TOPIC: 2nd Tooth of Cavadar - Why is it so rare?

Fred K wrote: Because of the prevalence of $8k auctions now, the special items tied to them are much more common. The teeth are attached to $1K orders but when we see the number of auctions (representing 8 $1k's) more than double in two consecutive years (2017 to 2018), we go from these items being rare to common. So, back in 2016, a handful of bigger buyers (stores, primarily) cutting back would impact the market.

My guess is we've seen the total number of $8K orders more than double overall since 2016 if not triple.

If the RoSP are an indicator of how many $8K orders are done each year, I know the numbering goes well above 200 (though - the number everyone got was drawn at random, I can't say as to if close to all the numbers were drawn). The Origins Patron event had 60 slots and all but 1 of those sold out and that wouldn't represent all the individual buyers since not everyone goes to Origins. My best guess is there are 80-100 individuals who do orders of at least $8K and a small subset of those do 5+ of those. It used to be a handful of people would do more than 1 $8K but there are probably 15-20 now due to auctions.

It does make me wonder how much money TD loses in $250 PYP orders where people chose to do a PYP purchase from an $8K auction for $110 rather than put in the bigger order. That's a tangent away from your original question, though

Fred

The assumption that TD looses anything is predicated on the idea that someone who has $110 to spend on a PYP could drop $250 just as easily. Or that a person who could drop $250 wouldn't still drop $250 and just prefer to spend it on 2 $110 PYP slots and $30 of Rares. Personally I have a yearly budget, that doesn't change, only how I allocate it does.

Noodlin' around here: Back at the start of the teeth, people were scrambling to find Rod Seg 1, which was selling for high prices. This could have been fresh in people's minds, and I wonder if people bought into Tooth 1 to make sure they were covered for the tooth combo.

WaterSomePlants wrote: Noodlin' around here: Back at the start of the teeth, people were scrambling to find Rod Seg 1, which was selling for high prices. This could have been fresh in people's minds, and I wonder if people bought into Tooth 1 to make sure they were covered for the tooth combo.

Frank, you're probably right, I think the same thing happened with Kilt of Tavernbane.

As I recall after the flurry of people looking for seg 1, there was also an echo of people looking for seg 2. At least a few mitheral coins of fate were blown on seg 2, just saying.

Re the kilts, it probably also helps it was a 3 year transmute.

Picc wrote:

Fred K wrote: Because of the prevalence of $8k auctions now, the special items tied to them are much more common. The teeth are attached to $1K orders but when we see the number of auctions (representing 8 $1k's) more than double in two consecutive years (2017 to 2018), we go from these items being rare to common. So, back in 2016, a handful of bigger buyers (stores, primarily) cutting back would impact the market.

My guess is we've seen the total number of $8K orders more than double overall since 2016 if not triple.

If the RoSP are an indicator of how many $8K orders are done each year, I know the numbering goes well above 200 (though - the number everyone got was drawn at random, I can't say as to if close to all the numbers were drawn). The Origins Patron event had 60 slots and all but 1 of those sold out and that wouldn't represent all the individual buyers since not everyone goes to Origins. My best guess is there are 80-100 individuals who do orders of at least $8K and a small subset of those do 5+ of those. It used to be a handful of people would do more than 1 $8K but there are probably 15-20 now due to auctions.

It does make me wonder how much money TD loses in $250 PYP orders where people chose to do a PYP purchase from an $8K auction for $110 rather than put in the bigger order. That's a tangent away from your original question, though

Fred

The assumption that TD looses anything is predicated on the idea that someone who has $110 to spend on a PYP could drop $250 just as easily. Or that a person who could drop $250 wouldn't still drop $250 and just prefer to spend it on 2 $110 PYP slots and $30 of Rares. Personally I have a yearly budget, that doesn't change, only how I allocate it does.

I don't do my own orders anymore I pool with others in auctions or preorders it just makes more sense for me these days and I have a lot less to transmute.

Despite what a few others have said, I recall the same thing happened with RoSP. I had segments 3-7 and was debating buying 1 & 2 from Laz at WYC. He told me at the time that segment 2 was harder to get than segment 1. That fact stuck with me because it struck me as odd then.

I imagine some people overspent in 2015 knowing the 1st tooth would be in demand, and that cut into how much they could spend in 2016. I went $8K in 2017 and am still paying that off... so I have spent less in the following years.

I paid slightly more for Rod segment 1 than 2 when I bought them but they were BOTH very rare by year 7. I expect we will see the prices for both 1 and 2 climbing up to 750+ each before the teeth are done.

I tend to order 2k in tokens and order additional PYP each year. I enjoy opening packs and getting random free UR tokens.

On years where I want less than 12 UR tokens I may just make a 3k order myself and not do PYP. So in that respect there is a slight variance in how much $ TD gets from me directly. BUT it doesn't change the overall total since my early buys take up the PYP space of whoever I buy from

After this year, only one more tooth to go. 7th Tooth of Cavadar in 2021, right?
What are people using as the initial unlock of psychic potential?

Before the new Arcanum shirt, I had been tempted by the Dark Disciple’s Shirt for unlocking psychic power... that +1 psi use seems like it could be handy. And the Semi-Lich Skull would be a no brainer, if I wasn't doing the 7 part Tooth combo...

WaterSomePlants wrote: After this year, only one more tooth to go. 7th Tooth of Cavadar in 2021, right?
What are people using as the initial unlock of psychic potential?

Before the new Arcanum shirt, I had been tempted by the Dark Disciple’s Shirt for unlocking psychic power... that +1 psi use seems like it could be handy. And the Semi-Lich Skull would be a no brainer, if I wasn't doing the 7 part Tooth combo...

I didn't buy any initial unlock token, just stockpiling them until we have the completed teeth.

Mike Steele wrote:

WaterSomePlants wrote: After this year, only one more tooth to go. 7th Tooth of Cavadar in 2021, right?
What are people using as the initial unlock of psychic potential?

Before the new Arcanum shirt, I had been tempted by the Dark Disciple’s Shirt for unlocking psychic power... that +1 psi use seems like it could be handy. And the Semi-Lich Skull would be a no brainer, if I wasn't doing the 7 part Tooth combo...

I didn't buy any initial unlock token, just stockpiling them until we have the completed teeth.

Rare neck here. Though the skull is tempting this year.

Mike Steele wrote:

WaterSomePlants wrote: After this year, only one more tooth to go. 7th Tooth of Cavadar in 2021, right?
What are people using as the initial unlock of psychic potential?

Before the new Arcanum shirt, I had been tempted by the Dark Disciple’s Shirt for unlocking psychic power... that +1 psi use seems like it could be handy. And the Semi-Lich Skull would be a no brainer, if I wasn't doing the 7 part Tooth combo...

I didn't buy any initial unlock token, just stockpiling them until we have the completed teeth.

Ditto.

Like MTG
It’s the Beta Lotus
Thats worth the big bucks.