TOPIC: Thoughts on 2020 Rare Prices?

Speaking for myself, I am getting much more of my order in ultra-condensed than I did in years past (and I think this is only the 2nd year of Ultra Condensed existing).

It makes me wonder if this might contribute to higher values on the secondary market for chase 2020 Rare tokens like:

+1 Assassin's Blade
Amulet of Vigor
Boots of Shocking Step
Ioun Stone Tourmaline Tear

?

There are a few other pretty good items but class limits will hinder their demand a lot (like the new +1 Claymore which I think might be the best 2 hander at rare now).

I had that thought as well. That being said, my impression might be a bit biased by the large number of 8k auctions, which seem to have come to an unspoken consensus that super condensed is the way to go.

I suppose we don't really have a good way to gauge how many 8k orders were made among small groups or individual big-time buyers compared to previous years, since they wouldn't be represented on the forums.

I suspect there's too many unknowns to do a solid prediction.

How does the changing number of super condensed compare to the changing number of overall pre-orders, growth in token-buyers in general, the transition of those buyers from UC to R to UR+, and increased counts due to increases in treasure pulls.

It might be that the shift to more super condensed orders simply cancels out with the impacts of the other numbers. Or it could be that those impacts are even greater.

I agree. too many variables. however, one fact...
before super condensed, the buyers of 8K had the option to set aside all the copies of the "really interesting rares"...for example, Bracers of the Asp or Charm of Enlightenment before doing the mulching...so the market now MAY have fewer opportunities to see the interesting items on the market. However, that is only if the number of 8Ks sold were constant and I need to believe that more 8Ks are sold now than they were in 2014 when both of those items were in the stacks...what is needed is number of non-condensed 8Ks in 2019 versus 2014...

I actually theorize that the Onyx C/U/R will be much more valuable as time keeps ticking by because they will be the real chance to get these "interesting" tokens that were not mulched with the rest.

Further note, the condensed versus super condensed does help this some...getting the 120 and 240 rares and uncommons per 1K...

Just a bit over what the token contributes to a trade good. Rare weapon maybe $1.25 max and the others possibly $0.25 each is where the pricing should settle. Given the increased in trade goods the prices should have a downward turn in about a year after release.

Transmute ingredients may see a spike in price until October of 2020.

Potion of bringing ya back from the dead will have a premium.