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TOPIC: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again

Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #1

After opening up 2K worth of tokens, I'd like to bring up some concerns.

First, the good: seems like there was no problems with commons - no duplication within packs (unless one was plat), ditto with uncommons. While I've only sorted half of the uncommons, it seems like the distribution was pretty good.

Rares: after 2k, *240* packs, I'm still one rare short of a set. On average, I should have gotten 6 of each rare, and an occasional 2 or even 1 would have been believable, but *0*? Unfortunately, it's the Kraken's Tear, so my total gold for 2k is also way off on the low side.

Ultrarares: after 240 packs, I had only one random purp. That's Brian Symington caliber bad luck, although I don't know that even he went 8 years of $250 buys before his first random purp. I'm sure that getting true randomness for something that's 1 in a 100 is extremely difficult, but I can tell you that from this end of the stick, it's disappointing.

All I'm asking is that you revisit whatever method is used for distributing the purps and assembling the 10 packs into the blocks of 10, and from there into the larger shipments.

binia

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Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #2

In a 1 K order I didn't get 2 rares, one was a rare gold item so yea, I was a little down in gold.

Last year was really bad, out of 30 packs 11 rares were the same thing.

This year was otherwise fine.

I've only pulled one random purp in my life, so I would love a new method of purple distribution.
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Last edit: by archmage78.

Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #3

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I didn't see this year the Rare clumping that I saw last year, but my distribution was also off a bit. I opened 120 packs, and, like Binia, I did not get a single Kraken's Tear. I think I am missing a few other rares, but I have to finish sorting the tokens to know for sure. I'll update this post once I've finished sorting.
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Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #4

I also opened 120 packs, and the distribution wasn't horrible. The only rare I didn't get was a Treasure Map (darn it!). I did have one pack that had two rares that I thought was kind of weird, but I also got a random purple so I can't complain. I think I was right on the average for gold according to a calculation I saw in another thread.

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Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #5

The pack that had two rares in it, was it missing a common or an uncommon?

Kim
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Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #6

A common. It had two rares, two uncommons and the rest commons. I know one of the rares was one of the daggers but I forget what the other rare was.

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Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #7

No Treasure maps ouch!!!!
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Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #8

archmage78 wrote: No Treasure maps ouch!!!!


I know :( And I only got enough of the common ones to get two pulls. My luck was nonexistent on both of those! And it seems like absolutely no one is trading them either.

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Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #9

In the 240 packs I opened, I got TWO complete sets and 2 purps! Last year out of the 240 packs I got FOUR random purps but was missing a few rares to complete my set.

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Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #10

*disclaimer: this is not meant as a complaint, just observation*
each of my 1k orders (coming from different orders) were missing different rares (1k short one rare, other 1k short two), but they didnt overlap, so it worked out that i at least got some of everything. though, i ended up oddly short on almost all of the rare armor.

for random URs, i am suprised every year how 1 per 100 always seems to equate to 1 per 120. in all my ordering (ive ordered at least 1k each year starting with the chip tokens), i think i have equalled 1 per 120...missing completely once, but making up for it with a second UR once. even though i feel mathematically deprived by an UR (the extra 20 packs add up to over 100 at this point), i am still very happy with my random pulls this year...they were tokens i was wanting to get (the quiver of annointment 'mysteriously' disappeared from my want list a few days ago).

i know it has been said that URs arent technically a random 1% chance...there is literally 1 UR in each block of 100 packs. which makes it very important where in the run your order starts from. im suprised noone has suggested it before, but how about:

-small orders get pulled from broken blocks (obviously the only option, they may luck into an UR or not)
-1k orders get an exact 100 pack block (that will contain exactly 1 UR), then 20 more packs from a broken block.
-8k orders get 9x 100 pack blocks (exactly 9 UR), plus the 60 more packs from a broken block.

this set-up prevents things like a 1k order getting the last 60 packs of one block and the first 60 of the next and not getting the UR out of either (it also prevents the possibility of the 10-100-10 and getting 3 UR, for better or worse). so, orders will be guaranteed 1 bonus/random UR per 100 packs received, with the possibility of more in the extra packs. the only thing about this is that jeff would need to have each 100pack block seperated to start with, and only break them open as needed for smaller orders and additional packs...i have no idea how the tokens currently arrive to him, this may be easy or impossible.
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Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #11

I'm on the other side of the distribution problems...
Last year I ordered and got:

a $100 pack (my very first, bought with brothers just in case this game was cool): got a 00Purp Ring :cheer:

a $500 pack of my own because the addiction came on fast: got a 00purp gauntlets. :)

then a couple more orders, which in total got me on the list for the hospitality suite... three different orders, and two 00purps and one GT. :silly: :blink: :ohmy: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Obviously, I'm not complaining... but the "odds" I believe should have seen me get maybe 2 00purps with my orders, but I ended up with four and a GT...
Mind what you have learned. Save you it can. --Yoda

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Re: Distribution/Randomness Issues - Again 13 years 2 months ago #12

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Binia, you made me laugh out loud! Sorry you had my level of luck!
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