TOPIC: Con Expansion == Swimming in Fleece?

So don't hate me and I know were not even remotely ready to talk about reprints yet, but didn't Jeff say there would be some cool TE transmute involving the AoTF?
If so, without a reprint, that seems to be rewarding a very small group of individuals. If most have been transmuted into CoA, why would he need to transmute that particular token?

Bob Chasan wrote: So don't hate me and I know were not even remotely ready to talk about reprints yet, but didn't Jeff say there would be some cool TE transmute involving the AoTF?
If so, without a reprint, that seems to be rewarding a very small group of individuals. If most have been transmuted into CoA, why would he need to transmute that particular token?

The "very small group" that will be "rewarded" are those who purchased large quantities of tokens from True Dungeon, or those who stimulated demand among the first group by buying in the secondary market.

All the information about the future URTE policy was public when AoTF was in print, so the only possible reason to not have AoTF is:

1. Weren't interested / couldn't afford it while in print despite announcement it would be part of a future transmute.
2. Weren't a token collector at the time those tokens were in print.

It's a bit hard to understand the perspective that members of those two groups should get a reprint of AoTF at the expense of people who sent TD hundreds or thousands of dollars in 2015/16 for the privilege of holding a collectible token asset for around a decade so it could be transmuted.

True Dungeon Tokens are collectibles. If TD just reprints every token that appreciates, it ceases to be a collectible. If TD tokens cease to be a collectible, I suspect token revenues would substantially decrease.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Bob Chasan wrote: So don't hate me and I know were not even remotely ready to talk about reprints yet, but didn't Jeff say there would be some cool TE transmute involving the AoTF?
If so, without a reprint, that seems to be rewarding a very small group of individuals. If most have been transmuted into CoA, why would he need to transmute that particular token?

The "very small group" that will be "rewarded" are those who purchased large quantities of tokens from True Dungeon, or those who stimulated demand among the first group by buying in the secondary market.

All the information about the future URTE policy was public when AoTF was in print, so the only possible reason to not have AoTF is:

1. Weren't interested / couldn't afford it while in print despite announcement it would be part of a future transmute.
2. Weren't a token collector at the time those tokens were in print.

It's a bit hard to understand the perspective that members of those two groups should get a reprint of AoTF at the expense of people who sent TD hundreds or thousands of dollars in 2015/16 for the privilege of holding a collectible token asset for around a decade so it could be transmuted.

True Dungeon Tokens are collectibles. If TD just reprints every token that appreciates, it ceases to be a collectible. If TD tokens cease to be a collectible, I suspect token revenues would substantially decrease.

I'd guess the reason Jeff announced the AoTF was going to be part of a future transmute while it was in print was to help spike sales. Since it doesn't stack with the CoA, there wouldn't be a reason for people with a CoA to get one otherwise.

I agree with Matthew that reprinting the AoTF would penalize people that tied up hundreds or thousands of dollars for a decade to make the transmute.

Mike Steele wrote: I'd guess the reason Jeff announced the AoTF was going to be part of a future transmute ...

Yes, he said all that. But I don’t recall him saying it would or wouldn’t be reprinted when that time came. In the silence, different people made different assumptions. No point in anyone saying why they think their interpretation was correct. The fact is there was ambiguity.

I agree with Matthew that reprinting the AoTF would penalize people ,,.

Who hacked Mike’s account? This makes me ROTFL. Every year when reprints are discussed this very point is made, and rejected as profiteering. The argument is that Mighty Bow, CoS, Tulz, Widseths, et al have risen to double or triple PYP prices because of high demand, and people who missed out should get a chance at BIS tokens at a “reasonable” price, and people who are against it hate newbies and only care about their own profit. With three new cons, the demand for everything is rising. Good for TD! And now, some of these same people say that AoTF should be immune from reprint for the exact reasons they disparage when THEIR reprint was being discussed. So remember your words when the 2019 collection is being debated.

It just makes me laugh. I know Jeff will sort it all out sometime in the next decade.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Bob Chasan wrote: So don't hate me and I know were not even remotely ready to talk about reprints yet, but didn't Jeff say there would be some cool TE transmute involving the AoTF?
If so, without a reprint, that seems to be rewarding a very small group of individuals. If most have been transmuted into CoA, why would he need to transmute that particular token?

The "very small group" that will be "rewarded" are those who purchased large quantities of tokens from True Dungeon, or those who stimulated demand among the first group by buying in the secondary market.

All the information about the future URTE policy was public when AoTF was in print, so the only possible reason to not have AoTF is:

1. Weren't interested / couldn't afford it while in print despite announcement it would be part of a future transmute.
2. Weren't a token collector at the time those tokens were in print.

It's a bit hard to understand the perspective that members of those two groups should get a reprint of AoTF at the expense of people who sent TD hundreds or thousands of dollars in 2015/16 for the privilege of holding a collectible token asset for around a decade so it could be transmuted.

True Dungeon Tokens are collectibles. If TD just reprints every token that appreciates, it ceases to be a collectible. If TD tokens cease to be a collectible, I suspect token revenues would substantially decrease.

A solution that might work would be to reprint the AotF, but make it so that the 2015 printing was worth 4 points or more towards whatever transmute, while the reprint was only worth 1. Adjust the relative values however you see fit.

I realize this could result in confusion, and unscrupulous vets taking advantage of newer players. Perhaps a functional reprint wpuld be better.

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I'd guess the reason Jeff announced the AoTF was going to be part of a future transmute ...

Yes, he said all that. But I don’t recall him saying it would or wouldn’t be reprinted when that time came. In the silence, different people made different assumptions. No point in anyone saying why they think their interpretation was correct. The fact is there was ambiguity.

I agree with Matthew that reprinting the AoTF would penalize people ,,.

Who hacked Mike’s account? This makes me ROTFL. Every year when reprints are discussed this very point is made, and rejected as profiteering. The argument is that Mighty Bow, CoS, Tulz, Widseths, et al have risen to double or triple PYP prices because of high demand, and people who missed out should get a chance at BIS tokens at a “reasonable” price, and people who are against it hate newbies and only care about their own profit. With three new cons, the demand for everything is rising. Good for TD! And now, some of these same people say that AoTF should be immune from reprint for the exact reasons they disparage when THEIR reprint was being discussed. So remember your words when the 2019 collection is being debated.

It just makes me laugh. I know Jeff will sort it all out sometime in the next decade.

I'm glad I could give you a laugh, Brad.

I see this as very different from other reprint cases. This is an unprecedented situation where a UR, which has no current use for anyone with an HoP or CoA, is an ingredient for a Legendary transmute 10 years later. Many people bought them just to hold onto them for 10 years for that eventual transmute.

I'd be very surprised if Jeff reprinted it, as in my opinion that would be pretty unfair to those who tied their money up for 10 years.

But, as you said, Jeff hasn't ruled on it one way or another, so it's just speculation and guessing. And hopefully nobody's getting too worked up over it now. The best thing in my opinion about Jeff laying out a 10 year plan for TE tokens is that it should give us 8 or 9 years of relief from the annual TE debate.

Mike Steele wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I'd guess the reason Jeff announced the AoTF was going to be part of a future transmute ...

Yes, he said all that. But I don’t recall him saying it would or wouldn’t be reprinted when that time came. In the silence, different people made different assumptions. No point in anyone saying why they think their interpretation was correct. The fact is there was ambiguity.

I agree with Matthew that reprinting the AoTF would penalize people ,,.

Who hacked Mike’s account? This makes me ROTFL. Every year when reprints are discussed this very point is made, and rejected as profiteering. The argument is that Mighty Bow, CoS, Tulz, Widseths, et al have risen to double or triple PYP prices because of high demand, and people who missed out should get a chance at BIS tokens at a “reasonable” price, and people who are against it hate newbies and only care about their own profit. With three new cons, the demand for everything is rising. Good for TD! And now, some of these same people say that AoTF should be immune from reprint for the exact reasons they disparage when THEIR reprint was being discussed. So remember your words when the 2019 collection is being debated.

It just makes me laugh. I know Jeff will sort it all out sometime in the next decade.

I'm glad I could give you a laugh, Brad.

I see this as very different from other reprint cases. This is an unprecedented situation where a UR, which has no current use for anyone with an HoP or CoA, is an ingredient for a Legendary transmute 10 years later. Many people bought them just to hold onto them for 10 years for that eventual transmute.

I'd be very surprised if Jeff reprinted it, as in my opinion that would be pretty unfair to those who tied their money up for 10 years.

But, as you said, Jeff hasn't ruled on it one way or another, so it's just speculation and guessing. And hopefully nobody's getting too worked up over it now. The best thing in my opinion about Jeff laying out a 10 year plan for TE tokens is that it should give us 8 or 9 years of relief from the annual TE debate.

Relief from debate? That’s pretty optimistic given the way this forum works.

Harlax wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I'd guess the reason Jeff announced the AoTF was going to be part of a future transmute ...

Yes, he said all that. But I don’t recall him saying it would or wouldn’t be reprinted when that time came. In the silence, different people made different assumptions. No point in anyone saying why they think their interpretation was correct. The fact is there was ambiguity.

I agree with Matthew that reprinting the AoTF would penalize people ,,.

Who hacked Mike’s account? This makes me ROTFL. Every year when reprints are discussed this very point is made, and rejected as profiteering. The argument is that Mighty Bow, CoS, Tulz, Widseths, et al have risen to double or triple PYP prices because of high demand, and people who missed out should get a chance at BIS tokens at a “reasonable” price, and people who are against it hate newbies and only care about their own profit. With three new cons, the demand for everything is rising. Good for TD! And now, some of these same people say that AoTF should be immune from reprint for the exact reasons they disparage when THEIR reprint was being discussed. So remember your words when the 2019 collection is being debated.

It just makes me laugh. I know Jeff will sort it all out sometime in the next decade.

I'm glad I could give you a laugh, Brad.

I see this as very different from other reprint cases. This is an unprecedented situation where a UR, which has no current use for anyone with an HoP or CoA, is an ingredient for a Legendary transmute 10 years later. Many people bought them just to hold onto them for 10 years for that eventual transmute.

I'd be very surprised if Jeff reprinted it, as in my opinion that would be pretty unfair to those who tied their money up for 10 years.

But, as you said, Jeff hasn't ruled on it one way or another, so it's just speculation and guessing. And hopefully nobody's getting too worked up over it now. The best thing in my opinion about Jeff laying out a 10 year plan for TE tokens is that it should give us 8 or 9 years of relief from the annual TE debate.

Relief from debate? That’s pretty optimistic given the way this forum works.

I'm taking the glass half full approach.

Harlax wrote:

Mike Steele wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I'd guess the reason Jeff announced the AoTF was going to be part of a future transmute ...

Yes, he said all that. But I don’t recall him saying it would or wouldn’t be reprinted when that time came. In the silence, different people made different assumptions. No point in anyone saying why they think their interpretation was correct. The fact is there was ambiguity.

I agree with Matthew that reprinting the AoTF would penalize people ,,.

Who hacked Mike’s account? This makes me ROTFL. Every year when reprints are discussed this very point is made, and rejected as profiteering. The argument is that Mighty Bow, CoS, Tulz, Widseths, et al have risen to double or triple PYP prices because of high demand, and people who missed out should get a chance at BIS tokens at a “reasonable” price, and people who are against it hate newbies and only care about their own profit. With three new cons, the demand for everything is rising. Good for TD! And now, some of these same people say that AoTF should be immune from reprint for the exact reasons they disparage when THEIR reprint was being discussed. So remember your words when the 2019 collection is being debated.

It just makes me laugh. I know Jeff will sort it all out sometime in the next decade.

I'm glad I could give you a laugh, Brad.

I see this as very different from other reprint cases. This is an unprecedented situation where a UR, which has no current use for anyone with an HoP or CoA, is an ingredient for a Legendary transmute 10 years later. Many people bought them just to hold onto them for 10 years for that eventual transmute.

I'd be very surprised if Jeff reprinted it, as in my opinion that would be pretty unfair to those who tied their money up for 10 years.

But, as you said, Jeff hasn't ruled on it one way or another, so it's just speculation and guessing. And hopefully nobody's getting too worked up over it now. The best thing in my opinion about Jeff laying out a 10 year plan for TE tokens is that it should give us 8 or 9 years of relief from the annual TE debate.

Relief from debate? That’s pretty optimistic given the way this forum works.

Yeah, it just lets us debate about other tokens.

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I'd guess the reason Jeff announced the AoTF was going to be part of a future transmute ...

Yes, he said all that. But I don’t recall him saying it would or wouldn’t be reprinted when that time came. In the silence, different people made different assumptions. No point in anyone saying why they think their interpretation was correct. The fact is there was ambiguity.

I agree with Matthew that reprinting the AoTF would penalize people ,,.

Who hacked Mike’s account? This makes me ROTFL. Every year when reprints are discussed this very point is made, and rejected as profiteering. The argument is that Mighty Bow, CoS, Tulz, Widseths, et al have risen to double or triple PYP prices because of high demand, and people who missed out should get a chance at BIS tokens at a “reasonable” price, and people who are against it hate newbies and only care about their own profit. With three new cons, the demand for everything is rising. Good for TD! And now, some of these same people say that AoTF should be immune from reprint for the exact reasons they disparage when THEIR reprint was being discussed. So remember your words when the 2019 collection is being debated.

It just makes me laugh. I know Jeff will sort it all out sometime in the next decade.

I don't think people who are against reprints hate newbies. I don't. Every year TD provides all players 150 or so cool new Tokens to acquire. Newbies have options every year. And let's face it, most newbies are rolling with the Rare's and below. For me, more reprints makes Token collecting less desirable. Which at some point leads to fewer Token purchases.

Rob F wrote:

Brad Mortensen wrote:

Mike Steele wrote: I'd guess the reason Jeff announced the AoTF was going to be part of a future transmute ...

Yes, he said all that. But I don’t recall him saying it would or wouldn’t be reprinted when that time came. In the silence, different people made different assumptions. No point in anyone saying why they think their interpretation was correct. The fact is there was ambiguity.

I agree with Matthew that reprinting the AoTF would penalize people ,,.

Who hacked Mike’s account? This makes me ROTFL. Every year when reprints are discussed this very point is made, and rejected as profiteering. The argument is that Mighty Bow, CoS, Tulz, Widseths, et al have risen to double or triple PYP prices because of high demand, and people who missed out should get a chance at BIS tokens at a “reasonable” price, and people who are against it hate newbies and only care about their own profit. With three new cons, the demand for everything is rising. Good for TD! And now, some of these same people say that AoTF should be immune from reprint for the exact reasons they disparage when THEIR reprint was being discussed. So remember your words when the 2019 collection is being debated.

It just makes me laugh. I know Jeff will sort it all out sometime in the next decade.

I don't think people who are against reprints hate newbies. I don't. Every year TD provides all players 150 or so cool new Tokens to acquire. Newbies have options every year. And let's face it, most newbies are rolling with the Rare's and below. For me, more reprints makes Token collecting less desirable. Which at some point leads to fewer Token purchases.

Bingo.

My 2018 order was less than my 2017. My 2017 was less than my 2016. I didn't even sell PyPs in 2018.

In the last two years the following have been reprinted:

Charm of Awareness, Charm of Synergy, Libram of Looting, Runestone Fitting Base, +1 Mighty Longbow, Pouch of Tulz

In addition, near reprints of Stu-Pendous Pendant (Medallion of Valhalla), Ioun Stone Topaz Trilliant (Ioun Stone Tanzanite Cube), Druegar's Death Die (Ash's Death Pouch), +2 Slayer Sword (+2 War Shillelagh)

It's too much too fast.

It's becoming clear that anyone who pays more than $150 for a UR is probably a sucker. It's possible to be a savvy collector and dodge power creep by evaluating tokens that are unlikely to be directly exceeded in terms of power creep (Earcuff of Orbits, Kvothe's Bloodless), but once any token that does appreciate gets whacked with the reprint hammer within ~3 years of it becoming desirable that's it for collecting.

If this is the road we're on, I'd prefer TD to just make everything always available as a PyP, or have an announced reprint schedule (e.g. every year the 5 year old, 10 year old, etc. tokens are also available as a reprint).

And, for the record, I'm concerned with the health of TD's secondary market, not my collection value, I owned 0 CoA, 0 CoS, 0 Libram of Looting, 1 Runestone Fitting Base, 1 +1 MIghtly Longbow, and 2 Pouch of Tulz, so the reprints haven't smashed the value of my collection - it's just that the pattern indicates it will not be possible to see token value appreciation.

What's also sad is it doesn't have to be this way, I proposed a while back a variety of ways to make reprints and token appreciation possible, including:

a. Reprinted tokens are only available in random 10 packs, not as a PyP.
b. Reprinted PyPs take 2/3/4 PyP selections.
c. Reprinted PyPs take 1 selection, buy you may only choose one reprint per 1k order.
d. Reprinted PyPs are available in limited quantities (e.g. 100) available on a first come, first served basis.

Matthew Hayward wrote:

Matthew Hayward wrote: Golden Fleece just sold on eBay for $33.95 shipped, post announcement of a 4c transmute.

New all time low.

Update - 2x Golden Fleece just sold for $79.51 shipped on eBay, ~39.75 per.

Been under 40 for months now.

I would guess it goes lower before it goes higher with 3-4 more presentations before the likely announcement of any future transmutes. But who knows - maybe Charm of Awakened Synergy + a 4c Transmute from this year will turn the tide.

After a year or so I feel an update is in order.

Fleece has rebounded back to $50, then $55, recently an eBay sale went for $66.

With the 2019 and 2020 relics requiring 1 Fleece, Legendaries requiring 2 Fleece, and Kilt of Dungeonbane requiring 1 Fleece, along with some really nice enhanced/exalted (Blessed Tempest Gloves, Enchanter's Whetstone), and the Orion's Belt all putting some pressure on fleece it's nice to see the price recovering somewhat from its years long slump.

I am concerned there is a second wave of fleece depression coming, as it appears to me that:

A. There are fewer 2019 MB sets around than the 2016, 17, or 18s.
B. Bead of the Lucky Traveler is underwhelming and not commanding a premium relative to the price of 18 random monster bits.

Which combine to mean there should be plenty of 2016, 17, and 18 MBs getting turned into Fleece starting now and continuing through the end of 2020 as people give up on BotLT.

I'm glad to see Fleece rebounding, and I think it will be great to get it back up in the $80-100 range where a MB pull is really exciting and valuable.