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TOPIC: Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints

Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #25

kurtreznor wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

jedibcg wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: I think Jedi is looking for TPTB to formally state whether or not any future reprints of URs for recipes will be allowed in the recipe.

The reason for the question is it would be a shame if:

a. People lobbied to reprint UR X with the intention of using it in a transmute recipe.
b. UR X is reprinted, and people buy it with the intention of using it in a transmute recipe.
c. It is discovered that the reprint of UR X is not eligible for the recipe.

This would be a waste of a UR slot, and a regrettable purchase.

For my money, the answer should be 'yes.'


In general I also think it should be yes. The only hesitation is Ring of Riches and Charm of Good Fortune. I can understand, if they are ever reprinted, that TD might not want the CoA floodgates opened again.

That is a different situation than most Legendary tokens. For other Legendary tokens, you'd need the Relic in addition to the reprinted UR. For the CoA, just reprinting the RoR or CoGF and allowing it in the recipe would allow people to transmute as many as they wanted.


if folks want to buy UR’s why would TD care? how is that different than when aotf was printed? granted they would need to make the reprints 1 pt like aotf.


I suspect TD underestimated both how many CoA would be made and how much they would be passed around. It's possible TD may not want to open that CoA floodgate again. I don't know one way or the other, but I could understand if they didn't.


Allowing more CoA again would have a much smaller impact than a new treasure legendary.

Unless the new treasure legendary did not stack with coa and used the neck slot. At that point it would probably only be made by people who didn't have coa

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Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #26

Endgame wrote: ...Unless the new treasure legendary did not stack with coa and used the neck slot. At that point it would probably only be made by people who didn't have coa


Agreed. I believe another non-stacking +13 TC LTE would have some impact on logistics (TD has to haul more buckets of loot), but little if any effect on farming and the economy. Each new Nugget is the opposite. If it does stack, everyone will make one, then complain as the loot becomes mostly uncommons. See “Prisoners Dilemma”

"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

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Last edit: by Brad Mortensen.

Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #27

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Endgame wrote: ...Unless the new treasure legendary did not stack with coa and used the neck slot. At that point it would probably only be made by people who didn't have coa


Agreed. I believe another non-stacking +13 TC LTE would have some impact on logistics (TD has to haul more buckets of loot), but little if any effect on farming and the economy. Each new Nugget is the opposite. If it does stack, everyone will make one, then complain as the loot becomes mostly uncommons. See “Prisoners Dilemma”


I'm not sure why a new non-stackable +13 TE Transmute wouldn't have an effect on farming. Even though the total amount possible wouldn't go up, if there are more +13 treasure chip Transmutes in circulation (whether a CoA reprint or something new which didn't stack), that is more people that have enough TE tokens to enable/encourage farming and loaning out of TE Legendary tokens.

There's no guarantee that the new transmute will be +13 chips, whether it stacks or not. I think we'll get a pretty good indication of whether the transmute will be stacking when the 2023 UR TE is announced. If it is a new token and stackable, it seems pretty certain the transmute will be as well (otherwise why do the transmute if it will result in a loss of max chips). It's all pure speculation until then, unless Jeff provides additional info before then.

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Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #28

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Endgame wrote: ...Unless the new treasure legendary did not stack with coa and used the neck slot. At that point it would probably only be made by people who didn't have coa


Agreed. I believe another non-stacking +13 TC LTE would have some impact on logistics (TD has to haul more buckets of loot), but little if any effect on farming and the economy. Each new Nugget is the opposite. If it does stack, everyone will make one, then complain as the loot becomes mostly uncommons. See “Prisoners Dilemma”


I think you just said, if people are allowed to draw more statistically average that they will whine, and that is the prisoners dilemma. All things unchanged, more pulls just means a higher likelihood of a statistically representative reward. Statistically I’m pretty sure uncommons rule, but I don’t create the treasure chests. I would assume good intentions and believe that True Adventures, as the pool gets larger, continues to make the treasure of equal value for similar events.

Por ejemplo: gencon primary event pulls, gencon secondary event pulls in sealed event and lower price to enter should be different.

If you run gencon primary event, with 100 pulls, you are only garranteed to take a long time pulling treasure. If you run a sealed event and those have 5 pulls from a special treasure box, you probably won’t get a relic but you will still get 5 pulls. If you run a gencon primary event with two iounstone you will get 7 pulls, similar pull chances as the 100, smaller likelihood because you’re pulling fewer. More pulls is only just that, unless TPTB decide they need to dilute the boxes which I would bet they have never done and a statistical anomaly made a spreadsheet look bad in 2018.
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Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #29

Current analysis is that farming earns a slight profit.

Give more people CoAs, and maybe a few more people will farm. Slight effect.

But, let people wear the equivalent of two CoAs at once, and suddenly farming is WAY profitable, even without ghosting.

More tickets soaked up by farmers is fewer tickets for newbies. Major effect.

There are only a few potential results:
A. Raise ticket prices to make farming less profitable
B. Dilute treasure with more uncommons to make farming less profitable
C. Stop raising the cap to keep farming less profitable
D. Chase away newbies who can’t compete with farmers for tickets

Maybe there’s a fifth I don’t see. Regardless, you have to pick one. Thinking we can carry on without at least one of these happening is denying human nature and the laws of economics, which is kind of the same thing.

"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

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Last edit: by Brad Mortensen.

Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #30

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macXdmg wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Endgame wrote: ...Unless the new treasure legendary did not stack with coa and used the neck slot. At that point it would probably only be made by people who didn't have coa


Agreed. I believe another non-stacking +13 TC LTE would have some impact on logistics (TD has to haul more buckets of loot), but little if any effect on farming and the economy. Each new Nugget is the opposite. If it does stack, everyone will make one, then complain as the loot becomes mostly uncommons. See “Prisoners Dilemma”


I think you just said, if people are allowed to draw more statistically average that they will whine, and that is the prisoners dilemma. All things unchanged, more pulls just means a higher likelihood of a statistically representative reward. Statistically I’m pretty sure uncommons rule, but I don’t create the treasure chests. I would assume good intentions and believe that True Adventures, as the pool gets larger, continues to make the treasure of equal value for similar events.

Por ejemplo: gencon primary event pulls, gencon secondary event pulls in sealed event and lower price to enter should be different.

If you run gencon primary event, with 100 pulls, you are only garranteed to take a long time pulling treasure. If you run a sealed event and those have 5 pulls from a special treasure box, you probably won’t get a relic but you will still get 5 pulls. If you run a gencon primary event with two iounstone you will get 7 pulls, similar pull chances as the 100, smaller likelihood because you’re pulling fewer. More pulls is only just that, unless TPTB decide they need to dilute the boxes which I would bet they have never done and a statistical anomaly made a spreadsheet look bad in 2018.

We actaully have a fair amount of data for pulls over the last several years. Someone much smarter than me said that the numbers we have are enough to have better than a pretty good idea of what makes up the treasure boxes (besides very rare things like dragon orbs).
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Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #31

Brad Mortensen wrote: Current analysis is that farming earns a slight profit.


I do not believe this has been satisfactorily established.

I can not imagine turning a profit with my Gen Con pulls unless I got very lucky with pulls.

I mean actually, practically, in the real world turning a profit, not an approximation that begins with "well - treasure pulls are worth about $4..."

A real world profitability analysis must also account for the travel and expenses of getting to the con and maintaining yourself while there, the expenses of eBay/payment processor fees, the expense of shipping supplies, and include the time it takes to market and sell the tokens when computing a rate per hour for profit.


I am _not_ disputing that more treasure pulls is correlated with more ticket sales, especially among token-a-holics. Nor am I disputing that acquiring treasure may be a primary motivation for some people. I'm just disputing that it is clear that one can reliably earn a profit from engaging in this behavior.

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.

Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #32

Brad Mortensen wrote: Current analysis is that farming earns a slight profit.

Give more people CoAs, and maybe a few more people will farm. Slight effect.

But, let people wear the equivalent of two CoAs at once, and suddenly farming is WAY profitable, even without ghosting.

More tickets soaked up by farmers is fewer tickets for newbies. Major effect.

There are only a few potential results:
A. Raise ticket prices to make farming less profitable
B. Dilute treasure with more uncommons to make farming less profitable
C. Stop raising the cap to keep farming less profitable
D. Chase away newbies who can’t compete with farmers for tickets

Maybe there’s a fifth I don’t see. Regardless, you have to pick one. Thinking we can carry on without at least one of these happening is denying human nature and the laws of economics, which is kind of the same thing.

5th option - don’t allow players to loan out TEs and require players borrowing TEs to give up part of there loot. (Loaning is still fine of your tokens if you are on that run)
Also reduces ghost to 2 max per run (I would say 0 but I have been left suck with a ticket and seen people left stuck with a ticket so having up to 2 ghost seems reasonable)
I think this would knee cap farming and is the route I think is the best if TD feels this is a problem that needs solved.

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Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #33

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: Current analysis is that farming earns a slight profit.


I do not believe this has been satisfactorily established.

I can not imagine turning a profit with my Gen Con pulls unless I got very lucky with pulls.

I mean actually, practically, in the real world turning a profit, not an approximation that begins with "well - treasure pulls are worth about $4..."

A real world profitability analysis must also account for the travel and expenses of getting to the con and maintaining yourself while there, the expenses of eBay/payment processor fees, the expense of shipping supplies, and include the time it takes to market and sell the tokens when computing a rate per hour for profit.


I’m not trying to build a business case with to-the-penny estimates. It’s impossible anyway. I’m trying to show that another stackable LTE is inviting catastrophe.

To answer your points:
No one can (yet) make a profit by going to a convention solely for farming. Thus travel, hotel etc are sunk costs and may be ignored. They aren’t a factor for locals anyway.

A lot is traded on the forums or in person for zero fees. It’s too variable. And most sellers charge extra for postage. “About $4” may be unsatisfying but it’s an estimate. Pick another number if you want. It doesn’t negate the principle I’m discussing. It only moves the crisis point forward or backwards in time a couple of years.

I think a ROM estimate is perfectly satisfactory to determine whether or not there’s a problem on the horizon. If you want to do calculations to prove we’re one Nugget over or under break-even, you’re more than welcome, but it totally misses my point.

Be sure to work it out with five ghosts and a 36 TC loot cap, because that’s the scenario I specifically called out.

"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

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Last edit: by Brad Mortensen.

Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #34

Brad Mortensen wrote: Current analysis is that farming earns a slight profit.

Give more people CoAs, and maybe a few more people will farm. Slight effect.

But, let people wear the equivalent of two CoAs at once, and suddenly farming is WAY profitable, even without ghosting.

More tickets soaked up by farmers is fewer tickets for newbies. Major effect.

There are only a few potential results:
A. Raise ticket prices to make farming less profitable
B. Dilute treasure with more uncommons to make farming less profitable
C. Stop raising the cap to keep farming less profitable
D. Chase away newbies who can’t compete with farmers for tickets

Maybe there’s a fifth I don’t see. Regardless, you have to pick one. Thinking we can carry on without at least one of these happening is denying human nature and the laws of economics, which is kind of the same thing.


I don't entirely agree with the point that farmers (and I include Ghost players in that) will prevent new players from getting tickets. Everyone has an equal shot at tickets on registration day. New players have just as much chance of getting tickets as people wanting multiple runs for farming.

I can see the point that people wanting to buy tickets later on might not have them available, but that is probably only applicable for non-GENCON conventions. It seems likely that GENCON will continue to have quick ticket sellouts unless something significant changes (possibly like another big ticket price increase).

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Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #35

Mike Steele wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: Current analysis is that farming earns a slight profit.

Give more people CoAs, and maybe a few more people will farm. Slight effect.

But, let people wear the equivalent of two CoAs at once, and suddenly farming is WAY profitable, even without ghosting.

More tickets soaked up by farmers is fewer tickets for newbies. Major effect.

There are only a few potential results:
A. Raise ticket prices to make farming less profitable
B. Dilute treasure with more uncommons to make farming less profitable
C. Stop raising the cap to keep farming less profitable
D. Chase away newbies who can’t compete with farmers for tickets

Maybe there’s a fifth I don’t see. Regardless, you have to pick one. Thinking we can carry on without at least one of these happening is denying human nature and the laws of economics, which is kind of the same thing.


I don't entirely agree with the point that farmers (and I include Ghost players in that) will prevent new players from getting tickets. Everyone has an equal shot at tickets on registration day. New players have just as much chance of getting tickets as people wanting multiple runs for farming.

I can see the point that people wanting to buy tickets later on might not have them available, but that is probably only applicable for non-GENCON conventions. It seems likely that GENCON will continue to have quick ticket sellouts unless something significant changes (possibly like another big ticket price increase).


Every individual request has an equal chance of being met. Agreed.

But if people can play for free, or even make money at it, they will increase their demand for tickets. (ECON 101) No, farmers won’t snag them all, but they’ll be trying to get a lot more, and buying them in bulk. The chances of newbies getting tickets will necessarily decrease, not necessarily to zero. It’s just math.

"Ceci n'est pas une pipe" - Magritte

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Last edit: by Brad Mortensen.

Question about Legendary Transmutes and Reprints 5 years 1 month ago #36

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote: Current analysis is that farming earns a slight profit.


I do not believe this has been satisfactorily established.

I can not imagine turning a profit with my Gen Con pulls unless I got very lucky with pulls.

I mean actually, practically, in the real world turning a profit, not an approximation that begins with "well - treasure pulls are worth about $4..."

A real world profitability analysis must also account for the travel and expenses of getting to the con and maintaining yourself while there, the expenses of eBay/payment processor fees, the expense of shipping supplies, and include the time it takes to market and sell the tokens when computing a rate per hour for profit.


I’m not trying to build a business case with to-the-penny estimates. It’s impossible anyway. I’m trying to show that another stackable LTE is inviting catastrophe.

To answer your points:
No one can (yet) make a profit by going to a convention solely for farming. Thus travel, hotel etc are sunk costs and may be ignored. They aren’t a factor for locals anyway.

A lot is traded on the forums or in person for zero fees. It’s too variable. And most sellers charge extra for postage. “About $4” may be unsatisfying but it’s an estimate. Pick another number if you want. It doesn’t negate the principle I’m discussing. It only moves the crisis point forward or backwards in time a couple of years.

I think a ROM estimate is perfectly satisfactory to determine whether or not there’s a problem on the horizon. If you want to do calculations to prove we’re one Nugget over or under break-even, you’re more than welcome, but it totally misses my point.

Be sure to work it out with five ghosts and a 36 TC loot cap, because that’s the scenario I specifically called out.


I didn't realize you were referring to a hypothetical situation where the loot cap is substantially larger than it is today.

I agree that if you had a way to pull 36 treasure today in the current token sales environment perhaps you could make a profit.

Do we agree that at 21 treasure it hasn't been established that you can run the dungeon and expect to reliably make more than the cost of your ticket?

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Last edit: by Matthew Hayward.
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