TOPIC: Fantasy Football 2020

Technically we submit it to a vote but Mike tends to rule quickly so people can make decisions based on the trade unless it is very controversial. The only time there was a debate was the infamous Deandre Hopkins for Patrick Mahomes trade.

This one was a pretty cut and dry in my opinion.

BTW: New Poll up about it.

Lieth Maclaine/Tony McCormick wrote: Technically we submit it to a vote but Mike tends to rule quickly so people can make decisions based on the trade unless it is very controversial. The only time there was a debate was the infamous Deandre Hopkins for Patrick Mahomes trade.

This one was a pretty cut and dry in my opinion.

BTW: New Poll up about it.

"The Mahommes kid vastly overrated and could never throw for 30+ TD's in a season. He isn't even up to the level of Wentz. In a few games teams will have tape on him and he'll be an average to slightly above average QB."

... I admit, I might have been wrong there. Maybe. A little.

Fred

So I am going to take a risk here, I am going to let you all know what I think about players. It might very well backfire upon me, but it might open up some conversation. This year is the craziest of years and not a soul "knows" what is going to happen, and especially in a year such as this one. That being said...

I am starting my own trade sub thread within our league thread. I am going to list my players and what I think they are, and what they are worth. Also I will go through each team and list the players I could be interested in. So here we go.

Also a key

QB1,RB1,WR1,TE1 ect means a starter in our league or one of the best 10 available.
RB2,WR2 means a starter but in that 2nd slot so 11-20 level
FLEX someone that isn't quite an RB2 or WR2 or maybe in some cases a TE1, start-able in the right circumstances.

Now this doesn't mean there are truly 10 RB1s out there right now, there might only be 6 for instance. But those 6 are the RBs you feel super comfortable slotting in that top RB spot and forgetting it regardless of match up or circumstance.


A.Rodgers: He is the last of the true QB1s that doesn't really run much anymore. I think he is in the tier below Jackson, Mahomes and Wilson, those are the only ones he is below. Probably need a High end RB2 or low end WR1 to think about moving him, and besides he is the only QB on my roster at the moment.

J.Robinson Solid to high end RB2. Yeah I know that nobody knew about him, but seriously he looks good on tape and in the stat line. Getting double digit rushes every week, 10 catches on the season and the obviously goal line back. Not sure what his trade value really is because the lack of name recognition will hurt him. Some people have difficulty trading anything substantial for someone they didn't know existed a month ago.

M.Gaskin:Low end RB2. Another who is this guy? Well watching him, he is a between the 20s back that catches passes pretty well. Think maybe a poor man's Austin Ekeler. Again, not completely certain of his value because most haven't seen him play. Obvious lead back except for goal line, steady ceiling/floor kind of player.

Tyreek Hill: High end WR1. I mean who at this point would I think is better than him at WR? Maybe Hopkins ...maybe?... but the best weapon in the best offense in football. Only injuries I think could derail him. He is worthy of a high end RB1

Julio Jones: Low end WR1. Despite my preseason thoughts of him being a top 5 WR, with his hammy being a problem and the increased value of Calvin Ridley I think putting Julio in the next tier of WRs 6-10 is probably more realistic for him at the moment. Can he still finish as a top 3 overall wideout, absolutely. Could his hamstring bother him all year, yes absolutely. He is a slightly distressed asset, with high upside value. Looking for a RB1 but not likely the top of the tier unless it is in a package.

D.Schultz: Borderline TE1, more likely a TE2. His offense throws a lot, and he has been a highly utilized red zone target. The TE position sucks in general, but he can put up points with more than just a prayer. Make an offer I suppose

Josh Kelley: Borderline RB2 to Flex: The defacto "power" back in Los Angles, that has gotten no less than 10 touches a game with Red Zone appeal. He is likely going to get 7-15 points a week for as long as he is healthy unless he hits big with TD luck in any given week. He has value but more to a RB starved team than otherwise.

M.Ingram/JK Dobbins: ??? These guys probably have more value together than apart. If either of the other gets hurt I fully expect the other to get the lion share of the carries on a week to week basis, in a high powered offense. If Ingram got hurt I could see Dobbins as valuable as J.Taylor in Indy, or if Dobbins gets hurt I can see Ingram as a high end RB2. But right now it would be a speculation bet for anyone looking to acquire. Make an offer I suppose

DJ Chark ??? He has been dinged up a bit this season, but when he has suited up has gotten 10 points at least each game. Talent wise probably a low end WR1, production wise, at least a FLEX play. So we can call him an WR2 with wild variance. Probably could be had for an equal level RB or maybe a TE1.

A.Hooper TE2. So far hasn't done much, Baker loves throwing to tight ends and the HC loves using them. So he has upside, but more likely a trade filler at this point.

C.Davis FLEX. He has been doing well without AJ Brown around to soak up targets, will it get easier for him once AJ comes back (less coverage) or harder (fewer targets). Who knows honestly.

L.Bell INJ... Jets look like a train wreck. Talented back I hope that gets traded. He is way better than what the Jets will allow him to be.

Def/K Honestly at this point if I could get the league to eliminate these positions I would be happy to do so. They have such a wide variance of scoring, and they are the most difficult to gauge from week to week. If someone wants one as a throw in either way yeah that's cool. Primary target or attraction to any trade, um no...

Now for opposing teams. I will list the players like so
Highly interested, if you are offering the player I'll listen
Moderately interested, if you want me to trade Hill probably not going to happen, others maybe
Lightly interested, I wouldn't mind having them, but certainly not the target of a trade
If I don't list them, I am not interested at all for one reason or another or I don't think I value them nearly as much you probably do.

Team Dwarven Doppelbock
Highly Interested in Kelce, L.Jackson
Moderate: Kittle, Ertz, Kupp, Adams
Light: Peterson, Sanders

America Springboks
High: A.Jones, K.Murray, C.McCaffrey
Mid: T.McLaurin, A.Robinson
Light:R.Jones

Ahsoka's Squad
High: N.Chubb,P.Mahomes
Mid Diggs, Waller, Evans, Gibson, Allen
Low Boyd

Lieth's Templars
High: Jacobs
Mid Drake
Low None

Team of Terrors
High Elliot
Mid Golladay, Thielen,
Low Beckham

Dark Forest Druids
High: Taylor
Mid Locket (borderline high), D Johnson, J.Smith
Low J.Brown

Scrael Bait
High Wilson, CEH, Ekeler, Hopkins,Metcalf?
Mid Ridley
Low Lamb,Fant

Berserk Browncoats
High:Kamara
Mid: Gordon, Moore, D Johnson, Hunt
Low Singletary, Henry

Colts full Nelson
High: None
Mid Mixon, Allen, Montgomery,Godwin(not sure how bad the inj is)
Low Davis (short term but good)

So that is my list.

Also a note about trades in general since it was asked before. Unless I am directly involved in a trade I will approve or deny a trade almost exclusively (if I am involved I have asked Tony to be the decider since I would have a conflict of interest). I will do so quickly, so the people involved can continue to make trades and informed roster decisions. In all of my years I have to veto exactly one trade.

That being said if I collusion is going on, or if I can't understand for the life of me what one side of the trade is thinking, I could veto a trade. If I find out collusion is happening I reserve the right to toss you from the league.

Why so harsh? Long story short, some nearly 20 years back I got into a league with a friend as a co-owner. It was high priced for me at the time, but I did it. The same 3 coaches seemed to win every season (they loved to talk sh*t too), and I found out why. Other owners in the league would accept the dumbest trades and by week 4 or 5 they would each have super teams. My co owner was offered his share of the league fees back (so his half of the league fees) if he would accept a trade (a very lop sided trade), and if he would throw the 2nd round of the playoffs another time. He didn't tell me about the first instance until the 2nd happened. I am not implying at all I think this group would ever do so, but I didn't think it would happen in that other league either.

After that I started running leagues and vowed I would never let that happen, and that the league would be as fair as I could make it. So far I think I am doing okay, most years I have waiting lists for my leagues, for everyone one that leaves I get 2-3 that want to join (non Covid years at least).

I hope I have addressed your questions, and sorry for the book of a post. Look forward to hearing replies!

Mike, I actually like your in depth thoughts about your team and who you are interested in. I might do something similar. Obviously I disagree with some but that is why we play the game. More in depth thoughts after I think about the post but I wanted to give you some base feedback quickly. More feedback later.

Thanks Tony, also Fred, I see you quoted me but didn't add anything... just fyi

I wpuld very mich disagree with the ratings (as would ESPn’s ratings, etc.). 2 of my RBs are rated in the top 10 as are 2 of my wr’s. Now, I can’t seem to get them on the field for the same week. Hopefully, that will change.

There are some positions where if the players isn’t top 3 or 4, they are equal to the waiver wire or you could stream from waivers based on match ups. Rogers is currently qb6. That means, on average, a 1.4 point per game difference versus the waiver wire based on last year’s season totals. Kickers are the same except for 1-2. tE below the top 3, waivers are equivalent (with Kelce being in his own class.)

You can’t stream RBs very effectively as there is an average of 8 points for a top 10 rb and waivers. Rb2 versus waiver is about 4 points. Wr1 is about 4 points over waivers and wr2 is equal to waivers (based on match ups.)

End of season schedule matters. This site gives best match ups by position based on schedule...

fftoolbox.fulltimefantasy.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm

Sometimes you have an abundance of riches that you can’t use. Dwarves, you come to mind there. You have 2 top 5 TEs and another top 10 TE. That means points left on the bench every week. Arguably by 2 players. Kelce is the starter no question but will kittle be a better streamer than a wr2? Erntz (or anyone but Kelce) likely won’t. That gives you useful trade resources to improve other positions,

Our league also over-values defneses by counting some stats twice. That is how we get 20 point performances that are 10-12 elsewhere. A top 3 defense is as big as a WR1 in this league (why I picked up both SF and Pit),

The reality is you should trade based on realistic expected value. Use sites like fantasypros, etc to get relative season points values. Then compare that to where you are weakest. A 3 point per game difference can change your season.

At the same time, don’t let yourself fall too far behind. If you are 0-4, dramtic changes may be needed but they have to increase your points or they don’t matter.

Last recommendation, trade for players you like to watch. Itabout having fun, after all.

Fred

Quick note on Ertz - my plan was to run Kelce and Kittle with Ertz as the either trade bait or fill in replacement for Covid / injuries... and then Kittle went down week one, along with something like 4 of my RBs, so Ertz suddenly became a weekly starter for me.

I'm generally not big on trades as you're either rearranging deck chairs on the titanic, or you're risking regretting the trade the rest of the season. Ex - years and years ago, I traded Peyton Manning and a WR for Daunte Culpepper and a RB in, like, week 3. In week 6(ish) Culpepper tore his ACL leaving me streaming waiver wire QBs while my opponent racked up the wins with manning.

Tony's reaction to Mike's ranking of his players

Rodgers - You are right he is a QB1 but I think Father Time is approaching for him AND the packers are wanting to focus on the run game more as an organization. You are ranking him at 4 and I personally think of him at about 8. I am right now doing a Big Ben/Burrow combo which I think is about equal but I freely admit may be wrong on my part.

Robinson/Gaskin - Agree completely with your analysis here. I would not be trading to get either of them but I am set at RB. I certainly wouldn't object to either of them being included in a trade to balance it.

Hill - I would add a healthy Adams is better at WR but saying that proves your point. High WR1 certainly.

Jones - Ridley is cutting into his numbers badly. Also the Falcons as a whole are having issues. Probably still a low end WR1 but he is falling.

D. Schultz - I rate him as TE2 since Dallas has so many weapons that if he starts to really get enough traction to register on defenses, Dallas can throw to Lamb in a heartbeat which is a similar role.

Kelley - Agree, I don't see the rest of the Chargers offense to give him enough Red Zone opportunities to break out.

Ingram/Doggins - Agree with you. Ugly situation for fantasy at the present time.

Chark - I actually think Robinson's success is hurting Chark because the Jacksonville run game is working. Agree with the WR2.

Hooper - Better than the Browns deserve but you are right, right now a TE2

Davis - I think he gets fewer targets when Brown gets back.

Bell - That is Karma coming back to bite him. As long as Gase is HC and Bell is a Jet, Bell is going nowhere. Until something changes............

Fred K wrote: Last recommendation, trade for players you like to watch. Itabout having fun, after all.

Fred

agreed

Tony's ranking of his players

QB - Big Ben/Burrows - Not a happy situation but serviceable I think. Combined they may make a low end QB 1, I don't think either of them is a QB 1 by themselves. Given the chaos of this year I will probably be keeping 2 QB's on my roster so this is what I have. Very open to trades involving them but it would probably involve me upgradeing this position.
RB - Cook/Jacobs/Drake/Freeman - Extremely happy with this situation. Cook and Jacobs are certainly both RB 1's. Cook would be even higher if Kirky stopped throwing interceptions. Jacobs has a very nice floor, especially since I have Cook ahead of him so he is in my second spot. Drake is right now happy in my flex and hasn't been what I expected so far but he is good in my flex. We will see how he does again Carolina. Drake is certainly open for Trades. Freeman is certain trade bait. I think he will become lead back for the Giants in a couple of weeks. What the lead back for the Giants is worth is up for debate and why we play the game. Open to offers for Drake and Freeman. Will listen to offers for Cook and Jacobs but they would be expensive.

WR - Thomas/Anderson/Crowder/Gallup/Hilton - The Thomas injury has hurt me but I am hoping that we are finally thru it. Brees is also a concern with Thomas. Low End WR1 right now but the eye test may change that in either direction quickly once he comes back. Anderson has been a pleasant surprise and I am ranking him WR2 even though he has WR1 numbers so far. Crowder is also showing good numbers when he is healthy. The healthy is a very big caveat I admit. That is making him ranked as low end WR2. Gallup is a WR3 until someone else gets injured, Dallas just has too many weapons right now for Gallup to live up to his talent. At draft time, I underestimated how much Lamb would be used by the Dallas offense. Hilton is playing bad and unless something changes soon...... Very open to trades in this group.

TE - Gesicki/Engram - Gesicki is a Miami WR which makes him a TE1. Engram should be higher than TE2 but Giants. Shrug. Open to talking about about trading either one.

Edit - After week 4 games, reevaluating Jacobs/Drake/Gallup downward in my personal opinion.

when I get a chance I'll reply to your post Tony... Real quick takes

Freeman is probably not going to be good because well the Giants suck
Drake it is looking more and more like his end of 2019 was the fluke not the other way around
Anderson is playing great, Crowder is the only jet worth owning... Thomas meh
The qbs I would not be happy with, but streaming qbs is a fine strategy and can work really well. I just don't like those two guys at least for this year.

Mike Coon wrote: when I get a chance I'll reply to your post Tony... Real quick takes

Freeman is probably not going to be good because well the Giants suck
Drake it is looking more and more like his end of 2019 was the fluke not the other way around
Anderson is playing great, Crowder is the only jet worth owning... Thomas meh
The qbs I would not be happy with, but streaming qbs is a fine strategy and can work really well. I just don't like those two guys at least for this year.

Sadly for my prospects this year, you are probably right. Freeman does play against Dallas twice though.