TOPIC: What is in an $8K 2019 Order?

Azzy wrote: So, correct my if I misunderstand, but a 1k condensed pack is basically just all the rares, uncommons and potential URs you would normally get, then just all the commons have been pre-transmuted into trade tokens- basically just cutting out the step where you would have turned around and paid a bunch more in shipping to mulch them all anyways?

Yep

Well, in that case, I suppose I could take a stab at guessing what would be in each 1k condensed common bundle. For that, I would assume they don't manually sort out every pack and just assume a perfect distribution and send trade tokens accordingly. To that end, for each set of 40, you could expect:

50gp
7x MS
9x DS
5x DP
5x PS
6x MH
3x AI
3x AP
1x EM

Since there would be 21 sets of 40 for each 1k pack (840 total), that means:

1050gp
147x MS
189x DS
105x DP
105x PS
126x MH
63x AI
63x AP
21x EM

That would be individual items and what trade good they correspond to, so ultimately the trade goods in perfect world distribution might look something like:

1050gp
5.88x MS
7.56x DS
4.2x DP
4.2x PS
5.04x MH
2.52x AI
2.52x AP
0.84x EM

Soooo, ultimately, if I had guess that they would round normally, I would be guessing at:


1050gp
6x MS
8x DS
4x DP
4x PS
5x MH
3x AI
3x AP
1x EM

Which comes out to 34 total trade items, or 850 common items worth, which is pretty close to last year, which was about 847 common items worth from 33 trade items and the two potions.

Essentially yes.

Azzy wrote: Well, in that case, I suppose I could take a stab at guessing what would be in each 1k condensed common bundle. For that, I would assume they don't manually sort out every pack and just assume a perfect distribution and send trade tokens accordingly. To that end, for each set of 40, you could expect:

50gp
7x MS
9x DS
5x DP
5x PS
6x MH
3x AI
3x AP
1x EM

Since there would be 21 sets of 40 for each 1k pack (840 total), that means:

1050gp
147x MS
189x DS
105x DP
105x PS
126x MH
63x AI
63x AP
21x EM

That would be individual items and what trade good they correspond to, so ultimately the trade goods in perfect world distribution might look something like:

1050gp
5.88x MS
7.56x DS
4.2x DP
4.2x PS
5.04x MH
2.52x AI
2.52x AP
0.84x EM

Soooo, ultimately, if I had guess that they would round normally, I would be guessing at:


1050gp
6x MS
8x DS
4x DP
4x PS
5x MH
3x AI
3x AP
1x EM

Which comes out to 34 total trade items, or 850 common items worth, which is pretty close to last year, which was about 847 common items worth from 33 trade items and the two potions.

I suspect AI or AP will rounded down.

edwin wrote: I suspect AI or AP will rounded down.

Maybe, though both of them seem to have been rounded up last year.

Azzy wrote:

edwin wrote: I suspect AI or AP will rounded down.

Maybe, though both of them seem to have been rounded up last year.

1 AI in the set aka 21 of those AI turn into 2 distilled healing potions and your math turns down to 2 AI I am guessing with 42 left in the combination. 42 being 1.6 transmutes.

macXdmg wrote:

Azzy wrote:

edwin wrote: I suspect AI or AP will rounded down.

Maybe, though both of them seem to have been rounded up last year.

1 AI in the set aka 21 of those AI turn into 2 distilled healing potions and your math turns down to 2 AI I am guessing with 42 left in the combination. 42 being 1.6 transmutes.

My math for 2019 was done assuming that when the distilled healing potion recipe expires this year we won't have a year where the AI common tokens are split between multiple trade goods. That being said, last year had fewer tokens that converted into AI- bliss mead and brawn. Compared to the three this year- totem paint, quickberry root and vigor root.

If I had been number crunching last year in the exact same way it would have looked like this:
per 40 tokens:
1x distilled healing
1x AI
3x AP

per 840 (commons from 1k pack)
21x distilled healing
21x AI
63x AP

Final trade goods:
1.9x distilled healing
0.84x AI
2.52x AP

Final assumed trade goods per condensed after rounding:
2x distilled healing
1x AI
3x AP

I think that was what it ended up as last year.

Azzy wrote:

macXdmg wrote:

Azzy wrote:

edwin wrote: I suspect AI or AP will rounded down.

Maybe, though both of them seem to have been rounded up last year.

1 AI in the set aka 21 of those AI turn into 2 distilled healing potions and your math turns down to 2 AI I am guessing with 42 left in the combination. 42 being 1.6 transmutes.

My math for 2019 was done assuming that when the distilled healing potion recipe expires this year we won't have a year where the AI common tokens are split between multiple trade goods. That being said, last year had fewer tokens that converted into AI- bliss mead and brawn. Compared to the three this year- totem paint, quickberry root and vigor root.

If I had been number crunching last year in the exact same way it would have looked like this:
per 40 tokens:
1x distilled healing
1x AI
3x AP

per 840 (commons from 1k pack)
21x distilled healing
21x AI
63x AP

Final trade goods:
1.9x distilled healing
0.84x AI
2.52x AP

Final assumed trade goods per condensed after rounding:
2x distilled healing
1x AI
3x AP

I think that was what it ended up as last year.

AI last year was 1.68 (not counting the healing item)
AP last year was 2.52

AI was rounded down to 1
AP was rounded up to 3

edwin wrote: AI last year was 1.68 (not counting the healing item)
AP last year was 2.52

AI was rounded down to 1
AP was rounded up to 3

So, not counting the healing item, the rate of AI in a perfect distribution would have been 1.68, since two items were marked as transmuting into it. Yet, not counting healing items would be wrong, since healing items were accounted for in the condensed packs. Thus, when counting that one of the items was being converted into a healing item, that brings the AI rate down to 0.84, which was rounded normally into 1.

2018 token counts
2x Potion of Distilled Healing
1x Alchemist’s Ink
3x Alchemist’s Parchment
5x Darkwood Plank
7x Dwarven Steel
1x Enchanter’s Munitions
5x Minotaur Hide
8x Mystic Silk
3x Philosopher’s Stone
1,050 GP      

2017 token counts
2x Potion of Distilled Healing
1x Alchemist’s Ink
3x Alchemist’s Parchment
5x Darkwood Plank
7x Dwarven Steel
1x Enchanter’s Munitions
5x Minotaur Hide
7x Mystic Silk
4x Philosopher’s Stone
1,050 GP      


Been tracking condensed past two years and this is what was given per condensed pack in lieu of commons.

In case anyone was curious, about token value of condensed vs regular packs.

I think of note- I don't believe there were any instances of arbitrary rounding in last year's common condensed packs. Everything ended up being rounded normally, which is part of my reasoning for assuming they would continue to do so this year.

If my prediction is correct and they only go with normal rounding, then the total value of a condensed pack would be 871. If they included the one instance of arbitrary rounding in addition to otherwise normal rounding, then the value of each condensed pack would be 846. Unless I math'd wrong somewhere along the line, of course (my previous total of 850 instead of 871 didn't include the 21 50gp tokens). XD