TOPIC: On Reprint URs

As we begin the exciting discussion of UR reprints, I've been mulling something over that I wanted to put forward.

The below only pertains to non-URTE tokens, URTEs have their own challenges, but I don’t consider them relevant to immediate discussion as the printing schedules for URTEs is set through at least 2020. So let the remainder of this discussion refer to non-URTEs UR reprints.


Overview of Problem

The topic of reprinting Ultrarares brings a few reasonable player perspectives into direct conflict:

• Newer collectors want access to some of the best tokens ever printed
• Longtime collectors don’t want to see the value of their older UR tokens drop substantially

This conflict primarily exists due to True Dungeon’s “Ultra Rare Value Pack” where any current or prior year ultra rare may be acquired as a purchase bonus for the $250 price tier, and the secondary market which has put around a $95 price point on reselling PyP URs.

Diagnosis

This current system ensures that any time a valuable token is reprinted its market value immediately goes to ~$95, where it stays for ~2 years, before may begin to appreciate again, if ever.

This system also inhibits secondary market appreciation of older tokens, because many buyers are aware of the potential for reprints and won’t consider buying a non-URTE for more than $200 or so.

Goals and Ideas

I’d like to discuss some ideas that achieve the goal of:

Allow new collectors access to older tokens, without periodically crashing the value of existing collections most valuable tokens.

If you don't agree with this goal, I'd also be curious to hear what you think a good goal of a reprint policy would be.

Idea 1 - UR Only Random Reprints

Tokens could be reprinted, but not available as a Ultra Rare of your choice selection for $250 at all - only as a randomly found token in 10 packs or treasure generators.

Idea 2 - UR Reprints "Cost" Multiple PyP Selections

Reprinted tokens could be set to require 2, or even 3 or 4 UR selections. For example, a reprint of Charm of Brooching could be made that requires three $250 orders worth of PyP selections in order to receive one Charm of Brooching.

Idea 3 - UR Reprints Selections are Limited to One Per 1/2/4/8k Order :

A reprinted token would still count for only one PyP selection, but buyers would be limited to one reprint selection per 1k/2k/4k/8k order. For example, Charm of Brooching could be reprinted, but no more than 1 could be selected as a UR selection per 2k order.


My Preference

To varying degrees all of these options would increase the amount of older, highly desirable UR tokens while also reducing the chance that their values would drop to ~$95 upon reprinting.

I like Idea 2 the best. It’s direct and flexible, it allows True Dungeon to adjust things easily - e.g. a reprint of Girdle of Hill Giant strength could cost 1 pick, Gloves of Glory 2, and Charm of Brooching 3.

I don’t think Idea 1 would introduce enough new supply to meet the demands of new collectors.

I think Idea 3 is interesting - but might add a bunch of complication and not really solve the problem of values of existing tokens dropping - as even with this restriction there might be enough supply to meet all demand and still crash the prices down to ~$95 for reprinted tokens.


What are your thoughts?

I've put up a poll to solicit votes towards these options, "no change", and some "none of the above" options, feel free to vote there, I'll announce the results once new submissions slow down.

www.surveymonkey.com/r/62XNRZM

I love that you are thinking outside the box. I think your overview misses something though. New collectors/players don't just want access to older (better) tokens, they also want them at PYP prices/value. If they just wanted those tokens most of them exist for sale today it is just they have a higher price tag. Not saying that is a bad thing just that is the way that it is.

As I see it idea one has the issue of rewarding those that make bigger purchase even more. I am not saying that is a bad thing or a good. Just that it does. If a UR has a value of $200 and cannot be got as a PYP then buying more gives you a better chance to get that $200 UR. Again not saying that is a good thing or a bad thing, but it would be a thing.

I also don't know if it is an issue if my collection's value goes up and down. If I am selling tokens (which I do have some for sale) I agree it does. But if the tokens they I am using to play with go up or down in monetary value it doesn't matter to me. So is it Jeff responsibility to have tokens retain increasing monetary value? Maybe it is maybe it isn't. I don't have an answer maybe that should be answered first.

jedibcg wrote: I love that you are thinking outside the box. I think your overview misses something though. New collectors/players don't just want access to older (better) tokens, they also want them at PYP prices/value. If they just wanted those tokens most of them exist for sale today it is just they have a higher price tag. Not saying that is a bad thing just that is the way that it is.

As I see it idea one has the issue of rewarding those that make bigger purchase even more. I am not saying that is a bad thing or a good. Just that it does. If a UR has a value of $200 and cannot be got as a PYP then buying more gives you a better chance to get that $200 UR. Again not saying that is a good thing or a bad thing, but it would be a thing.

I also don't know if it is an issue if my collection's value goes up and down. If I am selling tokens (which I do have some for sale) I agree it does. But if the tokens they I am using to play with go up or down in monetary value it doesn't matter to me. So is it Jeff responsibility to have tokens retain increasing monetary value? Maybe it is maybe it isn't. I don't have an answer maybe that should be answered first.

I see what you mean.

I was thinking of how this works in Magic, where they reprint high value cards in limited edition sets, they can thus introduce supply while only dinging the value of the existing cards by maybe 20% on average.

Of course, with Magic:

a. You get any given card MUCH more often than once in 2,000 packs!
b. You ONLY get cards in random packs.

I think that we just have to assume that tokens would eventually get reprinted, and live with it.

Trust me, as someone who trades almost exclusively in only URs, I would *LOVE* to have the assurance that my tokens would always be worth more. That being said, token are not stocks. They are not an 'investment'. As a secondary seller, I benefit from the idea that all tokens can appreciate - but I have also been known to say, quite publicly, that people should never *count* on that.

If someone is buying a token from me, and I hear them say 'it is ok, because I can sell it for that or more later' to their friend ... I am very quick to point out that this might not be true. I've talked myself out of a few sales that way, but I can sleep at night.

There have been conversations before about how concerned/involved Jeff should be with the secondary market .. and I don't need to rehash my stance to heavily .. but I *as* a fairly active seller/trader of secondary tokens .. I'll state that I don't expect Jeff to be at all concerned, nor responsible, for the impact reprints might have on me in regards to the financial stability of my token collection.

He has enough to worry about with balancing the game, making sure there are good puzzles, keeping production values up, and bringing TD to new conventions so it can live forever. He doesn't need to deal with this IMHO.

TL&DR; Don't spend on tokens what you are not willing to lose on tokens. If TD shut down tomorrow, they would all be worthless.

Steve wrote:
TL&DR; Don't spend on tokens what you are not willing to lose on tokens. If TD shut down tomorrow, they would all be worthless.

Steve, I think your outlook is spot on. That is my biggest joke and fear for my collection. What I invested this last year alone......yikes! I like to get a couple more years out of it before that would happen LOL. I also hope there is a contingency plan for passing the torch. I am at a point where after I get my two Legendaries built there is no much on the back end I want and I'm already only a few ingredients and 7k away from completing them both. It will be nice to take a breather until 2018 goes on sale.

Some tokens went up like crazy and some dropped like rocks. There arte certain items like the RoSP that will never be made again so a few UR's will not hurt the token ecosystem much.

How about no?

Jeff has stated before that he doesn't want to allow the secondary market to affect token sales.

Making PYPs a random chance at a reprint UR completely changes that incentive. It takes away the choice and leaves you with just a guaranteed UR. Resellers have the resources to buy whole sets. Small timers often have to save or pool resources just to get a $250 pack. "Okay guys, thanks, that's everyone. I sure do hope we get a UR we need!"

Will we need to ask Jeff to hire someone to keep track of every sale so that we can be sure the current "market value to PYP" ratio stays accurate and current? Should we be required to report all UR sales and trades?

If you don't want a reprint, come up with a functional replacement (Gloves of the Brute = Mithral Gauntlets) or convince everyone a reprint would be detrimental to game balance.

Come up with something better than "please protect my investment", "please keep me from losing money."

Matthew Hayward wrote: I see what you mean.

I was thinking of how this works in Magic, where they reprint high value cards in limited edition sets, they can thus introduce supply while only dinging the value of the existing cards by maybe 20% on average.

Of course, with Magic:

a. You get any given card MUCH more often than once in 2,000 packs!
b. You ONLY get cards in random packs.

Magic has some other factors involved in cardboard crack economy.

They are WAY bigger than TD. I didn't find current numbers but in 2014 it was over 20 million players. That makes for a much bigger robust card economy.

They have a competitive element. Magic is a competitive game even if you are only playing against your friend you are still playing against him or her. Therefor being able to get cards that beating your opponent can help drive sells on secondary markets. This valuable not because of its rarity but because it helps you win. TD doesn't exactly have that element. You can play and be successful without getting any 'chase' tokens. Not saying this is good or bad just different.

MtG has a pro element. This is VERY much tied to the competitive nature of the game. But from what I have seen there is another layer to it. The very best MtG players don't spend money on cards. If they are good enough they don't spend money on tournament because someone sponsors them. It is the guy at his local gamestore buying all the cards to hopefully one day be good that is paying for everything at the very top. It is almost like a pyramid scheme. TD is almost the opposite. Those that spend oodles of money on tokens are the ones that help fund all the awesome props that the rest of us get to enjoy. I know my 2k-4k a year token purchases wouldn't pay for 1 room in the dungeon.

Sorry I know this isn't on point, but just thought it interesting when comparing the two imo very different models. Not saying one is bad and one is good. I will say I like one more than the other, but there are 20 million folks that play MtG so there is that.

JACKOFTRADZE wrote: I also hope there is a contingency plan for passing the torch.

Clearly, Stu is the contingency plan. Didn't you see how much screen time he got in the Pax video?

Hopefully, it is clear that this was a joke. If not, oh well, it is a fun rumor to start.

Matthew Hayward wrote: Longtime collectors don’t want to see the value of their older UR tokens drop substantially

I guess I disagree with this premise. I have & am continuing to advocate for reprints that I already own. As long as it is a limited number (3-5 ish) as it has been, their value dropping is not that big of a deal. Most of my collection value is in Relic+. So my vote in the poll was no change.

I can understand why re-sellers would be anti-reprint though.

Fiddy wrote:

JACKOFTRADZE wrote: I also hope there is a contingency plan for passing the torch.

Clearly, Stu is the contingency plan. Didn't you see how much screen time he got in the Pax video?

Hopefully, it is clear that this was a joke. If not, oh well, it is a fun rumor to start.

+1

Matthew Hayward Wrote
Overview of Problem

Overview of Problem

The topic of reprinting Ultrarares brings a few reasonable player perspectives into direct conflict:

Newer collectors want access to some of the best tokens ever printed

Longtime collectors don’t want to see the value of their older UR tokens drop substantially
This conflict primarily exists due to True Dungeon’s “Ultra Rare Value Pack” where any current or prior year ultra rare may be acquired as a purchase bonus for the $250 price tier, and the secondary market which has put around a $95 price point on reselling PyP URs.

Matthew,
I like how you have succinctly identified the problem however, the solutions you propose seem to cost the newer players more. There doesn't seem to be a solution that would be palatable to all involved. If you could come up with that, I would invite you to join the group attempting to solve unrest in N. Korea or the Middle East.
It's a very difficult and sticky situation for many folks. I don't sell tokens so Perhaps I would see it differently if I did. As previously pointed out in this thread, Like any commodity relative prices can fluctuate to zero almost instantly. Take a look at penny stocks. Some soar to ridiculous returns while most languish and die. Which ones should I buy????
How am I to know?
Everything in life is a risk and so is purchasing and holding tokens for sale.

Bob Chasan wrote:

Fiddy wrote:

JACKOFTRADZE wrote: I also hope there is a contingency plan for passing the torch.

Clearly, Stu is the contingency plan. Didn't you see how much screen time he got in the Pax video?

Hopefully, it is clear that this was a joke. If not, oh well, it is a fun rumor to start.

+1

Vote Stu in 2018