TOPIC: Power Creep Over Time

I took a look at power creep over time, as viewed through the lense of available to all (or spellcasters) buffs over time.

Notes on this analysis:
- Doesn't include not-avaialble to all things like Greater Mistletoe
- Doesn't include things that don't impact the party card (e.g. Earcuff of Energy).
- Does include weapon bonuses once all classes get access to them (e.g. a +5 melee to-hit bonus in 2016 once every class was able to wield a +5 weapon).
- Slight judgement calls were made on slots that overlap (e.g. +3 to hit Sniper Spectacles kept over +1 damage 2019 uncommon eye slot items). I've posted the relevant tokens at the end.
- Synergy bonuses are at 1 player
- Bardsong and consumables not included
- Slot expanders/switchers not considered

Damage Bonuses Over Time




Interesting features:

The damage power creep rate is well fitted by a 2nd degree polynomial (better than linear or exponential).

No ranged damage boosters till 2010!

No spell damage boosters till 2007, one only till 2013!

Ranged damage bonus is 1/2 the melee damage bonus. Spell damage bonus did basically nothing through 2013 but has been rapidly catching up.

Melee has seen damage increases every year since 2011, ranged every year since 2013, and spell every year since 2015.

To-Hit Bonuses Over Time



Interesting features:

Ranged sometimes takes a dip where to-damage tokens show up in places that used to boost dex (e.g. losing Gloves of the Cutpurse to Greater Gloves of Archery and Ring of the Anointed to Ring of the Yeti).

The to-hit power creep rate is well fitted by a 2nd degree polynomial (better than linear or exponential).


Relevant Tokens

Melee:
2003 Gauntlets of Ogre Power, +1 weapons
2004
2005 Girdle of Hill Giant Strength, +2 weapons (- +1 weapons)
2006
2007
2008
2009 Crown of Might, Necklace of the Oak
2010 Ring of Frost, Mithral Gauntlets, Orb of Might
2011
2012 Wicked Charm, Draco-Lich Claw Charm, Rod of Seven Parts Segment 5, Surtr's Girdle of Fire Giant Strength, Bracers of Fire
2013 Boots of the North Wind, Ioun Stone Onyx Cube, Ioun Stone Onyx Sphere
2014 Stu-pendous Pendant (- Necklace of the Oak), +3 weapons (-2 +2 weapons)
2015 Gloves of the Brute (-Mothral Guantlets)
2016 Boots of the Four Winds (-Boots of the North Wind), Goggles of Instant Analysis, Shirt of Blessed Strength, +5 weapons (- +3 weapons)
2017 Ring of the Hallowed
2018 Greater Onyx Charm (- Wicked Charm), Onyx Charm (- Fiendish Charm), Ring of the Eel (- Ring of the Hallowed)
2019 Kilt of Barrelbane, Eternal Ice Crystal

Ranged:
2003
2004
2005 Gloves of Dexterity, +0 ranged weapons
2006
2007
2008
2009 +2 ranged weapons
2010 Bracers of Supreme Archery
2011 Mithral Boots
2012 Draco-Lich Claw Charm, Sniper Spectacles
2013 Rod of Seven Parts Segment 6
2014 Gloves of Archery (- Gloves of Dexterity), Ioun Stone Quicksilver Cube, Ioun Stone Quicksilver Sphere, Stu-pendous Pendant, Viper Strike Belt
2015 Boots of the West Wind (- Mithral Boots)
2016 Vicious Charm, Boots of the Four Winds (- Boots of the West Wind)
2017 Charm of the Sipquick, Holly Ring, Aron's Sunhide Robe
2018 Ring of the Anointed, Gloves of Greater Archery (-Gloves of the Cutpurse), Kilt of Fatherbane, +5 ranged weapons
2019 Ring of the Yeti (- Ring of the Anointed)

Spell:
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 Ring of Focus
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Bracelets of the Cabal
2014 Relsa's Ring of Supreme Focus, Ring of Greater Focus
2015
2016 Boots of the Four Winds,+5 Focus weapons, Medallion of Focus
2017 Lenses of Focus
2018 Shirt of Focus
2019 Sonic Earcuff, Gregor's Tome of Focus

The biggest takeaway from me is that melee damage seems to be both:

1. Higher than ranged.
2. Growing faster than ranged.

did you subtract a charm in 2018? melee?

jedibcg wrote: did you subtract a charm in 2018? melee?

I did - but I see now I messed up.

I ended up with Greater Onyx, Onyx, and Draco-Lich.

I could have left in Fiendish for Onyx for +1 STR.

Oh well

Great breakdown there is much to digest from that data

Matthew Hayward wrote:

jedibcg wrote: did you subtract a charm in 2018? melee?

I did - but I see now I messed up.

I ended up with Greater Onyx, Onyx, and Draco-Lich.

I could have left in Fiendish for Onyx for +1 STR.

Oh well

I haven't checked your numbers, but I have a methodology question. Did you consider actual builds or just assume that any token made would be used?

Also, did you consider inculding Runestones?

Harlax wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote:

jedibcg wrote: did you subtract a charm in 2018? melee?

I did - but I see now I messed up.

I ended up with Greater Onyx, Onyx, and Draco-Lich.

I could have left in Fiendish for Onyx for +1 STR.

Oh well

I haven't checked your numbers, but I have a methodology question. Did you consider actual builds or just assume that any token made would be used?

Also, did you consider inculding Runestones?

No runestones (or consumables of any kind), any tokens that advance the gameplan.

Notably, this puts Aron's Sunhide Robe in the Torso slot for all classes on the "ranged to-hit" calculation - which is obviously not what a lot of the more martial classes are wearing.

Damage wise I think the builds are highly realistic, assuming one is at the token purchasing tier of legendaries (e.g. no weird stuff is in the build like Helm of the Boar).

Thanks. Looking at my build, I'm with you on to hit. Not so much on damage. I'll play with some builds and see what I can optimize. Although I suspect it will require some compromises on saves, AC, and HP that I would find undesirable.

Other fun notes, carrying forward the same trendlines, in 8 years at TDC 25 we'll be looking at:

Melee damage bonus: +70
Ranged damage bonus: +76
Spell damage bonus: +90

Start buying your Wizard gear now!

In D&D campaigns this sort of thing is managed by increasing both character level and monster level. We have spent 15 years at 3rd and then 4th level as our base. Maybe it's time to level everything up.

Harlax wrote: In D&D campaigns this sort of thing is managed by increasing both character level and monster level. We have spent 15 years at 3rd and then 4th level as our base. Maybe it's time to level everything up.

Maybe go 9th and 10th level,
Based on how much loot
The average player has.
4th and 5th is too low.

Matthew, do you have Modules/data that would allow you to track changes in Monster To Hit and Damage over the years?