see is dilution of treasure with lots of UCs, and/or jacking up the price of token orders by 25%

Side note: a lot of people justify the larger treasure cap with “it’s fun to draw treasure,” but everyone is always going for the boring 20 or 50 bags... and I don’t blame them. Drawing loot is actually tedious and time-consuming.


I'm definitely in the "fun to get treasure" camp, but I do avoid drawing them one at a time when I can - primarily to avoid holding up the line.

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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #219

Mike Steele wrote: I'm definitely in the "fun to get treasure" camp, but I do avoid drawing them one at a time when I can - primarily to avoid holding up the line.


I’m with you. I’m just saying it’s ironic, folks saying they want to pull more when they don’t really want to pull any, for one reason or another.

I think the fallacy is that people are focusing on bits per pull. Maybe they should be thinking about bits per run.

In 2007, with a treasure mix of 1/3 bits, a two-stamp player with a HoP got 2 bits per run. With 21 pulls and the same mix, a player gets 7. (This year the mix was accidentally lower.) And people wonder why Fleece are cheap?

Maybe bits shouldn’t be in the box at all. Eliminate the current completion tokens and use bits instead: one random bit for normal, two for hardcore, three for NM. I doubt anyone would like that, not even me. Though it would have some pluses.

"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #220

Um...just a point or two to improve “draw efficiency”

1. Create “templates” of each size (3s and 1s) and then a set up a tray of these templates for draws. Each draw puts a token into the token slot. Now the epilogue simply validated pull count establishes template and now no need to observe the “count”

2. With the templates in place now you can have two boxes side by side and allow two at a time increasing throughout 100%

3. Letting the ones without CoA go first is desirable. On the party card some means to mark off who is done is valued instead of down the list in order.

For those who want bags...they too only get yellow chips and the yellows turn in at another place (transmute room) to lower the demand on the 12 minute epilogue timer
Jamie
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Last edit: by Jamie Campbell.

Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #221

I like options 3 (CoA draws last) and 4 (move bags to central location).
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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #222

Jamie Campbell wrote: Um...just a point or two to improve “draw efficiency”

1. Create “templates” of each size (3s and 1s) and then a set up a tray of these templates for draws. Each draw puts a token into the token slot. Now the epilogue simply validated pull count establishes template and now no need to observe the “count”

2. With the templates in place now you can have two boxes side by side and allow two at a time increasing throughout 100%

3. Letting the ones without CoA go first is desirable. On the party card some means to mark off who is done is valued instead of down the list in order.

For those who want bags...they too only get yellow chips and the yellows turn in at another place (transmute room) to lower the demand on the 12 minute epilogue timer


The problem with #4 last year is they kept running out of chips in the epilogue room. We would have liked to have just taken our chips and gotten our treasure pulls in the entry area, but we weren't able to because there weren't any chips for us to take.

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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #223

Matthew Hayward wrote: A GF just sold on eBay for $71.

Looks good - although we still have to absorb all the 2016-18s that will be fleeced in the next year or two.


I don’t have an opinion on the conclusions in this thread, but... FYI - eBay has started collecting sales tax (quite recently at least in my jurisdiction). Just something (7% difference) to factor in to the comparisons in forums vs eBay / Kirks / Trents prices vs previous years.
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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #224

Lequinian wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: A GF just sold on eBay for $71.

Looks good - although we still have to absorb all the 2016-18s that will be fleeced in the next year or two.


I don’t have an opinion on the conclusions in this thread, but... FYI - eBay has started collecting sales tax (quite recently at least in my jurisdiction). Just something (7% difference) to factor in to the comparisons in forums vs eBay / Kirks / Trents prices vs previous years.


Many states now require you to pay sales tax on non-taxed goods purchased online. So, technically there is no price difference unless you’re cheating on your state taxes.

"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #225

The states have required taxes for online purchases for a while, but self reported. I would guess most people don’t and that’s why states have been legislating amazon/eBay/etc to collect on the states behalf.

My point was a $70 eBay GF from 2016 is $70 + shipping, a 2019 $70 eBay GF is $70 + $5 (7% sales tax) + shipping. So in this made up example, the real cost has gone up $0.50 per MB.
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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #226

Jamie Campbell wrote: Um...just a point or two to improve “draw efficiency”

1. Create “templates” of each size (3s and 1s) and then a set up a tray of these templates for draws. Each draw puts a token into the token slot. Now the epilogue simply validated pull count establishes template and now no need to observe the “count”

2. With the templates in place now you can have two boxes side by side and allow two at a time increasing throughout 100%

3. Letting the ones without CoA go first is desirable. On the party card some means to mark off who is done is valued instead of down the list in order.

For those who want bags...they too only get yellow chips and the yellows turn in at another place (transmute room) to lower the demand on the 12 minute epilogue timer


Just one thing and probably could be solved by simply providing treasure tokens,
Many experienced players purchase back to back runs and are often late into the coaching room. Forcing them to wait for other players will create some dissatisfaction.
Please visit my fledgling token store.
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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #227

I like the idea of monster bits as completion rewards for runs. I would recommend have both and the players choose which they want.

In terms of treasure bloat, I had a thought about that. Why not have two treasure draw boxes? The first box is normal, as is, distribution of everything. The second box costs 10 times as many treasure draws as the regular one (i.e. normal 1 treasure = 1 draw, this one would be ~10 treasures = 1 draw). The distribution of rewards in the second box would exclude all uncommon and rare tokens (possibly lower amounts of other less valuable tokens as well). The end goal would be to have the same probability of good rewards but not having to transmute a ton of draws into trade goods for the more expensive box. If people still wanted to do 21 draws, they could but I think a lot of vets would choose 2 draws from the expensive box and 1 draw from the normal one.

Personally, when I'm doing 200+ draws at a con, I would prefer to only have 20 tokens to carry away with most being something interesting/cool rather than the extra 5-10 pounds of stuff that I then have to transmute (if I am lucky at the show, otherwise carrying them home then shipping them back again to have TD then ship to me the end result). The extra steps are wasteful in terms of everyone's time and the natural resources we're consuming to make them happen (and sometimes, a sack of tokens can be really heavy.)

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Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece? 4 years 4 months ago #228

Brad Mortensen wrote: You do realize the root of all this deflation is the rising treasure cap, right?

In 2007, the most seasoned of TD vets had only played for five years, and we had stamps and a HoP so the pulls were 0 to 9 per run. Today, the cap is a guaranteed 21, and it goes to 23 in 2021. The effect of quadrupling treasure draws overshadows the effect of additional cons, which at least are expanding the player base and increasing demand, albeit with a three-year lag, to mitigate the extra draws.


It would be interesting to see what the average number of treasure pulls is for each of the cons. I am only speculating... someone with experience in the epilogue room would know much more about this than me.

You could conjecture that GenCon has the highest # of experienced players, so the # would be highest there. But everything sells out there, so many of us with maxed pulls only get to play a few runs. I'm guessing the average there would be between 6 and 9 pulls per player.

I was a combat DM at PAX West and asked each group who had played before. Less than 5% had played before. TD was sold out there and I'm guessing the average there was about 4 per player.

GHC was far from sold out and there were a good number of us with 21 pulls going on as many runs as we could. I'm guessing the average pulls per player was 10+ there, but with so many unsold tickets , the average per available slot was probably 6-7.

Origins is probably in the sweet spot (for some of us) with the runs getting closer to selling out, but tickets still readily available to us who want a lot of runs. I would guess the average for available slots is over 10 there.

WhosYerCon averaged 18 pulls per player with Chad buying out 90% of the runs... (J/K, but he did buy out a number of the unsold runs and that was great of him!!!)

I've never been to PAX South, but I imagine it is somewhere above PAX West now in average pulls.

Put that all together and my guess is the average # of pulls per wrist band sold is probably still in the 6-8 range. Again, this is just me speculating from observations... no hard facts (except maybe from PAX West). This is probably double from some point 6-8 years ago. Making treasure pulls participation trophies obviously drove the # of pulls up. I truthfully don't think the max pulls affects the average as much as you might think (right now).

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