TOPIC: Relative Value of Trade Goods for 2023

i transmuted for several oranges this year. while it didn't wipe me out. it did hit my stash of trade items hard; 5-600 maybe.

And yet every year the amount of trade goods in recipes keeps getting higher.

Grizwald wrote: And yet every year the amount of trade goods in recipes keeps getting higher.

That's because the market value of the goods keeps dropping. The amount needed may go up, but your paying less for the goods.

Rob F wrote:

Grizwald wrote: And yet every year the amount of trade goods in recipes keeps getting higher.

That's because the market value of the goods keeps dropping. The amount needed may go up, but your paying less for the goods.

That only applies to people who BUY trade goods. If you only gather them the same as pre-8k-auction years, they still cost the same as always...AND are worth less (both for transmuting and resale).

As for why I'm not buying cheap goods to make maps? I don't trust transmutes any more. TD has run out of transmutes more regularly the past few years, and made it clear that non-legendaries are 'while supplies last'. I will continue with the multi-year items I've started, and maybe future big items that I expect will be well stocked, but I'm just going to buy most things on the secondary market from now on.

kurtreznor wrote: That only applies to people who BUY trade goods. If you only gather them the same as pre-8k-auction years, they still cost the same as always...AND are worth less (both for transmuting and resale).

As for why I'm not buying cheap goods to make maps? I don't trust transmutes any more. TD has run out of transmutes more regularly the past few years, and made it clear that non-legendaries are 'while supplies last'. I will continue with the multi-year items I've started, and maybe future big items that I expect will be well stocked, but I'm just going to buy most things on the secondary market from now on.

Charm of Avarice is also out of stock for an undisclosed amount of time so even some legendary are affected.

kurtreznor wrote:

Rob F wrote:

Grizwald wrote: And yet every year the amount of trade goods in recipes keeps getting higher.

That's because the market value of the goods keeps dropping. The amount needed may go up, but your paying less for the goods.

That only applies to people who BUY trade goods. If you only gather them the same as pre-8k-auction years, they still cost the same as always...AND are worth less (both for transmuting and resale).

As for why I'm not buying cheap goods to make maps? I don't trust transmutes any more. TD has run out of transmutes more regularly the past few years, and made it clear that non-legendaries are 'while supplies last'. I will continue with the multi-year items I've started, and maybe future big items that I expect will be well stocked, but I'm just going to buy most things on the secondary market from now on.

I also think it's possible that the maps might sell out quickly, as the previous ones did. I'm a bit surprised TD didn't make the recipes more expensive, to align them more with market value. By setting the ingredients well under market value for treasure pulls, it seems to encourage more shenanigans by people to get around the 5 per month limit and maximize the amount of maps they can transmute. Perhaps it was done to try to drive up Trade Item values, but that doesn't seem to be happening so far.

My assumption is that TPTB are still trying to find the sweet spot on the recipes for the maps, which is why they're making them one year recipes and stocking limited numbers of them. I would expect they hope to find the spot where people are making them at a pace that has them run out around the end of September.

Again, all speculation on my part

Well if it was in line with market price wouldn’t it be a waste of time to transmute them instead of just buying 2 10x pulls?

TheFishGod23 wrote: Well if it was in line with market price wouldn’t it be a waste of time to transmute them instead of just buying 2 10x pulls?

If someone has excess Trade Item tokens, I think they'd still be better off trading them for Maps than keeping them and paying for 20 treasure pulls.

Plus, I'd be OK if they were a bit below market prices. I think current valuations might have them around 50% - 100% below market price, which seems too low to me and might cause another frenzy to transmute like last year. I do recall Aragonite values got a little bounce when this recipe was announced, but that seems to have gone away.

I think an interesting question would be what the expected output of 20 treasure draws is.

(TLDR- this might be caused by treasure draws being overvalued)

I agree that a map can be made for $45. I also agree that treasure draws tend to sell for around $3-4 so a map should be worth $60-80. Is 20 treasure draws likely to result in $60-80 in “value” on average? Or is cashing in a map more of a lottery ticket?

If using a map results in less value then the cost to create one, then the maps (in the aggregate) are effectively removing “value” from the trade good economy which helps fight trade good inflation.

That’s not to say using maps is wrong or dumb. Some people get joy from pulling treasure, just like opening packs of cards or loot boxes) but it might explain this seeming market inefficiency.

If you don’t want the treasure pulls yourself, you have to go through the hassle of trading/selling the maps to some who wants to buy them.

I am in that “get joy from pulling treasure” camp. I hope to someday pull a legendary though I know the odds are very against that. But pulling something like a Wish Ring, 25K bar, or even a relic would be amazing. Again, I know the odds are long but it’s the thrill of it. Almost like gambling, but you are certain to end up with something, even it is just destined to be turned into a trade good.

Dave Autzen wrote: I am in that “get joy from pulling treasure” camp. I hope to someday pull a legendary though I know the odds are very against that. But pulling something like a Wish Ring, 25K bar, or even a relic would be amazing. Again, I know the odds are long but it’s the thrill of it. Almost like gambling, but you are certain to end up with something, even it is just destined to be turned into a trade good.

Given the map cost, you're better to directly buy a $185 wish ring or a $300 25k bar over spending money buying maps and crossing fingers, right?